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Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:20 AM

 

Nate Silver on Math

NATE SILVER 12:03 AM

Sandersís Tough Math ~There are 131 pledged delegates at stake tonight for Democrats. Itís going to be hard for Sanders to win a majority of those given that Arizona has most of the delegates and Clinton is winning big there, but itís not impossible if he crushes it in Utah and Idaho. So letís say he almost does it. Clinton gets 66 delegates on the night and Sanders gets 65.

That would get Sanders up to 920 pledged delegates, while Clinton would have 1,242, with 1,889 pledged delegates still outstanding. Skipping a little bit of math, but Sanders would need 59 percent of the remaining total to tie Clinton in pledged delegates. Thatís really difficult to do; it would be equivalent to beating Clinton by 18 percentage points the rest of the way out. Merely breaking even in delegates isnít nowhere near enough for Sanders at this point.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

19 replies, 2344 views

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Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 19 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver on Math (Original post)
Her Sister Mar 2016 OP
Her Sister Mar 2016 #1
Kaleva Mar 2016 #3
NurseJackie Mar 2016 #7
Treant Mar 2016 #8
Kaleva Mar 2016 #9
SunSeeker Mar 2016 #10
NurseJackie Mar 2016 #11
Kaleva Mar 2016 #13
NurseJackie Mar 2016 #14
Kaleva Mar 2016 #15
LiberalFighter Mar 2016 #19
liberal N proud Mar 2016 #2
stonecutter357 Mar 2016 #4
BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #5
Thinkingabout Mar 2016 #6
Tarheel_Dem Mar 2016 #12
Dawson Leery Mar 2016 #16
Tarheel_Dem Mar 2016 #18
Codeine Mar 2016 #17

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:22 AM

1. We can make informed predictions

 

We can make informed predictions.

We know that Clinton does best in larger, more diverse states. We know that Sanders does best in smaller, less diverse states. That's a pattern, and I see no reason to believe that pattern will get flipped upside down. Given that and Clinton's 300+ delegate lead, it's virtually impossible for Sanders to win the nomination.

Request after request has been made for someone to use one of the delegate calculators to demonstrate a realistic path to 2026 for Sanders. As far as I know, those requests have never been answered. There's a reason for that.



Plagiarizing (again) this comment from Garrett78 (LOL!!) http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511547639#post31

Thought t'was perfect and succinct!

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Response to Her Sister (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:26 AM

3. No answers yet to this question posted in the Bernie group

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Response to Kaleva (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 01:10 PM

7. 0 replies, 119 views

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 01:19 PM

8. One view was mine

and I didn't answer because I thought the way it was set up was far too rosy for Bernie.

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 01:42 PM

9. I just kicked it back to the top.

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Response to Kaleva (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 02:14 PM

10. LOL

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #10)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 02:36 PM

11. Kaleva will probably be banned for that! :-P

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #11)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 06:32 PM

13. Yes I have and the OP has been deleted.

OP's post:

"I've been ordered to delete this discussion

by a mod or I will be blocked from the group.

I guess we can't discuss delegate math here..."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=155764

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Response to Kaleva (Reply #13)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 06:53 PM

14. Bernbabe shouldn't have deleted the post. At worst the only thing they could ...

... have done would be to lock it, but not delete it. As it turns out, the threat to "self-delete or be banned" was an empty promise. Bernbabe deleted the post as requested, and was BANNED ANYWAY.

It's absolutely hysterical that you got banned for making a "kick" post. No text, just "kicked".

They're getting a bit touchy over there, aren't they?

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #14)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:08 PM

15. I'm banned member #306 and he's #307

I'm not upset for being banned as I'm not a Bernie supporter and they can run their group as they see fit. And your right about Bernbabe should not have deleted his post as it was an interesting question which could have been cross posted in GDP if no one in the Bernie group wanted to answer it there.

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Response to Kaleva (Reply #3)

Fri Mar 25, 2016, 01:52 AM

19. I got blocked from the Sanders group yesterday after only one reply.

It was only stating information about the Arizona fiasco. Beam Me Up Scotty blocked me.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:26 AM

2. It's all about the math

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:31 AM

4. K&R!

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:49 AM

5. Then there is this, while still awaiting last

night's results and final delegate totals.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won Arizona easily, while Bernie Sanders won Utah and (although it hasnít been called officially yet) very probably will win Idaho ó in both cases perhaps by overwhelming margins. Thus, itís probable ó likely if I had to guess ó that Sanders will win more pledged delegates on the evening.

Not all the news is good for Sanders, however. He was expected to win more delegates on the evening based on our demographic targets ó and more importantly, heís far enough behind Clinton that he needs to not just meet but blow out his delegate targets the rest of the way to have a shot at eventually catching Clinton. Alaska, Hawaii and Washington will vote on Saturday, states where we expect Sanders to perform well.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:34 PM

6. I expect the majority of the super delegates to go to Hillary and if any are going to change it will

be from Sanders to Hillary.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 02:53 PM

12. "Merely breaking even in delegates isnít nowhere near enough for Sanders at this point."

This is the part the BS'ers stubbornly refuse to accept. He needs blowouts everywhere from now on.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #12)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 09:46 PM

16. April 19 and 26 are going to be dark days for him.

We in the Northeast are ready to give Hillary the nod.

Wisconsin may go against him too.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #16)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:00 AM

18. Fingers & toes crossed.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:18 PM

17. Better than Nate Silver on meth.

 

Dude will not shut up!

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