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Tansy_Gold

(17,852 posts)
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 06:08 PM Feb 2012

STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Thursday, 2 February 2012


[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, 2 February 2012[/font]


SMW for 1 February 2012

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 1 February 2012
[center][font color=green]
Dow Jones 12,716.46 +83.55 (0.66%)
S&P 500 1,324.09 +11.68 (0.89%)
Nasdaq 2,848.27 +34.43 (1.22%)



[font color=red]10 Year 1.83% +0.02 (1.10%)
30 Year 2.99% +0.04 (1.36%)





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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = [/font][font color=red]12[/font]


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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red]


61 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Thursday, 2 February 2012 (Original Post) Tansy_Gold Feb 2012 OP
Firm Open Called For Asian Markets On Thursday Ghost Dog Feb 2012 #1
It Don’t Mean a Thing If You Ain’t Got that Swing Ghost Dog Feb 2012 #2
Wake up Campers! It's GROUNDHOG DAY! Demeter Feb 2012 #3
Have we got a theme for the weekend! It's a gem! Demeter Feb 2012 #4
Present and accounted for! hamerfan Feb 2012 #22
We watched that last night. Our littlest one made a "pop-up" groundhog in school yesterday Roland99 Feb 2012 #31
And here I thought this deja vu in the clinic.... AnneD Feb 2012 #38
Goldman Sachs is a “Sell" Eric Fry Demeter Feb 2012 #5
Gupta tips started earlier, prosecutors allege Demeter Feb 2012 #9
"Manufacturing Growth" Continues By Chuck Butler QUOTES ADDED--DEMETER Demeter Feb 2012 #6
Facebook to raise $5bn in IPO Demeter Feb 2012 #7
Karl Denninger: "FB": DO NOT BUY DemReadingDU Feb 2012 #19
Not to mention the fact that its "product" is useless, pointless, and can be harmful Demeter Feb 2012 #21
Never underestimate the greed Tansy_Gold Feb 2012 #28
Max Keiser.... AnneD Feb 2012 #39
MF Global risk chief urged caution on trades Demeter Feb 2012 #8
Affinity fraud; Fleecing the flock: The big business of swindling people who trust you Demeter Feb 2012 #10
Europe signs up to German-led fiscal pact Demeter Feb 2012 #11
Michael Hudson: The Man Who Fired Greenspan Demeter Feb 2012 #12
Yet More Mortgage Settlement Lies: Release Looks Broad, Not Narrow; Other States Screwed to Bribe CA Demeter Feb 2012 #13
Holder & Obama’s Propaganda “Belied by a Troublesome Little Thing Called Facts” By William K. Black Demeter Feb 2012 #14
What a Strong Servicer Settlement Looks Like By Abigail Caplovitz Field Demeter Feb 2012 #16
Attorney General Champs, Chumps, and Eric Schneiderman By Abigail Caplovitz Field Demeter Feb 2012 #18
But, just think of how hard it is to raise a billion bucks in campaign contributions! Fuddnik Feb 2012 #20
First off let me say good morning to all. Second.... Hotler Feb 2012 #35
And that my friend.... AnneD Feb 2012 #41
French banks would come to Britain to avoid tax: Cameron Demeter Feb 2012 #15
Summers: “Inside Job had essentially all its facts wrong” By Felix Salmon Demeter Feb 2012 #17
GUILLOTINE! n/t Hotler Feb 2012 #37
Asian Shares Rally As U.S. Data Boosts Risk Appetite Ghost Dog Feb 2012 #23
European shares firm, debt auctions eyed Ghost Dog Feb 2012 #24
Some of Today's Reports Ghost Dog Feb 2012 #25
GBP/USD drops on weak UK construction PMI Ghost Dog Feb 2012 #26
Shell profits soar 54% to £18bn Ghost Dog Feb 2012 #27
i wake up to learn there will be 6 more weeks of winter... xchrom Feb 2012 #29
Not here Demeter Feb 2012 #44
we need to move phil to your place...stat! nt xchrom Feb 2012 #46
Replacing Factories With Jails: Just 44% of Milwaukee’s Black Men in Workforce xchrom Feb 2012 #30
And then, With Forced Labor--Voila! Slavery Returns! Demeter Feb 2012 #47
+1 xchrom Feb 2012 #48
And it's bi-partisan to boot. Fuddnik Feb 2012 #51
American Airlines to cut 13,000 jobs xchrom Feb 2012 #32
AMR playing "jingle mail" with their debt (like some homeowners) Roland99 Feb 2012 #34
+1 xchrom Feb 2012 #36
After seeing the crooks .... AnneD Feb 2012 #55
Oil down 1% to $96.61/bbl. Gas prices here about $0.25 shy last summer's highs. Roland99 Feb 2012 #33
They are ginning up... AnneD Feb 2012 #42
Oil ends at six-week low after supply rise Roland99 Feb 2012 #43
I thought I remembered .... AnneD Feb 2012 #54
Miss Demeter, your prediction of the shit hitting the fan.... Hotler Feb 2012 #40
The end has been near for awhile. DemReadingDU Feb 2012 #45
I live in anticipation Demeter Feb 2012 #49
This explains why Goldman is Cannibalizing itself Demeter Feb 2012 #52
Just remember folks... AnneD Feb 2012 #56
Actually OBama is much like FDR, FDR had one advantage, a HUGE Democratic majority in Congress happyslug Feb 2012 #57
Obama did have a Dem Congress AnneD Feb 2012 #58
Obama's Democratic Congress was no where near as left wing as the Congresses of the 1930s happyslug Feb 2012 #59
Sorry, just skimming the posts, hamerfan Feb 2012 #60
My point was FDR was to the RIGHT of Congress happyslug Feb 2012 #61
Workers pay as prophets of austerity gain sway xchrom Feb 2012 #50
The inbox is overflowing Demeter Feb 2012 #53
 

Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
1. Firm Open Called For Asian Markets On Thursday
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 07:58 PM
Feb 2012

WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - The Asian stock markets are looking at a higher open on Thursday following solid economic data from the United States. Payroll processor ADP reported a continued increase in private sector employment in January, while the Institute for Supply Management showed a continued expansion in manufacturing activity in January, with the index of activity in the sector reaching a seven-month high.

The major U.S. averages ended firmly in positive territory on Tuesday as the Dow rose 83.55 points or 0.7 percent to finish at 12,716.46, while the NASDAQ jumped 34.43 points or 1.2 percent to 2,848.27 and the S&P 500 advanced 11.67 points or 0.9 percent to 1,324.08. The major European markets also moved higher as the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index jumped by 1.9 percent, while the French CAC 40 Index and the German DAX Index surged up by 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-02/22599894-firm-open-called-for-asian-markets-on-thursday-020.htm

 

Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
2. It Don’t Mean a Thing If You Ain’t Got that Swing
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 08:03 PM
Feb 2012

You’ve heard the old saying that no two financial market periods are ever exactly alike, but they do “rhyme”. Of course this characterizes the fact that human decision making is repetitive over time; hence there are certain rhythmic similarities in historic financial market outcomes. Financial market outcomes that are necessarily dependent on human decision making. One exercise I believe is important in each market cycle is to get a feel for individual cycle rhythm and drivers of that rhythm. As an example, clearly in the current economic and financial market cycle US and global central banker intervention has punctuated directional rhythm of markets throughout. If the following chart does not exemplify this, I don’t know what does.

