Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumSolar Storms in 2012
The forecasts for 2012 are coming out, and among the predictions: the end of the world. The truth? The world's not scheduled to end in 2012, at least not according to the Maya. That said, things could start to seem downright apocalyptic if a solar flare wipes out a power grid in your region or an atmospheric river bears down on California in a superstorm.
While there's a chance these scenarios will play out, they may not. All we know for sure is that the phenomenon known as "atmospheric rivers" exists, and that storms on the sun will get progressively more intense in 2012.
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"To make a terrestrial weather analogy, we'll be in hurricane season big-time next year," Kunches says. "We'll really be smack-dab in the season for more eruptive kind of space weather."
..cont'd
http://yearinreview.yahoo.com/2011/blog/8468/solar-storms-forecast/
DCKit
(18,541 posts)OKIsItJustMe
(19,937 posts)(Moderators, please note, NASA publicationcopyright concerns are nil.)
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-superFlares.html
Given a legitimate need to protect Earth from the most intense forms of space weather great bursts of electromagnetic energy and particles that can sometimes stream from the sun some people worry that a gigantic "killer solar flare" could hurl enough energy to destroy Earth. Citing the accurate fact that solar activity is currently ramping up in its standard 11-year cycle, there are those who believe that 2012 could be coincident with such a flare.
But this same solar cycle has occurred over millennia. Anyone over the age of 11 has already lived through such a solar maximum with no harm. In addition, the next solar maximum is predicted to occur in late 2013 or early 2014, not 2012.
Most importantly, however, even the biggest solar flares are not powerful enough to physically destroy Earth.
This is not to say that space weather can't affect our planet. The explosive heat of a solar flare can't make it all the way to our globe, but electromagnetic radiation and energetic particles certainly can. Solar flares can temporarily alter the upper atmosphere creating disruptions with signal transmission from, say, a GPS satellite to Earth causing it to be off by many yards. Another phenomenon produced by the sun could be even more disruptive. Known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), these solar explosions propel bursts of particles and electromagnetic fluctuations into Earth's atmosphere. Those fluctuations could induce electric fluctuations at ground level that could blow out transformers in power grids. The CME's particles can also collide with crucial electronics onboard a satellite and disrupt its systems.
In an increasingly technological world, where almost everyone relies on cell phones and GPS controls not just your in-car map system, but also airplane navigation and the extremely accurate clocks that govern financial transactions, space weather is a serious matter.
But it is a problem the same way hurricanes are a problem. One can protect oneself with advance information and proper precautions. During a hurricane watch, a homeowner can stay put . . . or he can seal up the house, turn off the electronics and get out of the way. Similarly, scientists at NASA and NOAA give warnings to electric companies, spacecraft operators, and airline pilots before a CME comes to Earth so that these groups can take proper precautions. Improving these predictive abilities the same way weather prediction has improved over the last few decades is one of the reasons NASA studies the sun and space weather. We can't ignore space weather, but we can take appropriate measures to protect ourselves.
And, even at their worst, the sun's flares are not physically capable of destroying Earth.[/font]
kristopher
(29,798 posts)I don't know for sure, but I read the apocalyptic talk in the OP as a tongue-in-cheek nod to extremism while its thrust was on the realistic potential for harm that your post confirms.
In an increasingly technological world, where almost everyone relies on cell phones and GPS controls not just your in-car map system, but also airplane navigation and the extremely accurate clocks that govern financial transactions, space weather is a serious matter.
OKIsItJustMe
(19,937 posts)But this same solar cycle has occurred over millennia. Anyone over the age of 11 has already lived through such a solar maximum with no harm. In addition, the next solar maximum is predicted to occur in late 2013 or early 2014, not 2012.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)It might be more appropriate to say that is your opinion of what the key passage is. The vulnerability is very real and and the fact that there was breakdown of the system last time is no guarantee of continued luck.
The timing is, IMO, less important than knowledge of the potential for widespread failure of the transmission system.
OKIsItJustMe
(19,937 posts)
late 2013 or early 2014, not 2012
Remember, the subject of the OP was Solar Storms in 2012.
"To make a terrestrial weather analogy, we'll be in hurricane season big-time next year," Kunches says. "We'll really be smack-dab in the season for more eruptive kind of space weather."
Dead_Parrot
(14,478 posts)I had no idea anyone was talking about the destruction of the planet. But with so much relying on satellite comms and more than a few powergrids hanging on by their fingernails on a good day, we might end up with a few extra corpses: The '03 blackout in the NE was mainly caused by a tree in Ohio, but claimed - at least in part - 11 lives. the '89 solar max took out a large chunk of Canada, although I don't know of any deaths from that. We don't need another 1859-ish storm to cause havoc: A repeat of 1959 would fuck us up nicely.