Soooooo what happens now?

[Soph0571]

PM will win the vote of no confidence tomorrow
The deal will still not pass
Tusk has said come back into the fold
The far right still wants to push us off a cliff
The kinda of OK's want a different deal
The normal people want a new referendum
Corbyn is playing fuck wit games with our country

I predict the PM will still be in 'power' - other than that who the fuck knows? Do you?

PS - gotta love TM in the house tonight basically demanding the no confidence vote is done to her timescale.....just for amusement value - that was some funny shit

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. Confused here, surely the vast majority of your fellow Brits WANT back IN to the EU , right?

[T_i_B]

2. There's still a hardcore of fanatical leavers

Who want out at any cost no matter what the damage. Worse still, this mindset is particularly prevalent among the elderly, who are the most likely to vote in elections.

[Soph0571]

3. You would think so, but no...

There is currently a slim majority based on polls - but that brings up a whole load of issues. If we redo the referendum and remainers win - what would the turn out look like in terms of the historic turn out in 2016? We had over 72% of the vote turn out in 2016. A huge turnout. What is we have another ref and only 50% turnout, but remain wins.... what then? There were communities that had not voted in generations rock up in 2016. We cannot predict if they will turn out again or not. Then the far right will say based on the % of vote the vote is illegitimate.... it is going to be an on-going fuck up for the next decade IMO.

We need to stay in the EU. Fundamentally we are an ex Empire where some white supremacists still think we have huge male pale and stale balls on the world stage on our own. They are fucking idiots

I do not know what will happen - but I know that the fuckwits on both sides of the house cannot deliver what we need.

I see your Trump and want to raise you Brexit - but they are both as equally fucked

[Ghost Dog]

7. ... An ex-Empire, pining, perhaps, for the fjords (or is that just Scotland?)...

The populist far-right is surely not so large, but, yes, vociferous, assisted as it is by media owned and controlled by the rightist elite.

But then there are the various parts of the elite-supporting rightist secret intelligence and security state apparatus, including those parts which consider themselves to be above and beyond any law...

So, the dice are loaded.

[The King of Prussia]

4. Certainly not

There probably is a slight majority for "Remain" but not much of one. I've no idea what happens now. This does however prove what I have thought all my life: a country can't attempt to be both a representative democracy and a direct democracy.

[Soph0571]

5. Referendum is bollocks

It is to binary to be meaningful and generally in referendum we rarely see a progressive choice - other than Ireland recently. Direct democracy tends to ask the easy question for the easy choice for people who do not engage in the wider political process on an ongoing basis.

[The King of Prussia]

6. You probably have to be British to fully appreciate this

But it's a pithy summation of how we got here.

[link:

Link to tweet

|

[Ghost Dog]

8. UK at an Impasse

Theresa May will face a vote of no confidence today after sustaining the heaviest parliamentary defeat of any British prime minister in the democratic era, with MPs rejecting her Brexit deal by a resounding majority of 230. The prime minister is to begin urgent cross-party talks about a new approach but has not said what this might involve. Jeremy Corbyn will table his no-confidence motion in the government, due to be voted on this evening. The backing of both the DUP and Tory MPs means May is almost certain to win and, unable to secure a general election, Corbyn will face intense pressure to commit Labour to supporting a second referendum. The Tory MP Dominic Grieve will present two bills to the House seeking a people’s vote...

Both Brexiters and pro-Europeans are treating the vote as a victory but there is no consensus about its impact. Campaigners for a second referendum are thrilled because they believe it is now more likely. But as May put it: “It is clear that the house does not support this deal, but tonight’s vote tells us nothing about what it does support.” In her statement to MPs after the result, May implied that she was leaning towards a Norway-style soft Brexit by saying she wanted “constructive” talks with Labour MPs. But she also said any proposals must be “genuinely negotiable” and she was committed to delivering on the result of the referendum. Her cabinet is deeply divided on the idea of a softer Brexit, and her party split between dealers and no-dealers...

