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Let’s Upgrade Bill Gates’ Climate Reading List
Let’s Upgrade Bill Gates’ Climate Reading List
Andrew Beebe
Gates gave a detailed, powerful, talk about climate change at the TED conference. His explanations were clear, fun and focused. It was the kind of talk you want to bookmark and share with relatives and skeptics who might call on you to “explain this whole climate thing.” Nailed it. What’s not to love?
Gates did a great job explaining that dirty energy got us into this mess, and clean energy solutions are the core to getting us out. Well, the bummer was that despite the great explanation of our challenges, Gates missed it on the solutions message.
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Fortunately, now that the work is somewhat dated, it’s easy to show the errors in his ways. Let’s review....
<snip>
Philosophizing aside, what’s most disconcerting is when a data-driven thesis is based on false data. In analyzing solar cost data, Smil describes a seemingly asymptotic decline in the costs of solar “cells”:
Giving him the benefit of the doubt here, Smil must have confused “PV cell” costs with “total installed cost per watt of a solar system.” In 2009, PV module prices were below $2/Wp and dropping fast. Of course PV cells, a component of a module, were much less in cost per watt ($1.05/Wp)(10). More importantly, the cost reduction was not asymptotic. On the contrary, the costs plummeted further in the following years, and have dropped nearly another 75%(10). This is an important transgression, since he would have a point if he were talking about cells at this $4.50 price level, and we’d all be the worse for it. However, since the truth is quite different, his data has served to confuse and mislead people like Mr. Gates.
Smil again used false (and this time unattributed) data when referencing solar modules....
Andrew Beebe
Gates gave a detailed, powerful, talk about climate change at the TED conference. His explanations were clear, fun and focused. It was the kind of talk you want to bookmark and share with relatives and skeptics who might call on you to “explain this whole climate thing.” Nailed it. What’s not to love?
Gates did a great job explaining that dirty energy got us into this mess, and clean energy solutions are the core to getting us out. Well, the bummer was that despite the great explanation of our challenges, Gates missed it on the solutions message.
...
Unfortunately, Gates’ headline message continues to communicate that we can’t get there with today’s solutions, and therefore we need to wait for magical solutions (miracles) to be completed by others.
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Gates has specifically referenced Vaclav Smil as one of his most respected energy advisors and writers. He has sung his praises repeatedly, and others are listening. Gates’ reading list is very popular, and now people like Mark Zuckerberg reference Smil as someone they turn to as well.
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Vaclav Smil is clearly a smart man. However, his book, which appears to be the ten commandments of clean energy skepticism for Gates, is filled with significant errors. Gates appears to accept these errors as truisms: “Smil ends by listing a number of lessons that come out of the mistaken predictions of the past, all of which I agree with.”(2)
Fortunately, now that the work is somewhat dated, it’s easy to show the errors in his ways. Let’s review....
<snip>
Philosophizing aside, what’s most disconcerting is when a data-driven thesis is based on false data. In analyzing solar cost data, Smil describes a seemingly asymptotic decline in the costs of solar “cells”:
“Undoubtedly, PV cells have been getting cheaper. Modules cost more than $20 per peak watt in 1980, about $10 by 1985, and around $5 a decade later; but the price was still close to $4.50 at the end of 2009.” (9)
Giving him the benefit of the doubt here, Smil must have confused “PV cell” costs with “total installed cost per watt of a solar system.” In 2009, PV module prices were below $2/Wp and dropping fast. Of course PV cells, a component of a module, were much less in cost per watt ($1.05/Wp)(10). More importantly, the cost reduction was not asymptotic. On the contrary, the costs plummeted further in the following years, and have dropped nearly another 75%(10). This is an important transgression, since he would have a point if he were talking about cells at this $4.50 price level, and we’d all be the worse for it. However, since the truth is quite different, his data has served to confuse and mislead people like Mr. Gates.
Smil again used false (and this time unattributed) data when referencing solar modules....
https://medium.com/obvious-ventures/lets-upgrade-bill-gates-climate-reading-list-fc41a0ed3b3c#.a4c9229rd
