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STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Thursday, 15 November 2012
[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, 15 November 2012[font color=black][/font]
SMW for 14 November 2012
AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 14 November 2012
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Dow Jones 12,570.95 -185.23 (-1.45%)
S&P 500 1,355.49 -19.04 (-1.39%)
Nasdaq 2,846.81 -37.08 (-1.29%)
[font color=green]10 Year 1.59% -0.03 (-1.85%)
30 Year 2.72% -0.02 (-0.73%) [font color=black]
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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
[/center][font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]
44 replies
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-14/economy-shows-green-shoots-from-china-to-u-s-with-data-surprise.html
The U.S. and China, the world’s traditional twin sources of growth, are planting seeds to lift the world economy from its midyear slowdown.
The U.S. and China, the world’s traditional twin sources of growth, are planting seeds to lift the world economy from its midyear slowdown.
Among the green shoots indicating faster expansion: stronger housing demand and hiring in the U.S. and accelerating factory output and retail sales in China. Responsible for a third of the world economy, the two countries are now providing ballast internationally as Europe and Japan stagnate.
“China and the U.S. are both improving, which is extremely good news,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in a telephone interview. “If we could pretend Europe and Japan didn’t exist, the world would be fine.”
The rebound’s endurance may depend on whether authorities can clear a fog of doubt surrounding policy. U.S. lawmakers are debating how to curb $607 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts by year-end, while a once-in-a-decade leadership shift in China may raise questions about its direction. Elsewhere, Europe’s crisis-fighting remains erratic and Japan faces its own fiscal and political dilemmas.
The U.S. and China, the world’s traditional twin sources of growth, are planting seeds to lift the world economy from its midyear slowdown.
The U.S. and China, the world’s traditional twin sources of growth, are planting seeds to lift the world economy from its midyear slowdown.
Among the green shoots indicating faster expansion: stronger housing demand and hiring in the U.S. and accelerating factory output and retail sales in China. Responsible for a third of the world economy, the two countries are now providing ballast internationally as Europe and Japan stagnate.
“China and the U.S. are both improving, which is extremely good news,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in a telephone interview. “If we could pretend Europe and Japan didn’t exist, the world would be fine.”
The rebound’s endurance may depend on whether authorities can clear a fog of doubt surrounding policy. U.S. lawmakers are debating how to curb $607 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts by year-end, while a once-in-a-decade leadership shift in China may raise questions about its direction. Elsewhere, Europe’s crisis-fighting remains erratic and Japan faces its own fiscal and political dilemmas.
. .. .weeds growing in the cracks in the infrastructure?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-15/fed-moves-toward-tying-interest-rate-decisions-to-economic-data.html
The Federal Reserve is embarking on the next step in Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s journey toward greater transparency -- tying its outlook for borrowing costs to measures of employment and inflation.
The Federal Reserve is embarking on the next step in Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s journey toward greater transparency -- tying its outlook for borrowing costs to measures of employment and inflation.
Policy makers “generally favored the use of economic variables” to provide guidance on the when they are likely to approve their first interest-rate increase since 2008, according to minutes of their Oct. 23-24 meeting released yesterday. Such measures might replace or supplement a calendar date, currently set at mid-2015.
A number of officials also said the Fed may need to expand its monthly purchases of bonds next year after the expiration of a program to extend the maturities of assets on its balance sheet, known as Operation Twist. The discussion indicates that Fed officials judge the economy still needs record stimulus to reduce an unemployment rate stuck near 8 percent.
“I just really don’t see how you’re going to get something that constitutes a substantial improvement in labor market conditions in the next month or so,” said Michael Hanson, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York and a former Fed economist.
The Federal Reserve is embarking on the next step in Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s journey toward greater transparency -- tying its outlook for borrowing costs to measures of employment and inflation.
The Federal Reserve is embarking on the next step in Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s journey toward greater transparency -- tying its outlook for borrowing costs to measures of employment and inflation.
Policy makers “generally favored the use of economic variables” to provide guidance on the when they are likely to approve their first interest-rate increase since 2008, according to minutes of their Oct. 23-24 meeting released yesterday. Such measures might replace or supplement a calendar date, currently set at mid-2015.
A number of officials also said the Fed may need to expand its monthly purchases of bonds next year after the expiration of a program to extend the maturities of assets on its balance sheet, known as Operation Twist. The discussion indicates that Fed officials judge the economy still needs record stimulus to reduce an unemployment rate stuck near 8 percent.
“I just really don’t see how you’re going to get something that constitutes a substantial improvement in labor market conditions in the next month or so,” said Michael Hanson, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York and a former Fed economist.
http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-business-conditions-index-2012-11
Morgan Stanley just published its November read on its proprietary Business Conditions Index, and it dropped 6 points to 35%. This follows last month's stunning 14 point plunge.
"Rising fiscal policy uncertainty is having an increasingly negative impact on business activity as the fiscal cliff looms, write the economists led by Vincent Reinhart. "After the status quo election results, the ideological divide that blew up the “Grand Bargain” in 2011 still exists. Risks are significant that a fiscal cliff deal won’t be reached by January 1, potentially a major blow to an economy that appears to be moving into year end with little momentum."
This only reinforces the idea the U.S. consumers and the U.S. businesses are experiencing the economy very differently. Specifically, the consumer has been feeling more confident thanks to emerging bullish trends like the rebound in home prices. Meanwhile, businesses are becoming increasingly cautious as the fiscal cliff looms.
Here's a long term look at the measure:
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-business-conditions-index-2012-11#ixzz2CIDS9DKm
Morgan Stanley just published its November read on its proprietary Business Conditions Index, and it dropped 6 points to 35%. This follows last month's stunning 14 point plunge.
