Dawn of a new space race

[unhappycamper]

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/06/09/the-new-space-race/



The Long March 3B rocket carrying the Chang'e-3 lunar probe is prepared for launch at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Xichang in southwest China's Sichuan province on Sunday, Dec. 1, 2013.

Dawn of a new space race
By Adam Minter | Jun 9, 2014 8:56 pm

If and when the U.S. lands astronauts on Mars, it’s likely the red Chinese flag will be planted next to the Stars and Stripes. At least, that’s the unspoken conclusion at the heart of a National Research Council report on the future of the U.S. manned space program that was released last week.

It’s a tough message for Americans weaned on the notion that the moon landing almost 50 years ago was merely the first step toward a U.S.-dominated cosmos. Since then, funding shortages and lack of vision are leading to “failure, disillusionment, and the loss of the longstanding international perception that human spaceflight is something the United States does best,” as the NRC report says. Collaboration, including with feared rivals, may be the only way forward.

There’s no question the U.S. manned program needs a course correction. Arguably, it’s been meandering since Neil Armstrong “won” the space race in the 1960s. Since then, ambitious exploration programs have given way to expensive incrementalism in the form of a space shuttle and space station that have stranded U.S. astronauts — and humanity — in low Earth orbit. They have a view of the moon, but no rocket to get there or beyond.

From a scientific standpoint, there’s little question that unmanned space missions, such as the Mars Curiosity rover, are cheaper and more rewarding than manned flights. But, as the NRC report points out, human exploration has never been about science alone. It’s also about politics, technology and inspiration.

[DetlefK]

1. Going to moon and beyond is too expensive and not necessary right now.

A lunar base. What would it be good for?
- a better location for telescopes (no air, no dust, less luminary noise)
- a spaceport for deep space exploration
- a refinery for ³He (whose prices have been increasing drastically over the last years as supplies shrink)

A base on Mars. What would it be good for?
- colony, to ensure survival of mankind in case of terran extinction-event

Deep space exploration to the outer planets and beyond. What would it be good for?
- research
(- colony, to ensure survival of mankind in case of terran/arean extinction-event)

Those are longterm plans for a future half a century ahead.



The real problem is getting payload into orbit at an acceptable price. The Space-Shuttle-concept is a waste of money, as most of the weight that's hot into orbit returns back to Earth. The UK is currently working on the Skylon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylon_%28spacecraft%29 , a shuttle-airplane-combo, to be deployed in the 2020s.

(Space-elevator? Forget it. The only material strong enough for the rope would be carbon nanotubes (CNTs), and currently the only way to produce them is pyrolysis, which yields only very short tubes. And we don't know how to weld them together.)



And for the article:
Quote: "In the near-term, the loss is China’s. U.S. space technology and know-how is decades ahead. Longer-term, however,the balance will shift as China looks to Europe, Russia and other Asian countries for partners. The imperative for the U.S. is clear. “Given the rapid development of China’s capabilities in space,” the NRC report says, “it is in the best interests of the United States to be open to its inclusion in future international partnerships.”"
* Europe is cautious for collaborating with China for fear of espionage.
* Russia has experience and proven technology, but it's outdated.
* China can't get along with Japan for geopolitical reasons, partially dating back to WWII.
* Likewise cooperation with South-Korea would be next to impossible.
* India? Argentine? Brazil? Israel? They have the ambition, but not the money or the technology for an extended space-program.

Russia is the next-best choice and I assume, Putin will be wary to help a geopolitical rival too much, even it would displease the US.