The magic threshold for delegate spread after ST is +100

[Godhumor]

I've posted before about my thoughts on delegate math from proportionally weighted primaries like those on the Democratic side. Quite simply, just winning states is not enough to guarantee victory for any candidate.

So, I posted a little while ago that I believe, from doing some simple math, that if Clinton finishes off Super Tuesday with at least a 100 delegate lead (Well, technically 90, but I'm giving a slight buffer), Sanders will not be able to make up the ground even with favorable states, due to the proportional awarding of delegates.

SC has gotten us well on the way all by its lonesome. But the math says get to a 100 spread and then hold it to the convention.

Edit: This is an HRC Group post.

[Cha]

1. Kick with a big thank you, GH!

[Kaleva]

2. Deleting. My info was wrong.

[Gothmog]

3. A very good Super Tuesday for Bernie Sanders may not be good enough

Again, the name of the game is delegates and even if Sanders win the above states it will not affect the nomination process http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/very-good-super-tuesday-bernie-sanders-may-not-be-good-enough?cid=sm_fb_allin

Sanders is strong in small states, while Clinton is stronger in bigger states. Sanders and his team are targeting five states on Super Tuesday, the day next week when 11 states will hold primaries or caucus all at once. And the senator’s team is also hoping to pick up wins in three caucus states that hold contests the following weekend. If things go well, Sanders could win eight states to Clinton’s seven (her six Super Tuesday targets plus Louisiana).

But all states are not created equal when it comes to winning the Democratic nomination. Not only is Clinton stronger in larger, more delegate-rich states, but she’s ahead by larger margins in those places, which could allow her to rack up delegates under the Democratic Party’s proportional allocation system.

Sanders’ targeted Super Tuesday states have a combined 288 delegates. Clinton’s six have 571.

Much of this dynamic is due to a familiar challenge for Sanders. “Most of the Democrats’ delegates are in places that are more diverse,” said David Wasserman, who has been tracking the Democratic delegate map for the Cook Political Report. “If Hillary Clinton performs as well as her current trends among African-Americans, Latinos and whites would indicate, then she will be on track to win between 75-100 more delegates on Super Tuesday.”

Texas is the biggest prize on Super Tuesday, with 222 delegates at stake. Four new polls out this week show Clinton with an average lead of 30 points or more ahead of Sanders. That’s a margin that not only makes it nearly impossible for Sanders to close the gap in time, but also suggests she can put away a disproportionate amount of delegates in the most delegate-rich state of all the March contests.

I look forward to seeing the results of Super Tuesday including Texas

[MineralMan]

4. I think she will exceed that spread considerably, frankly.

I've seen a number of people claim that Bernie Sanders will win in Minnesota. I do not see that happening in any way. I'm betting that Hillary wins that state 60-40. At this point, I believe that Bernie will win only Vermont on ST. I could still be wrong, but that's what I'm thinking right now.

Texas, too. She'll have a 100 pledged delegate lead on March 2, no problem. Her pledged delegate lead is already 25+. That's a quarter of the way to 100 and we've only had primary events in four small states.

[Godhumor]

5. She should surpass +100 going away

Everything over 100 is gravy, as far as I'm concerned.

[Treant]

6. That should be easily done

Just walking in to Super Tuesday, she's got a +26 lead. She now only needs another +74 delegates on Super Tuesday.

While Texas alone won't do that, it's going to give her a nice chunk of that total.

[UtahLib]

7. K&R. nt.

[Chichiri]

8. Can you post a link to where you you did that math?

Thanks.

[Godhumor]

9. Sure

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511331854

The "actual" count I can up with is 83; the amount he regains if he goes on a run from Mid-March to early April.

[fleabiscuit]

10. K&R