After May’s defeat, Donald Tusk, the European council president, effectively called for the UK to stay in the EU, saying that a departure deal looked “impossible”. The European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, urged the British government to “clarify its intentions as soon as possible”. In France, President Emmanuel Macron said “maybe we [the EU] will make improvements on one or two things but I don’t really think so”. Michael Roth, Germany’s EU affairs minister, tweeted: “Disaster. Too bad. But EU’s door remains open.” The office of the Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, warned that a “disorderly Brexit is a bad outcome for everyone, not least in Northern Ireland. It is not too late to avoid this outcome and we call on the UK to set out how it proposes to resolve this impasse as a matter of urgency.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/16/wednesday-briefing-brexit-deal-gets-worst-vote-ever

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. Welcome to the Westminster apocalypse. Have you thought about theocracy instead?

The world’s most densely betwatted space at the best of times, Westminster became even more wantonly apocalyptic in the days and hours leading up to the historic defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Behold, a bell-tolling, haute remainer, yellow-vested, journalist-infested, shitbird-MP-crawling, flashmobbed performance art piece entitled: HAVE YOU THOUGHT ABOUT THEOCRACY INSTEAD?

If not, don’t rule it out. An awful lot of things are apparently back on the table after May’s flame-out, including – but not limited to – default no deal, extending article 50, a Norway-style arrangement, second referendum, and return to absolute monarchy, by either the Queen or David Attenborough.

(Pause to point out I advocated a republic with David Attenborough as president 20 years ago, and typically found monarchists were remarkably receptive...)

The scale of the task of unbreaking Britain is jointly summed up by the vote result, and by each of the polar-opposite factions outside parliament being convinced they’d won. Everyone celebrated maniacally. As far as the UK’s lo-viz yellow vest movement goes, Westminster pavements are now a great place to get hooked up with the right militia for you in the event of no deal. As for the more provisional wing of the People’s Vote, we no longer need to computer-model the answer to the question: what would happen if you gave everyone on Henman Hill crystal meth?
...
The same could not be said of Theresa May, who rose to the occasion like a replicant Anglepoise lamp. Basic shambles model. Indeed, speaking of the abdication, it’s grimly amusing to consider that Theresa May’s big intervention in the 2015 general election campaign was to warn that “if we saw a Labour government propped up by the SNP, it could be the biggest constitutional crisis since the abdication”. As it turned out, madam would have something rather bigger up her own sleeve.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/16/westminster-apocalypse-may-tories-opportunity

BMG asked whether people would support or oppose various alternative Brexit options. By 46% to 28% people would support a second referendum. By 45% to 39% people would support reversing Brexit and just remaining. Further negotiations were supported by 45% to 34%. A “Norway-style deal” was supported by 40% to 36%. Leaving without a deal was opposed by 45% to 35%.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10043

I should point out the polling question about Norway was "... to what extent would you support or oppose the UK entering an Norway-style arrangement with the EU on a temporary basis until a longer-term deal can be arranged? " Poll available here
I don't know if it's feasible to get an Article 50 extension and then go for the 'Norway option until something else can be worked out', but it might be worth a try. Except that's more or less the Corbyn solution at the moment, so the Tories won't use it on principle.

[LeftishBrit]

10. As the farmer in a remote area told the traveller who was seeking directions to the nearest town...

'If I were you, I wouldn't start from here'

[ZeroSomeBrains]

11. General question about what happens now that May survived

Does anyone know whether there is enough will to get a deal through? It seems like these negotiations have been going on forever and that there's no consensus within the Torries to get any Brexit deal. Are they really going to have nothing when they have to leave in a few months?

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. No, no-one knows (not just among us - no-one in the world knows)

Someone has to change their mind - I'd say the closest British proposals that could be melded into something that could get a majority and the EU would agree to are, ironically, May's and Corbyn's. Some sort of customs union without freedom of movement.