[center][/center]

Has the rhythm of the financial market mimicked the rhythm of monetary policy application and withdrawal? Almost like clockwork. I inserted the red bars to make a point. At least so far, each round of US Fed money printing (quantitative easing) has had a very positive impact on stock prices, but with diminishing duration of positive impact at each money printing interval. The latest Fed balance sheet experiment that is the current dollar swap arrangement with the European Central Bank (ECB) is now only two months old. The ECB’s balance sheet expansion that is the LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) is now a month old. How long the recent reflationary actions by the US and European Central Banks will positively impact equities remains to be seen. A potential truncated positive impact on equities in the next few months would strongly suggest these interventions are simply no longer packing the punch originally seen early in this cycle, but we’re not there yet so stay tuned. Certainly central bank actions have shaped the rhythm of financial markets. A fingerprint of the current cycle...

... I’ve heard it said by a pundit or two in this cycle that “there are no more free markets, just interventions”. Pretty easy to understand why someone would characterize the prior three years as such, no? In quick summation, undoubtedly one of the key drivers of both financial market and economic rhythm in the current cycle has been global central banker monetary interventions. The message is more than clear and we incorporate this reality into our own decision making.

Personally, I believe another very important rhythmic character point of the current cycle has been the ebb and flow in shorter term investor focus at any point in time between secular (long term and big picture) issues of importance and interim cyclical (shorter term business cycle) acceleration or deceleration in economic statistics and reported corporate earnings. Let me explain...

/Continues... http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/brian-pretti/it-do-not-mean-a-thing-if-you-do-not-got-that-swing

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
4. Have we got a theme for the weekend! It's a gem!
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 08:25 PM
Feb 2012

And I'll need lots of help picking appropriate musical numbers from all you Stoners out there...

Roland99

(53,342 posts)
31. We watched that last night. Our littlest one made a "pop-up" groundhog in school yesterday
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 09:31 AM
Feb 2012

He was SO excited to watch the events this morning!

AnneD

(15,774 posts)
38. And here I thought this deja vu in the clinic....
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 11:46 AM
Feb 2012

was just a bug going around. This little cinematic jem is one of my favs. I tend to like stories of change and redemption. Wishful thinking on my part for some folks.

But then the part of the movie that was most profound is when the homeless man died, which seems paradoxical. But if you think about it, the only one you can really ever change is yourself. You can help and maybe influence others, but you are the instrument of your own change.

Whew, too early for such deep thoughts, esp without You have me going all Zen Buddahist on you before 10:00. Maybe that is a good sign and maybe a weekend theme.

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
5. Goldman Sachs is a “Sell" Eric Fry
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 08:45 PM
Feb 2012
http://dailyreckoning.com/goldman-sachs-is-a-sell/

For once, we agree with the insiders at Goldman Sachs. The company’s stock is a “Sell.”...Okay, so the insiders didn’t exactly say their stock is a “sell,” but they didn’t need to. Their feet did all the talking. Last week, nine Goldman insiders scurried away from their stock as fast as the law would let them. They cashed out $20 million worth of stock at an average price of $107.44. This is the very same stock (NYSE:GS) that Goldman — on behalf of its shareholders — spent $21 billion buying over the last five years. The average price of those purchases was about $171 per share. Here’s our question: Why is Goldman’s stock a “Buy” for shareholders at $171 a share, but a “Sell” for insiders at $107 per share?

....................................

First data point: Goldman’s revenues and earnings are falling even faster than its reputation. Two weeks ago, the company reported a whopping 58% drop in fourth quarter earnings, compared to 2010.



Change in Goldman Sachs' 4th Quarter Earnings by Division

This latest quarterly report punctuates a troubling three-year trend. Goldman’s full-year net income hit a record $13.4 billion in 2009, then slipped to $8.4 billion in 2010 before tumbling to $4.4 billion last year. Reflecting this downward earnings trend, Goldman’s share price has plummeted from its 2009 high of $192 to the current quote of $111. Perhaps the stock has now reached “deep value” territory. Then again, cheap stocks have a way of becoming even cheaper when a company’s core operations are in “deep trouble” territory. Goldman’s core operations may not yet be in deep trouble, but they seem to be wading into shallow trouble, at least. Strangely, the worse Goldman’s operations perform, the more aggressively the company repurchases its own shares. During 2009 and 2010, Goldman spent 71% of its net income buying back its stock. But last year, the company spent a whopping 264% of net income buying its stock. Even after excluding the repurchase of preferred stock from Warren Buffet, Goldman still spent a hefty 140% of its net income buying its own shares last year — double the rate of 2009-10.



Goldman Sachs Spends 100% of Net Income Buying Back Own Stock Over Last 3 Years

Furthermore, Goldman did not buy back its stock very opportunistically. In other words, Goldman did not “buy low.” The company paid an average of $128.33 for the shares it acquired in 2011, compared to a low tick for the year of $84.27 and a current quote of $111. Is it not a little strange that the same Wall Street firm that is supposed to be packed to the ceiling with genius traitors couldn’t trade its own stock any better than a raw amateur? When stewards of the company are trying to build shareholder value through a share-repurchase strategy, they usually try to buy their stock on weakness...and only on weakness. By contrast, when the stewards are trying to build personal checking account value, they buy their stock aggressively, no matter the price. Just maybe, Goldman’s “investment” in its own stock was executed so carelessly and unprofitably (so far) because it had nothing to do with investing, but everything to do with lifting the stock to levels that would reward Goldman’s stock-laden partners.

Last week, the top brass at Goldman cashed in $20 million worth of stock that had been “locked up” for the last three years. (The nine privileged recipients also received another $27 million in stock that they did not sell immediately). “Starting in 2009,” Reuters explains, “Wall Street banks began shifting more of their bonus awards into stock that executives are required to hold for multi- year periods in an effort to align incentives with long-term performance.” But as it turns out, “aligning incentives” is trickier than it sounds, especially if management is repulsed by the idea of aligning its incentives with the common shareholder. Under the new and improved “aligned incentives” era at Goldman, for example, the top insiders still found a way to enrich themselves at the shareholders’ expense. The only shareholders to enjoy an alignment of incentives were the ones in the mirror...As noted above, Goldman’s management spent $21 billion of the shareholders’ capital buying GS stock in the open market at an average price of $171 a share. Today, the stock sells for $111. On a mark-to-market basis, therefore, Goldman’s stock buy-back “investment” has produced a loss of about $7.3 billion for shareholders — or more than the company’s total net income during the last five quarters! That’s the bad news. The good news is that these share purchases helped support the share price so that the top nine guys at Goldman could sell their stock for $20 million....Goldman’s CFO, David Viniar begs to differ. Two weeks ago, when discussing Goldman’s share re-purchases in 2011, he said he felt “relatively certain that at some point we’re going to wish we bought back more.” No doubt! Viniar still holds more than one million shares of GS! CEO Blankfein holds more than two million shares. “Aha!” the Goldman apologists might say, “You see, their incentives are aligned with shareholders.” “Think again,” we would reply, “If this particular crew of insiders did not hold so much Goldman stock, they probably would not be blowing so much of their shareholders’ capital buying it. But these particular insiders have demonstrated repeatedly that they will squander shareholder capital to pay almost any price for GS, while they, for their own accounts, will unload GS at almost any price.” If incentives were truly aligned, you would never observe a gaping spread between what the shareholder pays for his stock and what the insider is willing to receive for his stock. If the stock is a “Buy” for shareholders at $171 a share, then it is also a “Buy” for Lloyd Blankfein and David Viniar at the same price, or any price below that level. But the last three times these guys unloaded large chunks of stock — August 11, 2010, January 25, 2011 and last week — they realized average prices per share of $150, $162 and $107....On the other hand, if the stock is a “Sell” at $107 for insiders, why did the company spend $6 billion in 2011 to pay $128 per share for the stock?...Goldman continued churning through its precious capital to re-purchase its own shares. This process has contributed to a steady erosion of its Tier 1 Capital ratios since early 2010.



