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Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:47 AM

Inside the Democrats' New Plan to Flip Texas

Biden will win the major cities and suburbs. If Biden can cut his losses in rural Texas, Biden can flip Texas



For years, Democratic orthodoxy has maintained that flipping Texas Democratic in statewide races—this year for presidential candidate Joe Biden and Senate candidate MJ Hegar, most prominentaly—means increasing turnout in urban areas and swing suburbs. But that strategy alone hasn’t worked yet—even as favorable demographic changes, especially in urban areas, suburbs, and now even exurbs, have put the state in play. Now, people like Horick and Logan are part of an effort by Democrats to broaden their strategy by targeting the most Republican areas of the state as well. If they can boost Democratic support in places like Odessa just slightly, then, together with the unprecedented early vote surge in cities, Democrats think they might finally get enough votes to flip the state. It’s not about winning in these deep-red counties and districts—it’s about cutting into Republican margins, no matter how large.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton received just 28 percent of Ector’s vote. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke did slightly better, earning just over 30 percent. Horick’s goal this year is for Democratic statewide candidates to receive 35 percent of the vote in the county. She and other local organizers largely hope to do this by increasing turnout in Hispanic communities, as well as by convincing O’Rourke voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2016 to vote Democratic again. On the map on the wall, precincts colored in blue marked Hispanic neighborhoods estimated to be heavily Democratic. While only 35 percent of people voted in those precincts in 2018, Horick is hoping to push that number closer to 50 this cycle. Red stripes marked areas where voters cast ballots for Trump, in 2016, and then Beto O’Rourke.

That Saturday, wearing masks and walking at distance with others, Horick had kicked off in-person canvassing, leaving door hangers in blue neighborhoods. By the end of the weekend in Odessa, Horick and other volunteers would hand out over 2,000 voter registration cards. Meanwhile, around West Texas, other Democratic county chairs were beginning to organize in-person as well—some independently and others in coordination with the state party, which, unlike in previous election cycles, is finally running ads in rural areas and sending more organizers there as well. For many in rural Texas, it’s the first time they’ve seen this level of coordination run through the state party between local, state, and national races. That week, Logan and Horick had driven to Austin to pick up door hangers from the party. They would have liked to get them earlier and without the drive, they told me, but were happy to have the supply in the first place.


This is the DU member formerly known as Gothmog.

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Reply Inside the Democrats' New Plan to Flip Texas (Original post)
Gothmog Oct 2020 OP
nycbos Oct 2020 #1
Iliyah Oct 2020 #2
Gothmog Oct 2020 #3

Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:53 AM

1. Indeed we should absolutely reach out to rural voters.

If we lose an area 65-35 instead of 75-25 we win

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:57 AM

2. If COVID-19 infection rate is high in the rural areas of many of the swing states .....

wherein t-rump scared his cult not to vote by mail wouldn't the turn out be not as high for in person voting?

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 11:34 AM

3. Texas could hit 12 million total votes

Michael Li used to have the best election law/redistricting blog in Texas but was hired by the Bennan Center. Michael makes the case for 12 million possible votes in Texas which means that no one has any idea what is going to happen







This is the DU member formerly known as Gothmog.

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