Fires in Venezuela's El Guri Complex Could Have Sparked Blackout

[MRubio]

NASA satellite images show fires near powerful transmission lines on first day of blackout

Fires within Venezuela’s heavily-fortified El Guri hydroelectric complex could have triggered the massive blackout that plunged the nation into darkness last week, according to an analysis of thermal conditions along hundreds of miles of transmission lines by Venezuelan industry experts and U.S.-based researchers.

The analysis uses images from NASA's Suomi satellite and was made available to the Wall Street Journal Thursday night.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fires-in-venezuelas-el-guri-complex-could-have-sparked-blackout-11552667168

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Iguanas. I'm still going with iguanas.

[MRubio]

1. More details in this Miami Herald piece:

Now two Venezuelans with expertise in engineering and geospatial technologies say they've analyzed NASA satellite imagery indicating there were three fires within close proximity to transmission lines that could have crippled the country's electric grid.

The sleuths took data from a weather satellite that can detect thermal activity and superimposed it on Google Earth images to put together what may be the most concrete analysis yet of what transpired on March 7.

"There is still a possibility that something else happened," said Jose Aguilar, an expert on Venezuela's electrical grid who coordinated the study. "But this is very incriminating."

Within hours of the attack, the government of embattled President Nicolas Maduro began accusing the U.S. of a cyberattack. Maduro has stuck to that narrative, saying hackers in the U.S. first shut down the Guri Dam and then delivered several "electromagnetic" blows.

Engineers have questioned that assertion, contending that the Guri Dam's operating system is on a closed network with no internet connection. Several consulted by The Associated Press speculated that a more likely cause was a fire along one of the electrical grid's powerful 765-kilovolt lines that connect the dam to much of Venezuela.

Working with an expert at Texas Tech University's Geospatial Technologies Laboratory, Aguilar said satellite data indicates that on the day of the blackout there were three fires in close proximity to the 765-kilovolt lines transmitting power generated from the Guri Dam, which provides about 80 percent of Venezuela's electricity.

He said that a fire on even one of the three lines near the blazes could have been catastrophic.

"A fire of that nature has enough power to cripple the whole system," he said.

Their analysis also shows that fires broke out one day before the blackout near several lesser-voltage lines that could have also weakened the system.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/article228007279.html

[Ghost Dog]

2. ¡Salamanders!

So they examined the heat signatures of thousands of kilometers of cables, then noticed that, ¡inside the complex!, correction, ¡close to power lines!, um, which is it? - Guri got hot. Sure.

Wouldn't you look there first?

[MRubio]

3. I think the first article, the WSJ piece, is poorly worded to say the least.

I don't think there was a fire within the complex proper, but instead near transmission lines somewhere between Guri and Caracas......which admittedly covers A LOT of territory.

The transmission lines traverse through some of Venezuela's most remote and difficult to access regions on their way toward Caracas, making it difficult to obtain any first-hand information that could back up or pinpoint the location of a fire.

Working with an expert at Texas Tech University's Geospatial Technologies Laboratory, Aguilar said satellite data indicates that on the day of the blackout there were three fires in close proximity to the 765-kilovolt lines transmitting power generated from the Guri Dam, which provides about 80 percent of Venezuela's electricity.

I saw somewhere on the interwebs today a mention of the approximate region of the fires, but did not recognize the name or look at a map to see if I could find it. Now that my interest is piqued, I'll do just that and hopefully can give a better idea of where the problem may have started.

[Ghost Dog]

4. Somewhere around the center of this area?

Nb. It's a drag there's no google streetview in Venezuela. Brazil has it, I see. The Russian Federation too! But not China...

[MRubio]

5. That's an area just northwest of Guri, southern Monagas and Anzoaetgui states........

.....what I think I saw was a location much closer to Caracas, perhaps some where in eastern Guarico state. I looked at everything I could remember reading over the last couple of days and still couldn't find it. I was pretty sure I'd seen it in a Caracas Chronicles article but it wasn't there. Frustrating getting old and senile.

[Ghost Dog]

6. Yes, now I see more...

I see now the main lines out of Guri run more to the South... South of the Orinoco river, it seems, to the Malena B substation and from there to the San Geronimo B substation at Valle de la Pascua...



... So, they say fires have been observed somewhere close to those orange 765KV lines. But, where three run together? The thicker orange lines?

From the Roberto Linares article:

From people inside the electric industry, we know that an overheat alarm was triggered between the San Geronimo B and Malena substations, which are like nodes. San Geronimo B is just South of Valle de La Pascua (Guarico state, central plains); Malena is a bit in the middle of nowhere, between Bolivar’s Trocal 19 and the Orinoco River...

One can see where the three lines cross the Orinoco close to Mapire here:



(As an aside, while looking, out of curiosity (I'm a geographer and environmental scientist, amongst other things), at an area of Eastern Siberia via google maps one day, my eye was drawn to the straight lines criss-crossing the boreal forest. There, I was able to use streetview at a point where a line crossed a road, and could see that, of course, they were power lines... or, I should say, I could see where the forest is maintained cut down under and to the sides of such lines. Well, I thought, that provides plenty of constant employment, at least in summer, for relatively unskilled workers there!).

Nb. NASA's Suomi mission site doesn't appear to make public any relevant images for our investigative purposes:

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/NPP/main/index.html

[MRubio]

7. Excellent detective work Ghost Dog!

Yes, it was the Melana B substation and another I saw mentioned in an article, perhaps in that same Linares article you quoted (haven't read your link yet). It's frustrating for me to read something like that and then not be able to find the article again. I surf all over the place, one interesting link taking me to the next, and then often forget how I got there. I should do better because I love maps. LOL. Even took a cartography class in college just for shits and grins. Topographic maps are my favorites.

Using Google Earth is so much fun. I recall when Osama bin Laden was taken out, there were initially published satellite photos of the compound, but not many specifics other than the nearest city. With Google Earth and the compound's unique features, I quickly found it.

[MRubio]

8. So it was a CaracasChronicles article!!!!

I just didn't scroll down far enough on their home page to see the one you linked, and the one that I had obvioulsy read. The article is authored by Rodrigo Linares. Getting back on line after 4 days without power, I had a lot of reading to catchup on.

Of course, from where your satellite image shows the three lines crossing the Orinoco, there's still a whole lot of territory headed north/northwest towards Valle de la Pasqua as that crossing is still within the state of Anzoategui.

What a shame that NASA's Suomi site doesn't provide those images, by date, to the public.

[MRubio]

9. Venezuela's Power Grid Afflicted by Brain Drain, Corruption

This month’s blackout was exacerbated by a lack of expertise; it would cost tens of billions of dollars to improve the system

President Nicolás Maduro’s government convened an urgent meeting of 12 technicians in February 2016 at the giant El Guri hydroelectric complex after rolling blackouts had hit Venezuela.

Despite the presence of three agents from the feared secret police, a few technicians summoned the courage to tell the energy minister that they would need to reduce power generation to avoid long-term damage.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-power-grid-afflicted-by-brain-drain-corruption-11552852210

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And we're entering what are usually the hottest months of the year for us, April through mid May. That being said, this summer is far milder than some I've seen in the recent past, so there's that.

Semana Santa (the week ending on Easter Sunday) is almost always a bitch with high temps. And I've never seen anyone waste electricity like Venezuelans. Air conditioners full blast with no windows to contain the cool air or keep the heat out, lights left on all day, freezer door left wide open while they put something in the sink to deforst, etc. And the government is no better. Street lights here burn 24 hours a day as long as there's electricty and functioning bulbs.