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Mon Jan 11, 2016, 01:40 PM

I'm not buying the IBD/TIPP polling

You probably have seen the post about Hillary's lead in the national polling falling to near a statistical tie with Bernie. The poll raises more questions and moreover I see no statistical breakdown of how many were polled and what is their political breakdown.

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-polls/011116-789089-hillaryclinton-lead-nearly-vanishes-among-democrats.htm

I went to Real Clear Politics and looked at the polling from Monday, the day the IBD/TIPP poll showing Hillary's lead near vanished. To balance I read polling from Fox News from Friday because it was the only polling data available that day.

See if you notice the interesting part of the two polls?

Monday 1/11/16 - 2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination - IBD/TIPP - Clinton 43, Sanders 39, O'Malley 2 - Clinton +4
Friday 1/08/16 - 2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination - FOX News - Clinton 54, Sanders 39, O'Malley 3 - Clinton +15

We are to believe Hillary fell -11 points over the weekend and Bernie not get a bump in his numbers? He is at 39 points in both polls. Where did those points go?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

11 replies, 2715 views

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Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply I'm not buying the IBD/TIPP polling (Original post)
Tommy2Tone Jan 2016 OP
Thinkingabout Jan 2016 #1
Tommy2Tone Jan 2016 #2
pandr32 Jan 2016 #7
Godhumor Jan 2016 #3
William769 Jan 2016 #5
BainsBane Jan 2016 #4
FloridaBlues Jan 2016 #6
NurseJackie Jan 2016 #8
Tommy2Tone Jan 2016 #9
Treant Jan 2016 #10
Historic NY Jan 2016 #11

Response to Tommy2Tone (Original post)

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 01:45 PM

1. Hum, wonder how much this bump is from the breached database?

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 01:52 PM

2. I wonder how much these polls are from including independents?

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 02:11 PM

7. Interesting

All that time searching these critical for Sanders primary states. Even though he has "fired" his data guy and "suspended" two other staffers, did any of the stolen information get casually shared with others in the campaign, or less casually utilized? Hopefully the investigation will be extensive and also look at cell phone and e-mail records between campaign staff members, including Sanders and his wife.
We have no answers, and I know that since the DNC is under constant attack from not-so-liberal media and from Bernie supporters they are likely to bend over backwards not to do anything until after the election, or worry that any action could backfire and harm Hillary Clinton who was the victim of the raided information to to the data breach.
I want to make clear that just because a breach has occurred, actually raiding the previously blocked information is unethical. In fact, it is theft. Are we supposed to believe that that critical information was of no interest to anyone else in the campaign, or that they never spoke of it or shared it in any way with others in the Sanders campaign?

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Response to Tommy2Tone (Original post)

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 01:55 PM

3. It's one poll. Either others will show the same trend or they won't

Let the Berners have their day, today.

The onslaught of Iowa polling is about to start, so it won't be long before we have something else to talk about.

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Response to Godhumor (Reply #3)

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 02:05 PM

5. Exactly.

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Response to Tommy2Tone (Original post)

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 01:56 PM

4. Any one poll can be an outlier

what matters is the polling averages.

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Response to Tommy2Tone (Original post)

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 02:05 PM

6. I agree this poll is questionable

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Response to Tommy2Tone (Original post)

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 02:17 PM

8. What's the margin of error? Who was polled? How were they polled?

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #8)

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 02:22 PM

9. Exactly my questions

I looked and could not find the data anywhere. Then I remembered it was a poll showing Hillary losing support so that is all the media and Bernie bots need to throw a party.

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Response to Tommy2Tone (Original post)

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 02:30 PM

10. Give it time

We're just barely into the period where polling Iowa and New Hampshire isn't the equivalent of "darts at a dartboard." As we get closer, the data will get better.

Radical shifts in the last week bear watching and poll analysis. Right now, I'm calling this an outlier.

We should also note that primary polling tends to be not very good to begin with. The money to do it just isn't there, so poll quality tends to be far lower than for the general elections.

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Response to Tommy2Tone (Original post)

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 09:33 PM

11. Its the arithmetic.....

it doesn't add up

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