How Many Here Think Trump Can't Win?

[scottie55]

I have a friend who is a Trump Supporter.

I understand why he supports Trump.

He thinks the entire system is corrupt, and thinks Trump who is not owned by anyone will fix it.

Kinda hard to argue with him on this fact.

I really want to know my friends if you think America will do what they did when they re-elected Bush.

[TreasonousBastard]

1. If he's gotten this far, he could win.

[whatthehey]

2. Well he COULD, but it's very very unlikely

Look at the last EV map. Consider demographic changes. Consider Trump's abysmal ratings with anyone but white men. Try and come up with ways he plausibly flips enough blue states to get to 270, and keeps all the pale red ones despite his ability to piss off anyone at any time with his thin-skinned insecurities.

[Scootaloo]

3. Of course he can win. And it seems Democrats might just let him.

Complacency kills. Especially complacency towards an enemy combined with hostility towards allies.

Right now there's a nasty attitude of "Alright liberal scum, you're going to take your Clinton medicine and LIKE IT, or else Trump!" But at the same time, from the same people, there's mocking dismissals of Trump's ability to come even close to winning.

It's a nice way to depress Democratic turnout while completely underestimating the other side.

[LonePirate]

6. Liberal scum? What's with the persecution complex?

Plenty of liberals are voting for Hillary. There are more liberals than non-liberals in the Democratic Party and she has won a majority of votes and pledged delegates so far. She's not being force fed to what you consider to be the liberals in the party. The majority of people voting so far simply prefer her. That's how our democracy works.

[Scootaloo]

7. It's not a persecution complex

It's noting the manner in which persons such as yourself speak to the left. As if we are owned and you are owed. It seems that no real thought is given to the effect of belittling people and then demanding their loyalty. Which is the problem I'm noting. The party mainstream seems to have no problem whatsoever with being as degrading and dismissive as possible towards around 35% of hte party, then demanding they "fall in line" no questions asked. Trump is used as a bogeyman to force this fealty. But then these same people seem so very confident that Trump has no chances anyway.

So. Why should people show up to vote for people who clearly do not value them, just to defeat a candidate that is supposed ot have no shot in hell anyway? Why support people who hate you to defeat a vaporware candidate?

It's a poor strategy.

[scottie55]

8. "She's not being force fed to what you consider to be the liberals in the party"

Really?

How about all the "endorsements" from the "party elite"?

The gravy train riders.

If that's not force feeding such a thing doesn't exist.

[leftofcool]

4. No, Trump has only 2 Demographics....angry white men and some Bernie supporters

You can't win with those.

[scottie55]

5. Zero (Democrat) Bernie Supporters Will Vote For Trump

They are more likely to write in Bernie if the don't vote for Hillary.

Independents who want to see something done about our corrupt system? Maybe.....

It's just hard to enthusiastically support a candidate who will never prosecute banksters no matter how many crimes they do.

[Towlie]

9. Trump "fights very hard to pay as little tax as possible" - who'd be better to fix a corrupt system?

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/05/13/donald-trump-on-his-tax-rate-its-none-of-your-business/?_r=0

He also said "he has no offshore accounts that would be discovered."

[patriciastone]

10. I strongly feel that trump actually is owned - even if he prefers that we believe he isn't.

I keep reading in dozens of legitimate sites and blogs that trump has actually spent almost none of his money campaigning despite his promise to do so last year. He is entirely dependent on donors which makes beholden like almost all of the rest. Not to worry because we have known all along that he didn't have a chance.

Check out this picture of him that my nephew sent me today:

http://www.vice.com/read/meryl-streep-in-trump-cosplay-looks-even-scarier-than-the-real-trump-vgtrn?utm_source=vicetwitterus

[ArtD48]

11. Maybe not but . . .

Trump may not be able to win but I think it's dangerous to act as if he can't win.
He should be opposed as if his winning was a real possibility.

[ColemanMaskell]

12. Trump has a 29% chance of winning, at present (per 538)

The people at 538 seem to be superb numbers guys, and at present they estimate Trump as having a 29% chance of winning. They update the prediction every day. They do modelling using data from ALL available polls, plus some other data about past elections. Here is the link to their forecasts:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The link to the site proper, where they have articles explaining the numbers behind a lot of campaign-related stuff, is:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/

This assumes yours was a serious question about whether Trump has any chance of winning. Objectively, he has about a 29% chance if the election were held now.

[Ronald Trump]

13. Trump isn't "owned" by special interests becase he IS a special interest.

All electing Trump does is cut out the middle man.