Goldman Share Buybacks since 2009 vs. Goldman Tier 1 Capital

Although Goldman’s Tier 1 capital still remains relatively healthy, it is moving in the wrong direction. During the last two years, most major financial institutions have been ramping up their Tier 1 capital — i.e. strengthening their balance sheets. But not Goldman. In fact, as of year-end 2011, Goldman’s Tier 1 capital — at 13.8% — had dropped to within a whisker of Citigroup’s — at 13.6%.



The 2-Year Change in Tier 1 Capital at Various Financial Institutions

A 13.8% capital ratio may be just fine in most market environments, but it is hardly disaster-proof. For perspective, Goldman’s Tier 1 ratio was 11.6% on the eve of the 2008 credit crisis. That “conservative” capital buffer would have sent Goldman into bankruptcy during the crisis, were it not for the infinite Tier 1 capital of the US Treasury...The US stock market may be a “Buy,” just as O’Neill predicts. But Goldman is a “Sell”...until the day it disappears completely.
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
9. Gupta tips started earlier, prosecutors allege
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 09:08 PM
Feb 2012


Former Goldman board member is alleged to have passed inside information about the bank’s earnings to Rajaratnam in 2007

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/6NPSBB/NJ6YK2/JQU4J/AMYYFA/IITH83/D5/t?a1=2012&a2=2&a3=1
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
6. "Manufacturing Growth" Continues By Chuck Butler QUOTES ADDED--DEMETER
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 08:53 PM
Feb 2012
http://dailyreckoning.com/manufacturing-growth-continues/

After watching time and time again, the overseas markets take the dollar to the woodshed, and then when the New York traders come in, the price action all gets reversed. I thought to myself, “Self, doesn’t it look like New York traders have orders from the top of the house to make sure the dollar doesn’t fall off a cliff? Why, yes, self, it does look like that!” Now let’s get back to reality…

Here’s an illustration that shows us just how dumb the markets are these days… Yes, I know they’re always right… but in all my days as a currency analyst, trader and writer, what happened yesterday would have never happened before 2008…

First of all — for one of the few times recently — consumer confidence surprised the experts who thought it would rise by a large margin, by falling by a large margin! I don’t want these things to happen… I just want what’s the correct reaction to happen… And given what the Fed Heads had to say, real unemployment at 23% and home prices still falling, consumer confidence should fall… and, finally, it did! But what happened afterward is just not right!

Pre-2008, a weak consumer confidence report would have sent the dollar to the woodshed, and currencies and metals onto the rally tracks… But not any longer, it seems… That bad stuff in the U.S. (except quantitative easing) sends the markets to dollars… stranger than fiction… but it is what it is, and we have to deal with it!

MORE AT LINK
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
7. Facebook to raise $5bn in IPO
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 08:55 PM
Feb 2012

Facebook launched the process for its highly anticipated coming-out, filing papers for its initial public offering, and revealing for the first time details of its business that it has, until now, guarded fiercely.

The offering will turn several key shareholders into billionaires, most notably Mark Zuckerberg, the company’s 27-year old chief executive and co-founder, whose 28.2 per cent stake in the company could make him worth more than $22.5bn, based on secondary market trading that values Facebook at $80bn.

The company said it would raise $5bn in the offering, a figure that is likely to rise before the actual public debut, making the social networking giant’s listing the largest in the internet industry since Google.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/UXDMSS/B5FZZ3/XBAN6/16ZZYD/IIT0SP/50/t?a1=2012&a2=2&a3=1

DemReadingDU

(16,000 posts)
19. Karl Denninger: "FB": DO NOT BUY
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 10:18 PM
Feb 2012

2/1/12 Karl Denninger: "FB": DO NOT BUY

Ok folks, it's not often that I issue a rank do not buy statement on an S-1 (in fact, since starting the Ticker I can't recall ever doing it) but this is one where I feel I need to.

It's Facebook.

I'm basing this on one, and only one, criteria -- the rate of acquisition of new accounts is slowing.

That's all I need to know and it should be all you need to know -- the company filed the S-1 as soon as they detected this slowdown in December.

In addition participation is narrowing; there were 1.74 users monthly per daily user in 2011, but 1.86 a year prior.

These are potential signs of leveling off. The deal with almost-certainly price assuming a ridiculous price to sales and price to earnings multiple, which means that the growth numbers must be maintained as the P/E/G ratio will be in the stratosphere.

If it's not you're going to get your head cut off.

more...
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=201409


 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
21. Not to mention the fact that its "product" is useless, pointless, and can be harmful
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 02:42 AM
Feb 2012

I will be surprised if it actually sells out.

AnneD

(15,774 posts)
39. Max Keiser....
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 11:48 AM
Feb 2012

has been all over that puppy for some time now. I don't have the episode #'s but suffice it to say you have been warned.

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
8. MF Global risk chief urged caution on trades
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 09:07 PM
Feb 2012

Michael Stockman, the failed brokerage’s risk officer, plans to testify to Congress that he recommended hedging the group’s European exposure

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/6NPSBB/NJ6YK2/JQU4J/AMYYFA/FKU1HL/D5/t?a1=2012&a2=2&a3=1
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
10. Affinity fraud; Fleecing the flock: The big business of swindling people who trust you
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 09:23 PM
Feb 2012

NO, IT'S NOT ABOUT THE O MAN, BUT IT COULD BE...MAYBE SHOULD BE

http://www.economist.com/node/21543526

WITH a nudge from their pastor, the 25,000 members of the New Birth Missionary Baptist Church near Atlanta opened their hearts, and their wallets, to Ephren Taylor. And why not, given his glittering credentials? Mr Taylor billed himself as the youngest black chief executive of a publicly traded company in American history. He had appeared on NPR and CNN. He had given a talk on socially conscious investing at the Democratic National Convention. Snoop Dogg, a rapper, had tapped him to manage a charitable endowment.

So when Mr Taylor’s “Wealth Tour Live” seminars came to town, faithful ears opened wide. Eddie Long, the mega-church’s leader, introduced Mr Taylor at one event with the words: “[God] wants you to be a mover and shaker…to finance you well to do His will.” Mr Taylor offered “low-risk investment with high performances”, chosen with guidance from God.

Divine inspiration, alas, has given way to legal tribulation. For many investors, the 20% guaranteed returns proved illusory. Mr Taylor (whereabouts unknown) stands accused of fraud in a number of lawsuits. Bishop Long, a co-defendant, has urged Mr Taylor to “do the right thing” and cover any losses. The charges are not the first blot on the minister’s reputation: last year he settled for an estimated $15m-25m claims that he had coerced young men into oral sex...

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
11. Europe signs up to German-led fiscal pact
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 09:24 PM
Feb 2012
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/30/us-eu-summit-idUSTRE80S0SR20120130

Chancellor Angela Merkel cemented her political ascendancy in Europe on Monday when 25 out of 27 EU states agreed to a German-inspired pact for stricter budget discipline, even as they struggled to rekindle growth from the ashes of austerity.

Only Britain and the Czech Republic refused to sign a fiscal compact in March that will impose quasi-automatic sanctions on countries that breach European Union budget deficit limits and will enshrine balanced budget rules in national law.

The accord was eagerly greeted by the European Central Bank which has long pressed euro zone governments to put their houses in order.

