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Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:17 PM

Stocks are rocketing UP today! Anyone know why?

Has to be the helicopter money from FED is my guess. Because corporate earnings are going to be shitty.

33 replies, 1804 views

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Reply Stocks are rocketing UP today! Anyone know why? (Original post)
at140 Apr 2020 OP
mucifer Apr 2020 #1
jmbar2 Apr 2020 #2
at140 Apr 2020 #7
LiberalArkie Apr 2020 #3
TreadSoftly Apr 2020 #4
liberalla Apr 2020 #11
rampartc Apr 2020 #5
unblock Apr 2020 #6
at140 Apr 2020 #9
unblock Apr 2020 #12
at140 Apr 2020 #17
The Velveteen Ocelot Apr 2020 #26
at140 Apr 2020 #28
NoMoreRepugs Apr 2020 #8
LastLiberal in PalmSprings Apr 2020 #31
progree Apr 2020 #10
jmbar2 Apr 2020 #16
at140 Apr 2020 #18
progree Apr 2020 #22
Girard442 Apr 2020 #13
customerserviceguy Apr 2020 #14
FBaggins Apr 2020 #15
at140 Apr 2020 #20
FBaggins Apr 2020 #24
at140 Apr 2020 #27
Warpy Apr 2020 #19
at140 Apr 2020 #21
Warpy Apr 2020 #25
at140 Apr 2020 #29
xyoungblood Apr 2020 #23
Mike Nelson Apr 2020 #30
getagrip_already Apr 2020 #32
progree Apr 2020 #33

Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:19 PM

1. because donald fixed everything

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:21 PM

2. The big investors sold off when the market crashed (or before as in the case of the well-connected)

and now they are buying again at lower prices. The stock market is less long-term investing now, and more trading the dips and rips. IMO at least...

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Response to jmbar2 (Reply #2)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:27 PM

7. Yes, the volatility is out of this world right now

Down 400 points one day, up 500 points next day on DOW.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:22 PM

3. Maybe because Jamie Dimon's JP Morgan Chase is having a lousy 1Q

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:22 PM

4. Because Joe and Barrack came back to save the world? n/t

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Response to TreadSoftly (Reply #4)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:36 PM

11. This was my first thought, but I'm not a financial expert...

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:23 PM

5. trump is dumping money onto wall st from a helicopter

to prove how great capitalism is!

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:26 PM

6. somewhat encouraging data from china, somewhat encouraging outlook from the banks

i think there's a sense that the worst has already been priced in.

any hint that the economy might start to reopen even slightly earlier than what's already priced in would cause a rise.

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Response to unblock (Reply #6)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:29 PM

9. Probably as good reasons as any!

because they say market is looking ahead, not in the rear view mirror.
However I just can't see how corporate earnings will be awful in 2nd & 3rd quarter.

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Response to at140 (Reply #9)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:37 PM

12. the recovery will be interesting because this is a disaster for many companies but huge for others

businesses that depend on foot traffic and close proximity to customers are obviously hit hard -- dine-in restaurants, barbers, nail salons, etc. mostly local businesses. but they have suppliers who will suffer as well.

on the other hand, companies like domino's and amazon are doing great as they were always delivery services, which is doing just fine right now.

i expect the "winners" will do really well, and there will be a ton of consolidation among the "losers". to some extent this happens in all recessions/recoveries, but the contrast will be very stark this time. in most recessions, nearly all companies are affected. this disaster is more like a tornado, where some houses remain intact while other are obliterated.

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Response to unblock (Reply #12)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 02:25 PM

17. Yes, Amazon hit a new ALL TIME HIGH today...go figure

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Response to at140 (Reply #17)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 05:05 PM

26. That isn't surprising. People who would normally be shopping in stores

are ordering online instead.

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #26)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 05:12 PM

28. Yes, what I was trying to say is Amazon is doing great in spite of the economy.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:27 PM

8. Wall Street groupthink is that a very large portion of the 2trillion of initial

money is going into buybacks and loan repayments... hence, their coffers.

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Response to NoMoreRepugs (Reply #8)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 05:36 PM

31. But the law says the money can't be used for buybacks and bonuses ... oh, never mind!

Just look at what Fat Donnie did seconds after he signed the bill into law. He issued a signing statement saying he wouldn't obey the oversight requirement.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:31 PM

10. This one says it's due to short covering

Opinion: The force thatís propelled the stock market rally will exhaust itself this week, By Nigam Arora, MarketWatch, 4/14/20
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-force-thats-propelled-the-stock-market-rally-will-exhaust-itself-this-week-2020-04-13?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

FWIW.

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Response to progree (Reply #10)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 02:01 PM

16. Interesting

I'm also suspecting that this is just a dead cat bounce. The underlying fundamentals are bad for the foreseeable future.

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Response to progree (Reply #10)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 02:27 PM

18. Let me just say this...

anyone who claims to know where stock market is going next is either a fool or looking to pick your pockets.

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Response to at140 (Reply #18)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 04:11 PM

22. Everyone seems to have an opinion based on their favorite metrics or ideological predispositions

Last edited Tue Apr 14, 2020, 04:58 PM - Edit history (1)

or whatever. I think it is headed generally down. I think we're headed for a severe recession (and I'm not talking about something that lasts just a couple of months, obviously we're in that now), and the market hasn't priced that in yet. Most in financial pundit-land seem to think that the worst is behind us. And obviously so do investors in general -- with the S&P 500 (2846) up 23.5% from its March 20 bottom (2305), as of today's close.

