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Thu Mar 31, 2016, 01:39 PM

WaPo's take on upcoming delegate math

Bernie Sandersís insurmountable delegate problem, in one simple graph

There's actually more than one graph, but ...


Whether or not New Yorkers view as one of their own, they clearly prefer Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee. Polling has repeatedly shown Clinton with a lead in the state; a new survey from Quinnipiac University, released on Thursday, has Clinton up by 12 percentage points.

This comes on the heels of a survey showing Sanders stretching out his lead in Wisconsin. Sanders is up four points in that state, according to a Marquette Law School survey released this week.

But we must be clear: These states are not equivalent. This is not a tie, with Clinton winning one state and Sanders winning another. It is, instead, a clear demonstration of why Bernie Sanders almost certainly won't be the Democratic nominee.

After all, it comes down to delegates. Wisconsin has 86 delegates; New York has 247. Since the party distributes its delegates proportionally, that means that Sanders's slight Wisconsin lead would earn him a slightly bigger portion of the state's small delegate haul. Clinton's larger New York lead would earn her a larger portion of the state's large delegate haul.

But we should take no vote anywhere for granted.

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Reply WaPo's take on upcoming delegate math (Original post)
BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 OP
George II Mar 2016 #1
upaloopa Mar 2016 #2

Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 01:46 PM

1. That's the point - winning states doesn't necessarily mean winning delegates.

Even if it was, Sanders would be woefully behind - Clinton has won 18, Sanders 14. And Sanders has won states in the lower range of delegates, Clinton in the higher range. That's why she has a ~230 delegate lead.

The way the two states shape up, Sanders will win roughly 44 delegates in Wisconsin, Clinton 42 and Sanders will win 98 delegates in New York, Clinton 149.

So, they're "tied" for wins in the next two primaries, but Clinton has 191 delegates, Sanders 142. Sanders' "tie" will leave him 49 delegates further behind.

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 01:58 PM

2. You think the Bernie folks want super delegates now, just wait until the

pledge delegate math makes it impossible for him to win

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