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Thu Apr 21, 2016, 04:18 PM

Al Giordano: PA +10 looks more realistic

He's usually right, so to tamp down what may be unrealistic expectations....

AlGiordano ‏@AlGiordano 42m42 minutes ago
The demographic modeling done by @benchmarkpol w PA +10 looks to me more realistic than +27

http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/2016/04/pennsylvania-final-county-benchmarks.html?m=1

8 replies, 583 views

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Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
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Reply Al Giordano: PA +10 looks more realistic (Original post)
Rose Siding Apr 2016 OP
CrowCityDem Apr 2016 #1
Rose Siding Apr 2016 #3
CrowCityDem Apr 2016 #4
Thinkingabout Apr 2016 #2
NastyRiffraff Apr 2016 #5
Tarheel_Dem Apr 2016 #6
Walk away Apr 2016 #7
Cha Apr 2016 #8

Response to Rose Siding (Original post)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 04:26 PM

1. It's still plenty to put the final nail in this campaign season.

 

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Response to CrowCityDem (Reply #1)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 04:35 PM

3. Absolutely. My point in mentioning it is that if her win isn't as big as advertised, it gets spun

as being bad for her, like he's gaining or something when actually one of the polls is off.

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Response to Rose Siding (Reply #3)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 04:40 PM

4. I don't think anyone is seriously going to believe the +27 spread is real.

 

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Response to Rose Siding (Original post)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 04:27 PM

2. Every primary where Hillary wins raises the bar for Sanders to get passed.

In the states where there is large delegate counts it hurts him more. I still want to get the results from California and DC, more votes for Hillary and more delegates.

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Response to Rose Siding (Original post)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 04:45 PM

5. I'll take it!

+10 is just fine. Big chunks of PA are rural; Sanders will probably get a lot of that. Hillary will dominate the urban/suburban areas.

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Response to Rose Siding (Original post)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 04:48 PM

6. +10 works for me.

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Response to Rose Siding (Original post)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 06:14 PM

7. I have a real world bet down for double digits!

So it has to be a minimum 10%

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Response to Walk away (Reply #7)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 10:23 PM

8. Good Luck!

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