Paris Quotas Likely Meaningless - Even If Met, 2030 World Output Still 20Gt Too High For 2C Target
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The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to hold talks in Paris at the end of 2015 in an attempt to get nations – particularly in the developed world – to agree to binding reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. This would be achieved by closing fossil-fuel power stations, building renewable energy plants and improving energy efficiency in homes and factories.
The EU, US and China – which, combined, emit the most carbon – have all indicated the likely pledges they intend to give in Paris towards cutting emissions so that by 2030 global temperatures will be limited to no more than 2C above pre-industrial levels. In carrying out their analysis, the group split countries into two groups: one including the EU, the US and China, the other made up the remaining nations. The EU has proposed cutting its carbon emissions by 40% of 1990 levels by 2030, while the US has announced that it intends to cut emissions by 26%-28% of 2005 levels by 2025. At the same time China has said it plans to stop its emissions rising beyond 2030.
The group worked out how much carbon the EU, US and China – if they keep their promises – would then be putting into the atmosphere by 2030 and concluded that they would, in total, be emitting 21-22bn tonnes a year. By contrast, the rest of the world – which includes growing economies such as Brazil and India – are likely to be emitting around 34bn tonnes, according to figures supplied by the International Energy Agency. In total, this gives a likely carbon emissions output of 55-56bn tonnes a year by 2030.
However, the maximum emissions target that has a reasonable chance of curtailing temperatures at 2C has been calculated as having a median value of about 36bn tonnes. In short, the world will still be emitting far too much carbon – an excess of some 20bn tonnes a year – to give the planet a reasonable chance of holding back the heat to a manageable level.
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http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/07/climate-summit-pledge-fail-carbon-cuts-temperature-rise
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