In 2008, the gender votes in Arizona for President Barack Obama were as follows:
Males (49): 45%
Females (51): 45%
In 2004, John Kerry received 47% from females (the first of the two genders who will vote Democratic; works opposite with men and Republicans). They scaled back to 45% because of native son McCain a major-party nominee. Males supported Kerry with 41%. So, the male vote really moved. What would have been interesting is if Obama would have won over the female vote had the 2008 GOP nod gone to a non-Arizonan. Given the six-percent difference in females' and males' support of Kerry...that's feasible.
In 2004, George W. Bush won Arizona by nearly 11 percent. McCain held his home state in the Republican column by nearly 8.50 percent. I think Ariz. would have reduced its GOP support more conspicuously had it not been for the nomination of John McCain.
As for Arizona possibly becoming a pickup for a re-elected Barack Obama: I think it is won of four states feasible. Typical pattern of re-election for incumbent is to gain in electoral votes. But at the same time, there's a little compromise. Many re-elected incumbents find themselves having lost at least one state (carried in first-term election) and then counter that with a pickup here or there in states that held for the loser of party that previously had the White House.
In 1992, Bill Clinton's carriage of Colorado, Georgia, and Montana flipped for 1996 challenger Bob Dole. But Clinton countered and won over two states that supported 1992's unseated George H. W. Bush: Arizona and Florida. In 2000, George W. Bush's carriage of New Hampshire became a 2004 pickup for challenger John Kerry. But Bush countered that loss with winning over Iowa and New Mexico. Clinton went from 370 (1992) to 379 (electoral votes). Bush went from 271 (2000) to 286 (electoral votes). It should be noted that Bush's two elections were of maps with different allocations of electoral votes: his 2000 map, had it been reallocated to 2004's (meaning carriage of the same states), were worth not 271 but 278. Loss of N.H. (4) and pickups of Ia. (7) and N.M. (5) meant the difference in the states flipped and picked up were a gain of 8 electoral votes (but official record stands at 15). Clinton's maps were applicable to the 1990s, and his gain was indeed 9 electoral votes.
I can envision Obama not holding Indiana, but not seeing it shift as dramatically as 10 points to Mitt Romney. (It would top off at 5. Obama won it over, in 2008, by 1.03%; so he might lose it between 2 to 4 points.) But I could imagine him winning over at least two of the following three: Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and Montana. Except Ariz., the other three were McCain/GOP states where Obama won the female vote. That means, shall re-election manifest, likely GOP nominee Mitt Romney will not hold them all and would lose enough of them to send Obama's 365 (re-allocated to 359) electoral votes into the 370s.
Yes! Arizona can become a Democratic pickup. Men at 45% for Obama, in 2008, could go up between 48% to 50% while women hit 51% to 52% -- to win it over. The state, this year marking its 100th birthday, has a pretty good track record voting for the winner. At least in its first five decades. But all presidents, having been elected beyond one term, carried Arizona at least once. And right now the record stands that Ariz. -- along with North Dakota and bellwether Ohio -- is one of those precious few for which no Republican has ever won the presidency without having carried this given state.
ARIZONA (1912-2008)
1912: Woodrow Wilson (D)
1916: Wilson (D)
1920: Warren Harding (R) - pickup
1924: Calvin Coolidge (R)
1928: Herbert Hoover (R)
1932: Franklin Roosevelt (D) - pickup
1936: Roosevelt (D)
1940: Roosevelt (D)
1944: Roosevelt (D)
1948: Harry Truman (D)
1952: Dwight Eisenhower (R) - pickup
1956: Eisenhower (R)
1960: Richard Nixon (R)
*1964: Barry Goldwater (R)
1968: Richard Nixon (R)
1972: Nixon (R)
1976: Gerald Ford (R)
1980: Ronald Reagan (R)
1984: Reagan (R)
1988: George Bush (R)
1992: Bush (R)
1996: Bill Clinton (D) - pickup
2000: George W. Bush (R)
2004: Bush (R)
*2008: John McCain (R)
Arizona has voted for the winner in 20 of its 25 elections. Two of the three in which Ariz. was not in the column of the winning candidate were ones in which a native son lost nationally but carried his home state. After its first five decades of siding with the winner, Ariz. tilted decisively Republican. But the demographics are nowadays becoming more favorable to make this state more competitive.
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