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OKIsItJustMe

(19,933 posts)
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 06:45 PM Oct 2012

Is Thin-Film Solar Dead?

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/429497/is-thin-film-solar-dead/
[font face=Serif][font size=5]Is Thin-Film Solar Dead?[/font]

[font size=4]Despite the business woes of many startups, the technology could have a surprisingly bright future.[/font]

Kevin Bullis
Wednesday, October 10, 2012

[font size=3]When the Chinese energy giant Hanergy decided last week to buy Miasole, a Silicon Valley-based thin-film solar company, at less than a tenth the amount venture capitalists had invested in the firm, it could have been making a savvy move. Though it seems as if thin-film solar panels have no hope of competing with conventional silicon ones under today's market conditions, the technology might still have a strong future.

In recent years, the price of conventional silicon solar panels has fallen far faster than expected, and once-promising thin-film startups are going bankrupt, delaying manufacturing plans, or being bought by Asian companies for pennies on the dollar. (In addition to Hanergy, TFG Radiant, SK Innovation, Taiwan Semiconductor, and a few others have bought or taken large stakes in such companies.)

Some analysts think the companies that have been snatching up these bargains know what they're doing. The poor market conditions that have kept thin-film companies from competing may not last: when demand increases and it comes time to start building solar-panel factories again, the argument goes, the technology might have a significant advantage, because for comparably sized plants, it could cost far less to build a new thin-film factory than a conventional one.

A gigawatt-scale thin-film plant would cost $350 to 450 million, versus $1 billion for a conventional silicon plant, says Travis Bradford, a professor at Columbia University's school of international and public affairs and president of the Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development, a nonprofit research firm. (The cost estimates will vary depending on what's included in the plant. For example, if you add the cost of producing polysilicon, the equivalent to the raw materials that thin-film solar plants use, the capital cost for a silicon plant goes up to $2 billion or more, he says. But most plants buy silicon from large suppliers.)

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Is Thin-Film Solar Dead? (Original Post) OKIsItJustMe Oct 2012 OP
Thin film is not yet mature FogerRox Oct 2012 #1

FogerRox

(13,211 posts)
1. Thin film is not yet mature
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 07:10 PM
Oct 2012

Magnolia Solar hit 10% efficiency a few years ago, 20% in the lab. GE recently announced 12%. I dont see thin film attracting commercial scale investments until at least 20% can be commercially produced, more likely 25%.

The article seems to gloss over the above points

Waiting for market conditions to turn, however, is a risky strategy. The market is currently flooded with solar panels—current manufacturing capacity is more than enough to satisfy demand,


Thin film has no choice but to wait, it is not a commercially mature product.

The article should encompass the economy, silcon dumping and the difference in maturity of the 2 products. Thin film is at 10-12% efficiency, Spectrolab is producing 39% efficient terrestrial panels.

An even more telling comparison is solar vs wind, wind according to the NREL is now 3.3 to 6.5 cents per kwhr. I doubt a new coal plant could be built that matches that LCO price point, making wind the cheapest form of new generation. Solar is a ways behind. Thin film even more so.

The cheaper price points of wind are starting to attract capital by the billions, North Sea and the East coast of the US are seeing billion and multi billion dollar investments in HVDC projects to support offshore windfarms.

What the article fails to mention, is that once the conditions we find in the wind market are attained in the solar market, solar will take off. Thin film may play a huge role looking out 10 years. Thin film on east and west facing windows mayl give solar a generating window much wider than the current 9am to 3pm. Maybe 7am to 8pm in the summer.
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