But both, especially May, don't want to have a 'grand coalition' to solve this, because it would tear apart their parties to cooperate with the other (May is in more danger because the anti-EU feeling in a large wing of the Tories runs deep); and they know they'd then face a rejuvenated UKIP that picks up defectors from the old party/parties.

Yes, still possible to end up with 'no deal' and an exit at the end of March.

[Denzil_DC]

13. The "red line" sticking point adopted vociferously by May and aped by Corbyn restricts options.

The EU regards the four freedoms (of goods, capital, services and labour) as sacrosanct and non-negotiable for single market membership.

"Freedom of movement" of people within the EU can legally be restricted even under the current rules to avoid benefit shopping etc., and mechanisms to avoid undercutting local wages (one of the Lexit arguments) would not be hard to impose.

By having bought into the right-wing tropes on these issues, the two have boxed themselves into the same corner, and they'd lose face without some fancy footwork to explain any change of heart. What was a general, vague hand-waving vote to "Leave the EU" has been transformed into "of course that means leaving the customs union/single market, that's what the people voted for" even though we have leading Brexiteers on record during the referendum as insisting it didn't mean any such thing.

An about-face would be most embarrassing for May, who as Home Secretary will be best remembered for her "hostile environment" while she failed to enforce the systems allowable under EU rules which would have restricted residency for those moving from other EU countries who failed to find work within a certain period, and would have imposed conditions on access to healthcare etc. The only explanation for why she didn't do so (other than the usual incompetence - she failed to reduce immigration despite all her efforts) is that the government knows that EU immigrants bring net financial benefits (among others) and imposing such a system would require expenditure on a bureaucracy to track them.

I can't see how a solution can be found that avoids no deal while she's still prime minister, and time's fast running out to replace her (I'm also not hopeful that Corbyn would win a general election, let alone grasp the opportunities to change tack with hardliners like Seamus Milne, O'Donnell and Unite leader McCluskey in the picture).

For those scared of and opposed to immigrants, a no deal Brexit won't be a solution, as those they're most likely to object to don't even come from the EU, and we're going to need more of them to make up for the shortages of EU workers.

Leaving the EU customs union is what will cause the major problems at the UK's borders - in Dover and Northern Ireland etc.

The much-vaunted "Norway-with-as-many-pluses-as-you-like" deals for access to the single market but not the customs union would require accepting the four freedoms and also making a financial contribution (Norway pays around £140 per capita per year), and wouldn't avoid the need for border checks.

A "Canada"-style agreement for limited access to the customs union wouldn't entail accepting the four freedoms, but would exclude services - the backbone of the current UK economy (Turkey and some smaller countries also have some access to the customs union, but not for services).

Any trade agreement with the EU is likely to include restrictions on the UK's terms of trade with non-EU countries. Any standalone trade agreements we eventually manage to make with non-EU countries would likely include quotas for visas enabling their citizens to move and work here. It's also not hard to see how a trade deal with the US, for instance (especially if Trump or his like remain in power) could compromise UK standards and restrict options in other trade deals.

Any of these options would involve the UK becoming a rule-taker, not a rule-maker, inflaming the neo-sovereigntists, and negotiations with anyone - the EU or other prospective trade partners - would likely take years while the UK's bargaining position and economy progressively weakened.

The only hopeful signs recently are the efforts by backbenchers from both the main parties and others to sidestep their leadership and reach across the aisles to seek agreement, though it's probably too little, too late now - which is the major recurrent theme of this whole sorry exercise.

And this is just the general agreement in principle phase. If the UK doesn't just crash out of the EU at the end of March, we have the nitty-gritty detailed negotiations to look forward to!

[T_i_B]

14. Vanity is clearly exacerbating this mess

Neither the Conservatives or Labour have any solutions, but both have gone so far down this path that to change course would involve a major loss of face for both Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn. In spite of the reality of the situation, which both main parties have done their best to ignore for so long.