Why our turbulent weather is getting even harder to predict

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/apr/07/science-behind-britain-coldest-easter


Punters wrap up warm as they make their way along the river Cam in Cambridge. Photograph: Chris Radburn/PA

Britain's weather excelled itself last week. It produced an Easter Sunday that was the coldest on record in the UK. Temperatures stuck below zero in many regions; freezing conditions continued to disrupt transport; and experts warned of increasing threats to animals and birds already struggling to survive loss of habitat and climate change. The start of British Summer Time last Sunday night was marked in Braemar by temperatures that fell to -11C. For good measure, an unappetising April looks likely to follow this misery.

The persistence of the spring's grim weather is particularly striking for it comes after a series of other extreme meteorological events in recent years. Last winter, a severe drought triggered stern warnings by the Environment Agency that water rationing and hosepipe bans would soon have to be introduced – until several months of torrential rain produced widespread flooding.

Our weather, always unpredictable, is now fluctuating on a grand scale and becoming increasingly hard to forecast long-term. The challenge for meteorologists is to explain these unexpected outbreaks of climatic unpleasantness.

"There is no doubt that the recent weather has been highly changeable – on both sides of the Atlantic," said meteorologist Nicholas Klingaman of Reading University. "We have blizzards and flooding. America has had droughts and scorching temperatures."