"It is the first step towards a fiscal union. It certainly will strengthen confidence in the euro area," ECB President Mario Draghi said.....

RIIIGHT...
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
12. Michael Hudson: The Man Who Fired Greenspan
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 09:27 PM
Feb 2012
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/michael-hudson-the-man-who-fired-greenspan.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

This is the transcript of an interview with Michael Hudson in an Australian film, discussing a 1966 incident:

... MH: They increased it largely by having Alan Greenspan create the Greenspan Commission to look at social security and pushing the myth that social security had to be funded out of pre savings, so American labour was essentially taxed 11% between itself and the employers to pay social security and this vast increase in social security taxes was used to lend to the Government(US) to provide it with enough money to slash taxes on the rich and that was Greenspan’s ploy.

He was rewarded by being made head of the Federal Reserve for his actual hatred of labour and his desire that you had to reduce living standards in order to increase the profits of capital.

And so Greenspan was sort of the hack that was hired.

When I was on Wall Street, Greenspan was hired as part of a study I was doing on the balance of payments of the Oil Industry. And one day my boss, John Deaver came into my office and said he really worried about Greenspan being a part of this report because he was known as a hack that always gave …his clients what they wanted instead of something actual.

So he (JD) gave me Greenspan’s figures on depreciation of oil producing refinery assets in Europe and asked me to find out where the faking is? He said he couldn’t believe that Greenspan by himself wouldn’t of just faked the figures and it took me about a week to figure out where the faking of the figures came out (from) and that was Greenspan had simply picked up depreciation rates relative to output for the United States and projected them onto Europe.

So I went over and talked to his assistant Lucille Woo and she said “it’s all implicit, all implicit” and I confronted her with it and she said “Yes that’s what we did”!

And so, Greenspan was indeed ‘talked off the study’ and we met… John Deaver, David Rockefeller and myself and I was told…Greenspan was such a little bastard that if they fired him, he’d hold a grudge against Chase Manhattan for years and they told me to be the guy to give him the news that we couldn’t use his (laughs) statistics on it and I was a 25 year old economist at the time and he hardly new me at all, so I was the guy that…subsequently became known as ‘the man who fired Alan Greenspan’.
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
14. Holder & Obama’s Propaganda “Belied by a Troublesome Little Thing Called Facts” By William K. Black
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 09:30 PM
Feb 2012
http://www.neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/01/holder-obamas-propaganda-is-belied-by.html

The Obama administration’s record of prosecuting elite financial frauds is worse than the Bush administration’s record, which is a very large statement. Syracuse University’s TRAC issued a report on November 11, 2011 entitled “Criminal Prosecutions for Financial Institution Fraud Continue to Fall.”

Neither administration has prosecuted any elite CEO for the epidemic of mortgage fraud that drove the ongoing crisis. This contrasts with over 1,000 elite felony convictions arising from the S&L debacle. The ongoing crisis caused losses more than 70 times greater than the S&L debacle and the amount of elite fraud driving this crisis is also vastly greater than during the S&L debacle. Bank CEOs leading “accounting control frauds” now do so with impunity from the criminal laws. They become wealthy through fraud and even if they are sued civilly they almost invariably walk away wealthy with the proceeds of their frauds.

The Obama Administration Prefers Politics and Propaganda to Prosecutions

Elite financial institutions officers engaged in fraud face a dramatically reduced risk of prosecution compared to 20 years ago when financial fraud was far less common. TRAC reports that the number of financial institution fraud prosecutions under Obama is less than one-half the number 20 years ago. Bush (II) was slightly better than Obama in prosecuting non-elite financial institution frauds, but both were pathetically bad.

The New York Times reported on January 23, 2012 that the administration rushed to try to reach a settlement with the five largest banks that engaged in massive foreclosure fraud so that it could take credit for it in the State of the Union (SOTU) address. The headline for the article was “Political Push Moves a Deal on Mortgages Inches Closer.” The administration did not deny the statements made in the article...

MORE
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
16. What a Strong Servicer Settlement Looks Like By Abigail Caplovitz Field
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 09:39 PM
Feb 2012
http://abigailcfield.com/?p=859


CLUE: NOTHING AT ALL LIKE THE PROPOSED ONE
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
18. Attorney General Champs, Chumps, and Eric Schneiderman By Abigail Caplovitz Field
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 09:50 PM
Feb 2012
http://abigailcfield.com/?p=845?

...In the Attorney General law enforcement champions category–the people David Dayen calls “Justice Democrats”–we have Delaware’s Beau Biden, who again rejected the “settlement” between bailed out banks, the Justice Department, and miscellaneous attorneys general, and California AG Kamala Harris, who did too. Note: Harris’s such a champ she had the strength to reject an obvious, and large bribe in the process. Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto has not, to my knowledge, reaffirmed her rejection of the “settlement”, but she’s been so fiercely law and order it’s hard to imagine her caving to the pressure to cut the banks loose. Massachusetts’s Martha Coakley doesn’t seem likely to play ball either. (I put “settlement” in quotes because it vacillates from imminent to off the table seemingly by the week, and its terms remain somewhat in flux.)

If those are the champs, who are the chumps? Well, any state attorney general who isn’t willing to stand with Biden, Harris, Masto, and Coakley, as a general matter. Several have made noise, however, about taking action; a couple of weeks ago Oregon, Maryland, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Missouri, Montana and Mississippi were meeting with the “Justice Democrats” about coordinating investigations and enforcement. So that could be nine new champs, if they survive the pressure from the Obama Administration to take the deal. If you live in any of those states, please give them a call and tell them to reject the “settlement.”

Google your state and “attorney general”, surf their site and you’ll find contact info. The National Association of Attorneys General has contact info for every state, but you may find a better number on your AG’s site. Besides, you really should cruise your Attorney General’s website if you haven’t recently. Learn about your rights; about how to report violations of your rights, and about which violations are so common or otherwise prioritized that the AG is on the lookout for victims, providing helpful information and a way to make a complaint.

Back to the chumps. Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi is a chump. I recently explained why I consider her the BFF of foreclosure fraudsters. But she’s worth calling out again because she just called Justice Democrat CA AG Kamala Harris a liar. Specifically, AG Bondi said, “”The settlement under discussion contains all the elements California purports to be looking for; transparency, substantial relief for distressed homeowners, and strict enforcement.” Since AG Harris had already rejected the suit saying “We’ve reviewed the details of the latest settlement proposal, and we believe it is inadequate for California,” AG Bondi is calling Harris a liar....

Hotler

(11,415 posts)
35. First off let me say good morning to all. Second....
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 11:36 AM
Feb 2012

Last edited Thu Feb 2, 2012, 08:12 PM - Edit history (1)

trying to get the Obama can do no wrong supporters in GD to swallow this message will be very tough, but we all saw that this administration is bought and paid for by Wall St. a long time ago.

AnneD

(15,774 posts)
41. And that my friend....
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 11:56 AM
Feb 2012

is why I don't stray too far from this field.

"If you can't stand the smell of cow sh!t, stay out of the pasture." my Uncle always use to say. There are other variations, but I heard this one first.

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
15. French banks would come to Britain to avoid tax: Cameron
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 09:33 PM
Feb 2012
http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/finance-public-debt.ewc

British Prime Minister David Cameron took a fresh dig at cross-channel rival France Monday, warning that French banks would flee to Britain if Paris introduces a financial transactions tax.

In comments aimed squarely at Nicolas Sarkozy after the French president reportedly criticised British industry, Cameron said the concept of the tax at a time of economic difficulty was "mad" and "extraordinary".