"Rising fiscal policy uncertainty is having an increasingly negative impact on business activity as the fiscal cliff looms, write the economists led by Vincent Reinhart. "After the status quo election results, the ideological divide that blew up the “Grand Bargain” in 2011 still exists. Risks are significant that a fiscal cliff deal won’t be reached by January 1, potentially a major blow to an economy that appears to be moving into year end with little momentum."
This only reinforces the idea the U.S. consumers and the U.S. businesses are experiencing the economy very differently. Specifically, the consumer has been feeling more confident thanks to emerging bullish trends like the rebound in home prices. Meanwhile, businesses are becoming increasingly cautious as the fiscal cliff looms.
Here's a long term look at the measure:
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-business-conditions-index-2012-11#ixzz2CIDS9DKm
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/11/neverending-pain-foreclosures-will-hurt-housing-for-at-least-5-more-years/265216/
When will our long, national housing nightmare be over? Now, maybe. Prices are edging up. So is building. But it's not exactly 2005 all over again. The long shadow of the housing bust is still making another boom -- or even a stronger recovery -- much more difficult.
It's the foreclosures, stupid. They push down prices and ruin people's credit. The latter is why so many underwater borrowers are so reluctant to walk away from their bad investments -- if you lose your home, you aren't likely to buy another one anytime soon. Just look at how few households end up getting another mortgage in the decade after a default, from this San Francisco Fed paper. That's a lot less people back in the market to buy a house.
But there have been a lot less people back in the market to buy a house after defaulting in 2008 than after defaulting in 2003. What a difference five years makes. Back in 2003, the housing bubble was in high gear. Rising prices meant people wanted to take out mortgages and lenders wanted to give them out. By 2008, the housing bust was in high gear. Falling prices meant people wanted to wait before taking out a mortgage and lenders, the few that still existed, only wanted to give them out to the very best credits. As depressing as this 2008 data looks, the 2003 data is more depressing still -- even amid a historic housing bubble, only 25 percent of households that went through foreclosure had bought another house within five years.
When will our long, national housing nightmare be over? Now, maybe. Prices are edging up. So is building. But it's not exactly 2005 all over again. The long shadow of the housing bust is still making another boom -- or even a stronger recovery -- much more difficult.
It's the foreclosures, stupid. They push down prices and ruin people's credit. The latter is why so many underwater borrowers are so reluctant to walk away from their bad investments -- if you lose your home, you aren't likely to buy another one anytime soon. Just look at how few households end up getting another mortgage in the decade after a default, from this San Francisco Fed paper. That's a lot less people back in the market to buy a house.
But there have been a lot less people back in the market to buy a house after defaulting in 2008 than after defaulting in 2003. What a difference five years makes. Back in 2003, the housing bubble was in high gear. Rising prices meant people wanted to take out mortgages and lenders wanted to give them out. By 2008, the housing bust was in high gear. Falling prices meant people wanted to wait before taking out a mortgage and lenders, the few that still existed, only wanted to give them out to the very best credits. As depressing as this 2008 data looks, the 2003 data is more depressing still -- even amid a historic housing bubble, only 25 percent of households that went through foreclosure had bought another house within five years.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/11/the-us-wont-be-energy-independent-even-if-we-pump-more-oil-than-saudi-arabia/265136/
This just in: The United States is about to be the new Saudi Arabia. Not the Saudi Arabia of wind, or natural gas, or some other nerd energy source nobody fights wars over, but of old-fashioned oil!
That's an easy conclusion to draw from reading the International Energy Agency's new report, which projects that the U.S. will replace Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil producer by around 2020, and lends a massive dose of establishment cred to the idea that North America is en route to energy independence within the next decade or so. Assuming that the prediction is correct, this is the sort of news that can, and will, be easily misconstrued -- probably in Congress by people responsible for setting our national energy policy. Because here's the thing: While we may soon produce as much crude as Saudi Arabia, we will not actually have the same power over world markets as Saudi Arabia, and thus oil will continue to be a political and financial thorn in our side.
For simplicity's sake, here a few key points to remember if you hear the Saudi Arabia line.
(1) We'll NEVER Be Like Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is special for a three reasons. First, it has the worlds second largest proven oil reserves, behind Venezuela. Second, it pumps more crude each day than any other nation. Third -- and this is the important fact about Saudi Arabia -- what gives it enormous sway over the international oil market is that it could pump more if it chose.
This just in: The United States is about to be the new Saudi Arabia. Not the Saudi Arabia of wind, or natural gas, or some other nerd energy source nobody fights wars over, but of old-fashioned oil!
That's an easy conclusion to draw from reading the International Energy Agency's new report, which projects that the U.S. will replace Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil producer by around 2020, and lends a massive dose of establishment cred to the idea that North America is en route to energy independence within the next decade or so. Assuming that the prediction is correct, this is the sort of news that can, and will, be easily misconstrued -- probably in Congress by people responsible for setting our national energy policy. Because here's the thing: While we may soon produce as much crude as Saudi Arabia, we will not actually have the same power over world markets as Saudi Arabia, and thus oil will continue to be a political and financial thorn in our side.
For simplicity's sake, here a few key points to remember if you hear the Saudi Arabia line.
(1) We'll NEVER Be Like Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is special for a three reasons. First, it has the worlds second largest proven oil reserves, behind Venezuela. Second, it pumps more crude each day than any other nation. Third -- and this is the important fact about Saudi Arabia -- what gives it enormous sway over the international oil market is that it could pump more if it chose.
