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Thu Mar 31, 2016, 03:17 PM

Ooops!

Since this morning FiveThirtyEight has seriously reversed. I'm sure glad I got the info about how to find out about their methods from you folks earlier today. What has happened is that two polls that are much closer to voting day show Sanders winning. The polls are not only close, but probably have good reliability. I only see one in RealClearPolitics from today, and that's PPP. Don't know what the other is... Oh dear.

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Reply Ooops! (Original post)
LAS14 Mar 2016 OP
BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #1
LAS14 Mar 2016 #2
BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #3
Thinkingabout Mar 2016 #4

Response to LAS14 (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 04:44 PM

1. WI will be close either way,

and yes, Bernie looks to be in the lead right now. But I'm not losing any sleep over that. I doubt that Hillary's campaign is either.

Per FiveThirtyEight, Hillary's delegate target is 38/86 for WI, while Sanders's delegate target is 48/86. Sanders must achieve that delegate target, at the least.

With a lead of about 230 pledged delegates already, Hillary can afford to miss her target. I suspect, however, that even if she loses the primary, she will achieve slightly more delegates than the target goal, which means that Sanders will fall even farther behind than he is now despite his "win" in WI.

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 04:53 PM

2. Thanks for the reassurance. nt

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Response to LAS14 (Reply #2)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 04:59 PM

3. It is a nerve-wracking time,

that's for sure!

It's not so much the final outcome that is stressful or uncertain. It's all this brouhaha that we have to deal with on a daily basis from some of the more rabid and zealous SBS supporters. They spend much more time pissing on Hillary for everything she has said and done since forever (per GPer TPs at that) than on stressing their candidate's strengths.

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Response to LAS14 (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 09:25 PM

4. Though we would like to see a win we know Hillary is not in the category of having to get more

Than 50%, breaking even will still net the number of delegates she needs. The SD will start with their endorsements for Hillary.

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