"I know I used the word mad, but I do think it's an extraordinary thing to do," he told a press conference after a European Union summit in Brussels, referring to the introduction of the tax.

"The European Commissioner has told us this would cost Europe half a million jobs. Now when we're all fighting for jobs and for growth, to do something that would cost so many jobs does seem to me to be extraordinary.

"And in the spirit of this healthy competition with France, if France goes for a financial transactions tax then the door will be open and we'll be able to welcome many more French banks, businesses and others to the UK.

"We'll expand our economy in that way as well as by rebalancing it, because I think this is the wrong move."
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
17. Summers: “Inside Job had essentially all its facts wrong” By Felix Salmon
Wed Feb 1, 2012, 09:48 PM
Feb 2012
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/27/summers-inside-job-had-essentially-all-its-facts-wrong/

In mid-2009, I went on a search for apologies, from the people who laid the intellectual and regulatory foundations for the financial crisis. I wondered whether and when Larry Summers, in particular, would apologize for what he did at Treasury, and I was heartened when Bill Clinton came out and said that, with hindsight, he was wrong about derivatives regulation.

Then, in 2010, Inside Job came out, and demonstrated the need for the likes of Summers to be asked direct questions about their culpability on the record, on-camera. But Summers refused to be interviewed for that film, despite having known its director, Charles Ferguson, for many years. And when he does sit down for a rare on-the-record video interview, these questions never seem to get asked.

So I was very happy to see that Krishnan Guru-Murthy at least tried to ask Summers these questions earlier this week. Krishnan starts off with standard Summers-interview questions, asking him what he thinks about UK fiscal policy, and Summers gives his standard wise-man answers. But then Krishan gets steadily tougher, asking Summers about the advice he gave the president-elect in 2008, and eventually about his deregulatory tenure at Treasury.

And Summers doesn’t even come close to apologizing, or admitting that he made any kind of mistake at all. Quite the opposite: he starts getting very touchy, telling Krishnan that he’s reducing complex questions to overly simplistic black-and-white narratives. Halfway through the interview, Krishnan asks Summers whether laissez-faire capitalism isn’t working for the middle classes. And Summers pushes back. “I’m a Democrat,” he says, adding that “I’ve long been someone who favored significant interventions to protect the environment.”

IT GETS WORSE

FACTS ARE SUCH STUBBORN THINGS---JOHN ADAMS, UPDATED
 

Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
23. Asian Shares Rally As U.S. Data Boosts Risk Appetite
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 06:35 AM
Feb 2012

CANBERA (dpa-AFX) - Asian shares rallied on Thursday as upbeat manufacturing data from China, Germany and the U.S. bolstered the outlook for global economic growth. Adding to optimism over Greece, reports said the Greek bond holders would be offered GDP-linked warrants that would boost yields to sweeten debt restructuring if Greece's gross domestic product exceeds targets. Metal prices pared overnight gains and crude futures were little changed as the euro steadied against the dollar.

Tokyo shares advanced led by automotive and bank shares. The Nikkei average finished the day 0.8 percent higher while the broader Topix index rose 0.6 percent... Meanwhile, the Tokyo Stock Exchange said it is investigating the cause of the glitch that led to the suspension of trading of 241 companies in the morning. Trading volumes totaled 2.25 billion shares on the exchange, the third-highest figure for the year, as market participants rushed to execute their shares in the afternoon session after trading resumed.

Australian shares snapped a three-day losing streak following positive leads from both Wall Street and Europe overnight. Miners led the rebound as encouraging manufacturing data from across the globe soothed worries that Europe's debt crisis could derail the economic recovery. Both the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 and the broader All Ordinaries index closed up around a percent each... Miners also benefited from reports that Swiss commodity trader Glencore International is nearing an agreement to combine with Xstrata. The speculation was confirmed subsequently by the companies. Lynas Corp soared 19.1 percent after Malaysia's Atomic Energy Licensing Board granted the rare earths miner a temporary license to operate a refinery in the country...

... South Korea's Kospi average rose 1.3 percent, gaining for a third day, after an uptick in world's factory output buoyed optimism that the world economy could withstand the fallout from Europe's debt crisis... New Zealand shares joined a global rally on signs of an improving U.S. economy. The benchmark NZX -50 index closed 0.4 percent higher...

... Elsewhere, China's Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose around 2 percent each, India's Sensex was up 0.9 percent, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite gained 1.3 percent and the Taiwan Weighted average added 1.4 percent, but Singapore's Straits Times edged down marginally. The major U.S. averages rose between 0.7 percent and 1.2 percent overnight after a string of economic data showed U.S. manufacturing grew at the fastest pace since June in January, construction spending reached a four-month high in December and employment in the private sector improved at a moderate pace last month.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-02/22604472-asian-shares-rally-as-u-s-data-boosts-risk-appetite-020.htm

 

Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
24. European shares firm, debt auctions eyed
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 06:39 AM
Feb 2012

(Reuters) - European shares hit a six-week high on Thursday adding to solid gains after global manufacturing data eased fears about the growth outlook, but with Greek debt talks unresolved, gains were limited.

"As long as there's no bad news, no default in any European countries, markets should keep on trickling upwards," said Mark Priest, senior trader at ETX Capital.

Markets will be watching the strength of demand at bond auctions by Spain and France for confirmation that the euro zone debt crisis fears are easing.

"People are now becoming increasingly used to positive results on the auctions at the moment. They've got the potential (to boost the euro), particularly if they had a very healthy bid to cover ratio," Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon said.

The euro was trading at around $1.3150 off its earlier highs of $1.3197. The dollar hovered around a three-month low against the yen of 76. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares .FTEU3, which closed at a high not seen since early August on Wednesday, was up 0.2 percent at 1,059.29 points.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/02/02/uk-markets-global-idUKTRE80T08A20120202

 

Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
26. GBP/USD drops on weak UK construction PMI
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 06:49 AM
Feb 2012

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The GBP/USD has been dropping since London opening after being capped at 1.5850 in the Asian session. UK Construction PMI is pressuring the downside further.

Analysts expecting data to drop from 53.2 to 52.7 in January, but the release says it’s down to 51.4.

/... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=afcd5d15-41d7-4769-91e8-9a0566e4bf00

... The Markit/CIPS purchasing managers' index for the construction sector in the month of January retreated to 51.4 points from 53.2 the month before. The consensus estimate was for a reading of 52.7.

While production levels fell in two out of three sub-sectors (housing and civil engineering) and growth in new business eased to its weakest in the current four-month period of increase, construction sector companies are optimistic regarding the future.

Thus, purchasing managers' hopes for production in the coming year reached their second strongest level in the survey's history, rising back up to their May 2011 highs. Part of that now greater confidence was attributed to a slower rate of increases in input costs, although they again rose markedly.

/... http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=19852081

 

Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
27. Shell profits soar 54% to £18bn
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 06:54 AM
Feb 2012

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has reported profits of 28.6 billion US dollars (£18.1 billion) for 2011, a jump of 54% on a year ago.

The improvement for the Anglo-Dutch firm came despite its below-expectations performance in the final quarter of the year, when trading was impacted by a squeeze on refining margins and lower American natural gas prices. It still made profits of 6.5 billion US dollars (£4.1 billion) in the fourth quarter, which represented a 13% rise on a year ago, after crude oil prices remained close to the 100 US dollars a barrel mark.

Shell has outshone its troubled rival BP in recent years and underlined its confidence by promising dividend growth for the first time since 2009.