Then there are the perma-bears (many in this group) that have been yammering about Shillers CAPE ratio or Buffett's total U.S. stock market valuation to GDP ratio since about 2014. And bubble this and bubble that and bubble bubble bubble. And of course the orange shit-gibbon indicator ever since Nov 8, 2016 (S&P 500 closed that afternoon at 2140).

So be it, the tug of war between the bulls and the bears.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:39 PM

13. Betcha a little bird told the big money guys Donnie is going to announce something today.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:43 PM

14. Yep

Helicopter money is fueling this sucker rally. I'm sure that first time unemployment numbers are going to skyrocket again this week. It must be hell to have to deal with most of the state UC offices, who were probably caught flat-footed by the C-19 crisis.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 01:44 PM

15. Stocks can go up when "corporate earnings are shitty"

If they are less so than what was anticipated.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #15)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 02:31 PM

20. Yes true for 1st Quarter. Covid-19 became did not become a crisis until middle of March.

I was on a cruise ending February 29th, and no one was talking about covid-19.
Except for outfits who sell on line like Amazon, Walmart etc, profits for 2nd and 3rd quarters will be simply horrible.
Boeing for example is losing plane orders by the hundreds from cancellations.

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Response to at140 (Reply #20)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 04:35 PM

24. It had a serious market impact in mid Feb.

Nobody may have been worried about it on a cruise... but companies that had supply-chain impacts from China were already tumbling.

Except for outfits who sell on line like Amazon, Walmart etc, profits for 2nd and 3rd quarters will be simply horrible.

Sure... but "simply horrible" isn't enough information. What will the impact be on earnings a year from now? Two years from now? How do those expectations compare to the expectations the market had yesterday?

A cruise line that I've used is up >50% in the last couple weeks... but that's still down almost 75% from where they were in January. Their chance of ending up bankrupt is still substantial... but not AS substantial as two weeks ago. That doesn't mean that their next couple quarters won't be "simply horrible". It could be as simple as "their chance of survival went from 10% to 25%"

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #24)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 05:11 PM

27. There is a saying about Wall Street

(paraphrasing) Best opportunities to buy stocks is when there is blood in the streets. Yes, in mid-Feb the news was mainly from China being shut down, not so much US companies. My February 24th cruise was never going to be cancelled and we did not cancel it either. They did make us sign a form saying we had not traveled to China recently.

In March the market hit a low and it was the time when blood was running in the streets. It was the time to buy cruise company stocks. I should have bought cruise company stocks because I know cruise travel after almost 35 cruises so far. But like everyone else, I was scared what covid-19 was going to do to the economy.

2nd quarter will be horrible for companies like Boeing (hundreds of orders cancelled), airlines (people will not fly in crowded planes), Hotels, oil companies, auto's, etc.

Now when I say earnings will be horrible does not mean stock prices will be horrible. Market is typically looking ahead 6 months. Market was low in March. Which means economy will be low 6 months later, in September. And market is seeing a recovery in October based on recent performance. Market is not accurate 100% of the times, just 90% of the time.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 02:30 PM

19. Irrational exuberance over the diversion of the Covid aid package

to megacorporations and billionaires. Some investors think the worst is over and it's time to snap up stocks on the cheap.

I think they're wrong. Dummy can't just snap his stubby fingers and declare the economy open and expect it to run smoothly.

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Response to Warpy (Reply #19)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 02:36 PM

21. I did buy a few weeks back, but keeping some cash in reserve

There is a possibility reality will hit hard by end of summer.l

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Response to at140 (Reply #21)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 05:00 PM

25. Yes, when people are down to the last dried bean in the corner of a cupboard

their jobs haven't come back, and the unemployment has run out.

This is not going to be an easy time to live through for any of us. It's going to be especially tough for low wage workers who saw the support Congress voted for them going to a bunch of fat cats to prop up the stock market.

It also is likely what it will take to get rid of the cult that screwed everything up.

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Response to Warpy (Reply #25)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 05:17 PM

29. For the sake of low wage workers, I hope the economy does come back

All will depend on what is the death toll by end of June, and how wisely the country is opened up. There are plenty of possibilities to screw it all up.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 04:18 PM

23. google the federal reserve

 

They have been giving the banks trillions of dollars for the purchase of securities. They are trying to counter the falling market by re-inflating the market bubble. For Trump and the Republicans? Maybe and probably. Will it work? Nope, it's gonna pop again and worse this time, we are intertwined in the global economy and the Covid-19 virus is going to throw the world to another great depression, the U.S. taxpayers bailed out our banks in 2008, other countries didn't and their banks have been teetering on the edge for the past 12 years. Read some global news. Economists in other countries are telling their citizens to prepare, here in the U.S. the rich are reinvesting, drawing common folk back into the market...guess who is going to get the early news when the Federal Reserve decides to start selling its securities and collapse the market again? Not us commoners.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 05:23 PM

30. Well...

... Obama and Bernie endorsed Biden!

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Tue Apr 14, 2020, 05:45 PM

32. The fed is buying stock and transfering it back to the companies at no cost....

Similar to how they are washing bonds, they are washing stocks. It's the only way to sustain the market at inflated rates.

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #32)

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