'Sobering Facts' In UN Report Show Global Warming Targets Fading Fasthttp://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/11/21-9
'Sobering Facts' In UN Report Show Global Warming Targets Fading Fast
- Common Dreams staff
Published on Wednesday, November 21, 2012 by Common Dreams
Meeting the worldwide goal of stalling global warming at a two degree- Celsius increase by 2020 is increasingly unlikely, according a UN Environment Program (UNEP) report released Wednesday.
As countries prepare to gather next week at a major United Nations meeting on climate change in Doha, Qatar, or COP18, the UN released the new report claiming that the concentration of warming gases has increased by an alarming 20 per cent since 2000 -- emphasizing that agreements made in the Kyoto Protocol no longer keep up with the rate of warming.
"Action on climate change needs to be scaled-up and accelerated without delay if the world is to have a running chance of keeping a global average temperature rise below two degrees Celsius this century," the UN stated Wednesday.
At the current rate, as a result of subsequently inadequate provisions of Kyoto, global average temperatures could rise by three to five degrees Celsius (5.4 to 9.0 degrees Fahrenheit) this century -- far greater than the two degrees Celsius originally targeted, said the UN.
We may be coming up on the world's collective "Oh shit!" moment.
and all these new reports seem to have a median estimate or a 4*C rise by 2100 with status quo living. If as usual they are an under estimation, 4*C by 2050 or a decade later is certainly possible.
Watching the emissions concentrations for the next couple of decades should indicate the speed of rising temperatures. Also climate sensitivity should be apparent by 2050.
Certainly, the models do seem to agree on an average of 3-4*C(I'm kinda betting on the high side, though) by 2100, and that's assuming at least some action on climate change and moderate feedback. And certainly, we could hit 4*C by 2065 or so if the feedbacks do indeed play out to their worst possible extent. (2050's a bit of a stretch, though, to be honest.)
In any case, it's good to see that people are waking up.