It said its three-year strategic plan, which was first outlined in early 2010, had built the foundations for growth through a company-wide restructuring and by refocusing its efforts on emerging growth markets. The company, which saw production decline 3% last year, is planning investment in major projects worth 30 billion US dollars (£19 billion) in 2012 and said its outlook was boosted by more than 60 new projects and options...

... His comments come a month after Shell angered unions when it scrapped its final salary pension scheme for new recruits, meaning that not a single employer in the FTSE 100 Index offers the retirement package.

/... http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5ihDEc2VulloL8-o_4Shp5lHOWtCw?docId=N0284061328169955338A

xchrom

(108,903 posts)
30. Replacing Factories With Jails: Just 44% of Milwaukee’s Black Men in Workforce
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 09:31 AM
Feb 2012
http://inthesetimes.com/working/entry/12647/replacing_factories_with_jails_just_44_of_milwaukees_black_males_in_workfor/

MILWAUKEE—Wisconsin’s economic problems are only deepening the political crisis for Gov. Scott Walker, already the target of a massive recall campaign that gathered 1.1 signatures from Wisconsinites.

Despite Walker’s pledge to preside over the creation of 250,000 jobs by 2015, Wisconsin has lost jobs for the past six months as the rest of the country has added them, and job losses have totaled more than 35,000 since he signed his highly controversial state budget last June.

But there is a more specific economic (and social) crisis facing Milwaukee: Just 44.7 percent of African-American males are still part of the workforce, reflecting the long-term decimation and relocation of the city’s industrial based and the lingering effects of the Great Recession.

Even for African-American males in their prime working years (25 to 54), only 52 percent were in the workforce. “That took me aback,” stated Marc Levine, author of the new study illuminating the appalling level of joblessness in the city’s black community.
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
47. And then, With Forced Labor--Voila! Slavery Returns!
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 01:18 PM
Feb 2012

Our modern work houses. Scrooge would be proud.

Wisconsin Senate candidate saves on prison labor OCTOBER, 2010

http://www.correctionsone.com/public-perceptions/articles/2773832-Wisconsin-Senate-cadidate-saves-on-prison-labor/

Republican Senate candidate Ron Johnson employs up to nine prison inmates at his plastics factories whose health care costs are paid by the state...

Wisconsin Statutes 303.03 - Prison labor on farms and buildings


http://www.lawserver.com/law/state/wisconsin/wi-laws/wisconsin_laws_303-03

303.03 Prison labor on farms and buildings. The wardens and the superintendents of the state prisons may employ inmates outside the institution's yard in cultivating the farms or in doing any necessary work in the prosecution of the regular business of the institution or of other state institutions or of any other activity of the state or of any political subdivision thereof or in the construction of buildings by the state; and any such inmate who escapes shall be deemed as having escaped from the institution proper. SEE ALSO:

U.S. Code Provisions: Corrections

U.S. Code Title 18 > Part I > Chapter 85 - Prison-Made Goods
U.S. Code Title 42 > Chapter 46 > Subchapter XX-B - Grant Program To Evaluate And Improve Educational Methods At Prisons, Jails, And Juvenile Facilities

Prison Factories: Slave Labor for the New World Order?


http://rinf.com/news/oct05/prison.html

...the Oakhill Correctional Institute in Dane County, Wisconsin serves as a model. Seventeen inmates crowded in a makeshift basement factory in that facility crank out over a million dollars' worth of office chairs per year, in exchange for wages ranging from twenty cents to $1.50 per hour.

The operation is run by Badger State Industries, the Wisconsin prison industries program, which employs 600 inmates and which raked in a $1.2 million profit in 1995. In the past, to protect manufacturers from unfair competition, Wisconsin allowed sale of prison-made goods only to state and local government agencies. But Governor Tommy Thompson's new state budget allows commercial entities to use prison facilities and labor for manufacturing purposes. The money will be used to pay for the costs of incarcerating the prisoners -- including the ones who work in the factories.

Wisconsin is following the lead of other states, such as California, Tennessee, Kansas, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, Nevada and Iowa, which have incorporated prisoners into the labor force, placing artificial downward pressure on wages. Thousands of state and federal prisoners are currently generating more than $1 billion per year in sales for private businesses, often competing directly with the private sector labor force. The Correctional Industries Association predicts that by the year 2000, 30 percent of America's inmate population will labor to create nearly $9 billion in sales for private business interests.

Oregon has even started advertising its prison labor force and factories, claiming that businesses who utilize incarcerated workers would otherwise go overseas for cheap labor (thanks, GATT and NAFTA!). In 1995, an overwhelming majority of Oregon voters passed a constitutional amendment that will put 100 percent of its state inmates to work.

And they'll be making a lot more than license plates and road signs. One product of Oregon's inmate factories are uniforms for McDonald's. Tennessee inmates stitch together jeans for Kmart and JC Penney, as well as $80 wooden rocking ponies for Eddie Bauer. Mattresses and furniture are perennial favorites in prison factories, and Ohio inmates even produced car parts for Honda, until the United Auto Workers intervened. Prisoners have been employed doing data entry, assembling computer circuit boards and even taking credit card ticket orders for TWA.

But private industry isn't the only sector eager to exploit cheap prison labor. On June 14, 1995, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly rejected an amendment to the 1996 Defense Authorization bill which would have permitted the Defense Department to use nonviolent offender inmates provided by state or local corrections facilities to do construction and maintenance services at military installations...

Scott Walker hires free prison labor to replace busted union workers JULY. 2011

http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/9602765-scott-walker-hires-free-prison-labor-to-replace-busted-union-workers

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has done the unimaginable. After stripping state unions of their collective bargaining rights, he is now using free prison labor to take over jobs formerly done by union members.

"The law went into effect last week, and Racine County is already using inmates to do landscaping, painting, and another basic maintenance around the county that was previously done by county workers. The union had successfully sued to stop the country from using prison labor for these jobs last year, but with Walker's new law, they have no recourse," according to Think Progress.

Whether Walker worked his way around the law in busting unions in Wisconsin is debatable. However, using prison labor to do former union jobs is more than a slap in the face of democracy. It represents a terrifying demonstration of abuse of power with complete disregard for ethics and morality.

Fuddnik

(8,846 posts)
51. And it's bi-partisan to boot.
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 01:38 PM
Feb 2012

A couple of years ago, Ohio Democratic Governor Ted Strickland was planning to get rid of union janitors and maintenance workers on statehouse grounds, and replacing them with inmate labor. And people on this board were praising the idea, and defending him.

And people wonder how they can lose an election to a proven asshole like John Kasich. Or Mitt Romney.

xchrom

(108,903 posts)
32. American Airlines to cut 13,000 jobs
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 10:50 AM
Feb 2012
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2012/02/2012224340464860.html

The parent company of American Airlines says it needs to eliminate about 13,000 jobs, as one of the largest US airlines remakes itself under bankruptcy protection.

Thomas W Horton, chief executive of AMR Corp, said on Wednesday that the company hoped to return to profitability by cutting spending by more than $2bn per year and raising revenue by $1bn per year.

The company aims to cut labour costs by 20 per cent, along with 15 per cent of its workforce, and will soon begin negotiations with its three major unions.

AMR lost $884m in the first nine months of 2011, and on Tuesday it disclosed a $904m loss for December alone. It has lost more than $11bn since 2001.

