Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumFrom FiveThirtyEight: Senator Sanders, You're No Barack Obama (HILLARY GROUP)
Is the 2016 Democratic primary a sequel of 2008?....(W)e have plenty of data to see a number of problems with comparing Sanderss rise to President Obamas toppling of Hillary Clinton in 2008.
There are clear differences between the Sanders and Obama campaigns. Most obvious is that Obama won 82 percent of the black vote in the 2008 primary, while Sanders continues to pick up less than 10 percent of black voters support. But the two Clinton campaigns have big differences too. The best data we have polling, endorsements and fundraising says Clinton is in a much stronger position now than she was at this point in the 2008 cycle.
* Polling
....Clinton is doing better in every single state. On average, shes doing 21 percentage points better. Nationally, shes 18 percentage points ahead of her old mark. (This shrinks to 12 percentage points if you just look at August data.)...
Simply put, Clinton has more support from Democratic primary voters this summer than she did in 2007. Moreover, no one in her polling position has lost a primary in the modern era.
* Endorsements
We talk about the endorsement primary a lot at FiveThirtyEight. Thats because no other variable has been as consistently predictive of who becomes the nominee. Obama was trailing Clinton in endorsements in 2007, but he still had plenty of support from governors, House members and senators. Sanders hasnt yet received a single endorsement from anyone in those groups.
....Clinton has more than twice the support within the party as she did at this point in the 2008 cycle.
* Fundraising
....Through June of this year, Clinton had raised 73 percent of all money donated to Democratic presidential candidates. Sanders had raised 23 percent. Clinton also has plenty of PAC and super PAC money behind her, and Sanders has chosen not to rely on super PAC support....
***
By pretty much every metric, Clinton is in a stronger position than she was at this point eight years ago. That doesnt mean she is guaranteed to win, but the 2016 Democratic presidential primary is not the 2008 primary.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-youre-no-barack-obama/ via FiveThirtyEight
shenmue
(38,506 posts)postatomic
(1,771 posts)But he's already had couple Super PACs being formed. The Sanders campaign response; "it's a free country, they can do what they want".
Sanders denies knowledge of these Super PACs. Yea, right.
postatomic
(1,771 posts)Amazon must have sold all their Rose Colored Glasses.
SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)Jamaal510
(10,893 posts)working in his favor was that he hailed from a unique background and caught the media's attention through many ways. He ran to be the country's first president of color and was raised in a multi-racial family, he was born in Hawaii, and he had experience as a community organizer and as a professor in addition to serving as an Illinois senator. To top it all off, his campaign was Internet-savvy, and his messages were powerful, yet positive and hopeful in a time where the country was in a couple of wars and shedding jobs. He was a once-in-a-lifetime candidate who was able to captivate the hearts of millions of people worldwide.
DeepModem Mom
(38,402 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,233 posts)Cha
(297,154 posts)Hope and Change.. so much.
those who don't know this are on the wrong side of history.
This
Tarheel_Dem
(31,233 posts)DeepModem Mom
(38,402 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Nate is correct on all points.
Gothmog
(145,130 posts)Nate is correct in that Bernie is not close to being a threat to Hillary Clinton
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)worked with Hillary and Bernie, it is a vote of confidence for Hillary.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)n/t