Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:52 PM

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/

"Super Tuesday: Live Coverage
2016 ELECTION UPDATED 6:23 PM MAR 1, 2016

DAVID WASSERMAN 6:46 PM
Q: What is a good/great/bad night for Hillary in delegate count — what is her/Bernie’s floor/ceiling? — commenter Rodrigo Paramo

A: Our delegate tracker interactive projects that Clinton would need to win 453 delegates tonight to be “on track” for a majority of pledged delegates, while Sanders would need 412. So, I’d say anything under close to 500 would be a very good night for Clinton, while anything over 550 would be a terrific night. Anything over 400 would be a celebration-worthy night for Sanders, while anything under 300 would be a viability-devastating outcome for him."

10 replies, 1915 views

Thread info Bookmark this thread Trash this thread

Reply to this thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum

Replies to this discussion thread

10 replies	Author	Time	Post
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/ (Original post)	Her Sister	Mar 2016	OP
K&R!	stonecutter357	Mar 2016	#1
Good anology	Thinkingabout	Mar 2016	#2
This is a great	MSMITH33156	Mar 2016	#3
GOP needed numbers tonite to have a good night	Her Sister	Mar 2016	#4
Rachel said a little while ago that Hillary's camp thinks they'll lose MA?	Satch59	Mar 2016	#5
Most of us here suspect MA will be Too Close for Comfort	jmowreader	Mar 2016	#6
NBC	MSMITH33156	Mar 2016	#7
K&R	ismnotwasm	Mar 2016	#8
so she is on track!	Her Sister	Mar 2016	#9
Hillary won 505 delegates, BS 334 yesterday	Her Sister	Mar 2016	#10

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:54 PM

stonecutter357 (12,525 posts)

1. K&R!

Reply to this post

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:55 PM

Thinkingabout (30,058 posts)

2. Good anology

Reply to this post

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:55 PM

MSMITH33156 (879 posts)

3. This is a great

Thanks! It's hard to see what's good and not because states don't matter, it's delegates. Great level setter.

Reply to this post

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:55 PM

Her Sister (6,444 posts)

4. GOP needed numbers tonite to have a good night

"DAVID WASSERMAN 6:28 PM
According to FiveThirtyEight’s handy new delegate interactive, Trump needs about 225 delegates in tonight’s contests to be “on track” to win 1,237 — a majority — of convention delegates by June. By contrast, Cruz needs 302 delegates (mostly because his route runs through his home state of Texas), while Rubio needs only about 203.

However, given Trump’s dominance so far, winning only 225 delegates tonight would have to be considered something of a disappointment for his backers. What would a really terrific Trump night look like? I’d argue that he would need to win more than 300 of the 595 available to look dominant. What would an OK/unsurprising night look like? Probably between 250 and 300.

How about a disappointing night for Trump? That probably means anything less than 250, which would open the door for Rubio or someone else to overtake him in later winner-take-all states. Fellow data nerds: agree or disagree on these over/unders?"

Reply to this post

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:59 PM

Satch59 (1,351 posts)

5. Rachel said a little while ago that Hillary's camp thinks they'll lose MA?

Thought she was expected to win or maybe be close?

Reply to this post

Response to Satch59 (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 08:29 PM

jmowreader (49,395 posts)

6. Most of us here suspect MA will be Too Close for Comfort

Somewhere in the neighborhood of Sanders +3 to Clinton +2 is my best guess. It is a very white state that borders Vermont.

Reply to this post

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:38 AM

MSMITH33156 (879 posts)

7. NBC

just ESTIMATED the delegates. It's fuzzy math because they haven't counted all the votes yet and allocated them. But they were saying roughly 525 tonight for Hillary. That puts her in the "very good" to "terrific" range.

Bernie is down the 300s.

Reply to this post

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:42 AM

ismnotwasm (41,139 posts)