Roland99

(53,342 posts)
34. AMR playing "jingle mail" with their debt (like some homeowners)
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 11:06 AM
Feb 2012
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/12/19/111219ta_talk_surowiecki

We normally say that a company “went bankrupt,” implying that it had no choice. But when, recently, American Airlines filed for bankruptcy, it did so deliberately. The airline had four billion dollars in the bank and could have kept paying its bills. But it has been losing money for a while, and its board decided that it was foolish to keep throwing good money after bad. Declaring bankruptcy will trim American’s debt load and allow it to break its union contracts, so that it can slim down and cut costs.

American wasn’t stigmatized for the move. Instead, analysts hailed it as “very smart.” It is now generally accepted that when it’s economically irrational for a company to keep paying its debts it will try to renegotiate them or, failing that, default. For creditors, that’s just the price of business. But when it comes to another set of borrowers the norms are very different. The bursting of the housing bubble has left millions of homeowners across the country owing more than their homes are worth. In some areas, well over half of mortgages are underwater, many so deeply that people owe forty or fifty per cent more than the value of their homes. In other words, a good percentage of Americans are in much the same position as American Airlines: they can still pay their debts, but doing so is like setting a pile of money on fire every month.

These people have no hope of ever making a return on their investment in their homes. So for many of them the rational solution would be a “strategic default”—walking away from the mortgage and letting the bank take the house. Yet the vast majority of underwater borrowers keep faithfully paying their mortgages; studies suggest that perhaps only a quarter of all foreclosures are strategic. Given how much housing prices have fallen, the question is why more people aren’t just walking away.

Part of the answer is practical. Defaulting (even in so-called non-recourse states) is still a lot of trouble, and to most people it’s scary. In addition, homeowners are slow to recognize how much the value of their homes has dropped, and have inflated expectations of how much it will rise in the future. The biggest hurdle, though, is social: while companies get called “very smart” for restructuring their contracts, there’s a real stigma attached to defaulting on your mortgage. According to one study, eighty-one per cent of Americans think it’s immoral not to pay your mortgage when you can, and the idea of default is shaped by what Brent White, a law professor at the University of Arizona, calls a discourse of “shame, guilt, and fear.” When the housing bubble burst, the banking industry was terrified by the possibility that homeowners might walk away en masse, since that would have stuck lenders with large losses and a huge number of marked-down homes. So strategic default was portrayed as the act of dishonorable deadbeats. David Walker, of the Peterson Foundation, waxed nostalgic about debtors’ prisons, and John Courson, the head of the Mortgage Bankers Association, argued that defaulters were sending the wrong message “to their family and their kids and their friends.”


AnneD

(15,774 posts)
55. After seeing the crooks ....
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 06:42 PM
Feb 2012

on WS get off without penalty and get bonuses to boot- this is one American that does not judge those that have to walk away from a mortgage too harshly and would do it myself if it was the only way out. Not that I like to or that it would be the first option, but I run my household like a business and well, sometimes business' go bankrupt.

This is the same social pressure that is used to keep women in line by guilting them. Church leaders that for years encourage battered women to go back to their abusive spouses, career consulars that would direct women into female occupation instead of letting them use their natural gifts like mechanical engineering or other masculine areas, insisting that girls be virgins before marriage. The list goes on.

I am tired of a double standard PERIOD. A crack head steal over a certain amount in the thousands and he get prison time measured in years. Mozillo, Dimon, Godwin steal millions and they don't even get a slap on the wrist.

AnneD

(15,774 posts)
42. They are ginning up...
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 12:17 PM
Feb 2012

for an embargo/war with Iran. They see that as a way to solve all our economic problems etc. Mark my words. Haven't we been having surpluses and they have actually been exportiing oil from the US. I seem to remember reading that little nugget somewhere. So much for the unseen hand of the market....

Hotler

(11,415 posts)
40. Miss Demeter, your prediction of the shit hitting the fan....
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 11:55 AM
Feb 2012

may be coming true soon. Did you folks see this over in "Video & Multimedia"? "5 Major US banks face massive default on credit default swaps within weeks.". Posted by Stockholmer. The thread has a good break down of who the PTB are also. The end is near! The end is near!

DemReadingDU

(16,000 posts)
45. The end has been near for awhile.
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 01:13 PM
Feb 2012

I have no doubt those banks can kick the can lots longer than we think possible.



 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
49. I live in anticipation
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 01:27 PM
Feb 2012

This week all kinds of funny little things that have been in suspension have been hitting the floor finally.

Maybe because Mars is retrograde?

Stockholmer posts some neat stuff.

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
52. This explains why Goldman is Cannibalizing itself
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 01:39 PM
Feb 2012

They are getting ready for Gotterdamerung, looting the firm and stuffing their pockets, screwing the shareholders, who just got suckered in recently....GS went public May 3, 1999. Even at the time I thought it was a con game. Now, I know for sure.

AnneD

(15,774 posts)
56. Just remember folks...
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 06:49 PM
Feb 2012

when they declare a bank holiday...you are either in and have your money devalued; or you are out and still have some purchasing power. Last time we had a National Bank holiday-FDR was president. Obama is no FDR. I have said that I feel in my gut that this may be the year that we will experience it in our lifetime. Nuff said.

And yes, Stockholmer comes up with good stuff....Manmar too.

 

happyslug

(14,779 posts)
57. Actually OBama is much like FDR, FDR had one advantage, a HUGE Democratic majority in Congress
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 09:58 PM
Feb 2012

For almost 40 years prior to 1932, the Democratic Party had been the party where anyone who supported Labor and economic progression migrated to. La Follette and his allies had kept the GOP somewhat progressive from 1890s to the 1920s, but with his death, that progressive movement died in the GOP. Thus the Democratic Party became the progressive party in the US, through it had problems with that concept.

More on Robert La Follette:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_M._La_Follette,_Sr.

First among those problems were the southern right wing democrats, often called "Southern Whigs" for that was many of them had been or their fathers and grandfathers had been before the Civil War, with the Civil War and the fact the Democratic Party had more support among the working class in the South, they all joined the Democratic Party, but remain Whigs in all but name (i.e. would have joined the GOP, except the GOP was so hated in the South, joining the GOP till the 1950s was the kiss of death, thus they stayed in the Democratic Party till the 1950s with some remaining as late as the 1980s).

Second of these problems were Northern Democrats with similar attitude as the Southern Whigs, but for various reasons (mostly local politics) were Democrats. Again conservative, but not as bad as the Southern Whigs nor the GOP.

With the 1932 election FDR had a overwhelming majority in both the house and Senate. 313 Democrats, 5 Farmer-Labor, and 117 GOP members of the House. The Democrat had 59 out of 96 Senators PLUS one Farmer-Labor Senator (GOP had only 36 seats out of 96 seats)

In 1934 the Democrats elected 322, the Progressive party 7 and the Farmer-Labor 2, and the GOP only 103 members of the House. The Democratic Party had 69 out of 96 Senators PLUS one Farmer-Labor Senator and one Progressive Senators (GOP reduced to 25 seats).

In 1936 the Democratic Party elected 334 members, 8 Progressives and 5 Farmer-Labor party members to only 88 GOP congressmen. The Democrats had 69 Senator out of 96 AND one Progressive and Two Farmer Labor Senator and one Independent (GOP was reduced to 16 out of 96, this is the lowest number of GOP Senators since the election of 1856).

More on the parties in the House:
http://artandhistory.house.gov/house_history/partyDiv.aspx

More on the Parties in the Senate:
http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm

My point is FDR always had to deal with a Overwhelming Democratic Congress, in both the House and Senate. It was so bad that when FDR vetoed the second passage of the Bonus Army request for an early payment of their Bonus, the House and Senate OVERRODE HIS VETO. FDR veto other very progressive acts the House and Senate passed for he opposed them. How many things have Obama passed? Two and one of them was to undo an opps by Congress (i.e. Congress passed a law it did not really want to pass, so Obama vetoed it to solve the problem of the laws passing both the House and Senate).

