STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 3, 2016
Current and past editions of SotP can always be found at its website, http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com/
As always, please keep this thread kicked so that non-night-owls can see it. 
Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,052, Sanders 427 (Clinton +625).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 596, Sanders 399 (Clinton +197).
Versus Targets: Clinton 596/529 (+67), Sanders 399/492 (-93).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Latest Results
Super Tuesday: Clinton 505, Sanders 334 (Clinton +171); 26 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 505/453 (+52), Sanders 334/412 (-78).
Next Primary: March 5
Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska: 109 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 57, Sanders 52.
Latest Polls
Florida (University of North Florida): Clinton 54, Sanders 24 (Clinton +30).
Mississippi (Magellan): Clinton 65, Sanders 11 (Clinton +54).
Louisiana (Magellan): Clinton 61, Sanders 14 (Clinton +47).
Current Polls-Plus Projections
Louisiana: Clinton 75.0, Sanders 17.9.
Michigan: Clinton 61.2, Sanders 35.8.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.2, Sanders 14.5.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.5, Sanders 36.0.
Ohio: Clinton 60.8, Sanders 36.9.
Florida: Clinton 67.4, Sanders 29.2.
Illinois: Clinton 66.1, Sanders 29.8.
Current Endorsement Score
Clinton 478, Sanders 5.
Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 316, Cruz 226, Rubio 106.
Michigan Projection: Trump 36, Rubio 24, Cruz 16.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 157, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.
Comments
Not much to say until March 5th, except that we still don't have all the Super Tuesday delegates allocated. Numbers are starting to come in for the rest of the southern states, however, and it seems clear that Hillary is set to beat her target in these states as well. I'll probably have more to say about targets, and what beating them or not beating them means. Suffice it to say, for now, that Bernie has only really "won" three states, Vermont, Oklahoma, and Colorado, and has tied in a fourth, New Hampshire. Hillary has won every other state in the sense that she beat the target number that she was expected to hit, given the demographic skew of the particular states.
How This Works
All information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except for the total delegate count, which is taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The endorsement score refers to
Pun of the Day
I didn't understand the math, so the teacher summed it up for me!
= new reply since forum marked as read
MI, IL, PA, NJ, NY, and FL would all like to have a word.
They won't supply the lopsided percentages that GA did, but they're delegate-rich and all moderately Clinton states.
Do you ever sleep?!
You need 2,383 to win the nomination.
Let's only count 'the pledged delegates.'
Sanders has 399.
399 out 2,383. Yeah. That's so much better.
