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OK, Place Your Bets - When Will We Last See Less Than 400 ppm? (Original Post) hatrack Apr 2014 OP
I'm going to go with October 2017 phantom power Apr 2014 #1
Sept 2016 Benton D Struckcheon Apr 2014 #2

phantom power

(25,966 posts)
1. I'm going to go with October 2017
Fri Apr 11, 2014, 12:13 PM
Apr 2014

The Keeling curve is remarkably consistent. It's mostly a matter of whether I projected it correctly with my highly advanced eyeballing.

Benton D Struckcheon

(2,347 posts)
2. Sept 2016
Fri Apr 11, 2014, 04:53 PM
Apr 2014

8 year avg for increase is .0536 of a percent. Plug that in as follows to the last Sep number, September being the yearly seasonal low for CO2, which was 393.51: 393.51*(1+.00536)^3. (On edit, added a zero. Slipped a decimal place there.) That gets you 399.87. So three years from Sep 2013 should be the last possible time you see less than 400, unless there's an economic depression, in which case you might get away with another year or two.

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