The world's net oil exports are starting to decline

[GliderGuider]

Oil exports tracked production rates before 2006. Ever since 2006 - just after world oil production entered its plateau - net exports have been dropping relative to production.

The 23 exporting countries included range from Saudi Arabia with exports of 7.2 mbpd in 2010, down to Vietnam with only 0.032 mbpd exported 2010. These 23 countries ship virtually all of the oil available on the world market.

Of these, 11 countries that account for 40% of the oil on the world market are clearly past the peak of their export capability.

If you're not sure why this is important (much more important than straight Peak Oil to an importing country) check out the Export Land Model

cross-posted from Peak Oil

[FBaggins]

1. I doubt it has anything to do with the Export Land Model.

The more accurate way to look at this is that net imports are declining. This is because of increased production at importing countries along with restrained demand due to tepid economic growth and high prices.

[ashling]

2. Which other planet is the main importer of world oil?

[GliderGuider]

3. More evidence: where is the consumption happening?

Over the four years 2007-2010:

• Consumption by exporting nations rose by 2.8% even though their production fell by 0.5%
  
• Consumption by non-producing importers fell by 1.1%
  
• Consumption by oil-producing importers split the difference and rose by 0.9%

It's not that the desire for oil-driven growth has died away - the nations with excess oil are booming. The nations who need to import are being squeezed, and the more dependent they are on imports (like Europe) the worse their situation.

This is indeed the "export land" scenario ramping up.

[GliderGuider]

4. Import flows are shifting as well

Last edited Sat Mar 31, 2012, 07:08 PM - Edit history (1)

During 2007-2010 oil imports have shifted away from Europe, Japan and the USA, and towards Chindia, Singapore, Africa and oil-scarce nations in the Middle-East.

To me this seems to explain Japan's debt, Europe's imminent collapse, and the economic surge in Chindia.

It also explains the air of desperation around fracking in the US. If production slacks off or falters for even a moment, the USA may be hosed. Of course, externalities are not being factored in, so the environment in the USA is going to continue to take a pounding in the process.