FDR, while having served three terms and four months of his fourth term (And his first term did not start til March 4th 1933, the start of the Presidential term was changed to January 20th, only in the late 1930s, thus technically he served three terms and less then two months, if we use March 4th to March 4th as the length of a term of office) vetoed 635 bills of Congress. Almost 53 vetos a year. Most were to liberal/Progressive for FDR's taste but even the Southern Whigs and Northern Conservative Democrats supported those progressive acts till the 1938 Court Packing bill (The Supreme Court had ruled to much of the New Deal unconstitutional, so FDR proposed adding more justices to the Court so a Majority of the Court would support the New Deal, the bill was opposed by the GOP, Conservative Northern Democrats and Southern Whigs, but even with that opposition it almost passed with just the votes of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party in both the House and Senate).

My point is simple, Obama is much like FDR, but FDR had the benefit of having a very progressive, pro-labor, pro-economic reform democratic controlled House and Senate. If we had the same Senate and House that FDR had from 1933-to his death, we would have had single payer under Obama (Truman would try to get Single payer passed in the late 1940s, but he had to deal with a GOP controlled House from 1946-1948 and a much narrower majority of Democrats in the Senate during his whole term in office AND just a narrow majority in the House from 1949-1953 (That much narrower majority permitted the Southern Whigs to ally with the GOP to prevent any real reforms from being passed, such as Single Payer Health Insurance but this is 1946-1953 period NOT FDR's 1933-1945 period).

Just pointing out the problem is NOT Obama, we can live with Obama for he is much like FDR and JFK a good speaker and a good enough politician to lead something he might oppose but will occur anyway (Thus having a say as to HOW that thing will be implemented and passed).

The problem is the lack of a progressive House and Senate. That is what we need and what Obama does not have. The Democrats had huge majority in the House and Senate from 1933 to 1945, the main advantage of this majority was progressive controlled what bills reached the floor of the Senate and House and thus what bills was voted on AND they had enough extra votes to withstand substantial defections (and do to the ability of the House and Senate Leadership to "punish" such defectors by making sure bills that affected their home districts never saw the light of day. such defectors rarely defected when such defections would have killed progressive legislation). The House and Senate thus could and did pass some of the most radical economic laws this country had ever seen, the regulations of the banks, Labor law Reform (making it easier to form a Union), protection for the elderly (Social Security) etc, but all of these things came from the HOUSE AND SENATE not the White House. FDR would support some of these laws, veto others, but all he was doing was trying to direct this push for reforms NOT to lead the push. The push was from the House and Senate and that is where any comparison between Obama and FDR fails. Obama has NOT had to direct something that was going to pass, but that he opposed (for example Single Payer). Single payer was killed in the Senate and Obama did NOTHING to save it, but given the same circumstances FDR would NOT have save it. On the other hand had the House and Senate passed single payer, Obama, like FDR would have signed it for then he could claim credit and direct it.

What we need is a more progressive House and Senate so we can do what was done in 1933-1945, not another FDR, for that is what we have. What we are lacking is a progressive Senate and House.

AnneD

(15,774 posts)
58. Obama did have a Dem Congress
Fri Feb 3, 2012, 11:49 AM
Feb 2012

To refresh your memory.....

The One Hundred Tenth United States Congress was the meeting of the legislative branch of the United States federal government, between January 3, 2007, and January 3, 2009, during the last two years of the second term of President George W. Bush. It was composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The apportionment of seats in the House was based on the 2000 U.S. census.

The Democratic Party controlled a majority in both chambers for the first time since the end of the 103rd Congress in 1995. Although the Democrats held fewer than 50 Senate seats, they had an operational majority because the two independent senators caucused with the Democrats for organizational purposes. No Democratic-held seats had fallen to the Republican Party in the 2006 elections.[2] Democrat Nancy Pelosi became the first woman Speaker of the House.[3] The House also received the first Muslims (Keith Ellison)[4][5] and Buddhists (Hank Johnson and Mazie Hirono)[6] in Congress.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/110th_United_States_Congress

If you are stepping up to the bell, you may as well ring it. I have seen the GOP do a lot more damage with far less of a majority (Bush's last 2 years). I think this is why the Dem's lost so much ground in the mid terms. People gave the Dems a majority to work with and they sat on their collective asses. What is the point of having a majority if you don't take it out for a spin. Obama was too busy insulting his base, listening to his corp. based advisors, and kissing GOP butt.

 

happyslug

(14,779 posts)
59. Obama's Democratic Congress was no where near as left wing as the Congresses of the 1930s
Fri Feb 3, 2012, 07:28 PM
Feb 2012

Look at the number of Democratic Senators and third Party Senators during the 1930s, most Democratic Senators feared losing to someone to their LEFT not to their right. The GOP went from a Majority of Senators in 1930 to just 16 out of 96 by 1936. By 1936 the GOP could NOT even filibuster unless some Democrats joined them. That is how far to the LEFT the Congress went and that was throughout the 1930s, something that had NOT happened today, we are more into the see-saw between the two parities that was the norm in the 1910s and 1920s as oppose to the move to the left of the 1930s.

Obama has NEVER had a Congress as far left as the Congress of the 1930s. That was the point I was making. That is the main difference between FDR and Obama, on the legislative front FDR had to worry about the LEFT more then the Right (The Right of the 1930s is much like the Right of today but after the attempted coup reveled by General Butler, the Right was blackmailed by FDR to behave themselves).

hamerfan

(1,404 posts)
60. Sorry, just skimming the posts,
Fri Feb 3, 2012, 07:59 PM
Feb 2012

but are you serious? Really?
Blaming Obama's failings on the Congress?
Except for the title Democrat behind each name, I see nothing in common between them.
FDR had courage, conviction, vision and drive. Things sorely missing in this administration.
IMHO, Obama couldn't begin to compare to FDR!
Just my $0.02
hamerfan

 

happyslug

(14,779 posts)
61. My point was FDR was to the RIGHT of Congress
Fri Feb 3, 2012, 10:02 PM
Feb 2012

The Democrats had so many Senators that the GOP could NOT filibusterer. it was so far to the left FDR had to veto on an average of at over 50 bills every year. The reason is how far to the left Congress was compared to FDR. OBama did NOT have a Congress that far to the left.

xchrom

(108,903 posts)
50. Workers pay as prophets of austerity gain sway
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 01:33 PM
Feb 2012
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/0131/1224311002338.html

Many economists have decided to forget for political reasons that austerity in the face of depression is a bad idea

LAST WEEK the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a British think tank, released a startling chart comparing the current slump with past recessions and recoveries. It turns out that by one important measure – changes in real GDP since the recession began – Britain is doing worse this time than it did during the Great Depression. Four years into the Depression, British GDP had regained its previous peak; four years after the Great Recession began, Britain is nowhere close to regaining its lost ground.

Nor is Britain unique. Italy is also doing worse than it did in the 1930s – and with Spain clearly headed for a double-dip recession that makes three of Europe’s big five economies members of the worse-than club.

Yes, there are some caveats and complications. But this nonetheless represents a stunning failure of policy. And it’s a failure of the austerity doctrine that has dominated elite policy discussion both in Europe and in the US for the past two years.

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
53. The inbox is overflowing
Thu Feb 2, 2012, 01:53 PM
Feb 2012

I'd love to stay and post, but so is the laundry, mending, etc. See you all later!

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