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Mon Jul 28, 2014, 12:23 PM

Latest YouGov poll: Abbott 54 Davis 37

Before the TexTrib has their story up, you can look at the poll tabs.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/171TRD7t1gdxkpUv7JVgbQDwAYKLPH8w1VmdzVGeRlgc/edit#gid=1134636330

DK says the poll is crap, which we knew already.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/28/1317192/-YouGov-finds-rosy-picture-for-GOP-in-Senate-and-governor-races-but-the-data-merit-scrutiny?detail=hide

Alameel trails Cornyn 51-35, and generic D Congressional candidate is behind the R 50-31.

7% of respondents in these results say they are NOT voting. Not sure and other make up the remaining small percentages to total 100. There were no third parties or candidates named in the polls.

The spin is going to be the same as it ever was.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/tx/texas_governor_abbott_vs_davis-3596.html

6 replies, 1730 views

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Arrow 6 replies Author Time Post
Reply Latest YouGov poll: Abbott 54 Davis 37 (Original post)
PDittie Jul 2014 OP
Gothmog Jul 2014 #1
betterdemsonly Jul 2014 #2
yeoman6987 Jul 2014 #3
Rstrstx Jul 2014 #4
malokvale77 Aug 2014 #5
DhhD Aug 2014 #6

Response to PDittie (Original post)

Mon Jul 28, 2014, 01:21 PM

1. This does not look like a good poll

I am not sure we know how to poll Texas right now

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Response to PDittie (Original post)

Mon Jul 28, 2014, 02:17 PM

2. It has Brownback ahead by almost 13 points

 

all other polls show him down by 8. The big bias of the internet is white boy libertarianism and it really shows in yougov polls.

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Response to PDittie (Original post)

Mon Jul 28, 2014, 03:26 PM

3. Wow

 

Propaganda at it's finest. However, Wendy should just take the poll numbers and work harder to ensure she wins.

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Response to PDittie (Original post)

Mon Jul 28, 2014, 04:02 PM

4. Looking at the numbers

Last edited Mon Jul 28, 2014, 04:44 PM - Edit history (1)

A quick glance looks reasonable until you start seeing a few red flags. The % of undecideds is extremely low, though they did have categories for "lean" towards one candidate vs another. That I don't have too much of a problem with.

The biggest problem I see is the racial/ethnic makeup; in their poll about 80% of those sampled were non-Hispanic whites, a very high number for a minority-majority state. Looking at data from the exit polls in 2008 (the last time exit polling was done in the state to my knowledge) the turnout was 63% White non-Hispanic, and I don't think the population of the state has gotten whiter since '08. Abbott polls reasonably well among Hispanics but still loses them (46-38), but I'm surprised he gets 21% of the Black vote. Also only 9% of those polled were under 30, a bit low (Davis wins the under 30 crowd 48-34, with 16% saying they won't vote - unfortunately that I can believe).

It's also depressing to see the number of Republicans at least as big as the number of Democrats and Independents combined, but I suppose when 80% polled were white I guess that's not too much of a surprise.

EDIT: I read the cross-tabs wrong, the number of R's vs D's vs I's is much closer, it's the number of conservatives that equal or outweigh the number of moderates + liberals together. And running the numbers through the turnout rates from '08 only moves the results in the poll by a couple of points, like a 14 point difference, which is closer to the 12 point margins we've been seeing but still nowhere near enough to make the race competitive. Something will have to change to move the trajectory substantially.

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Response to PDittie (Original post)

Sat Aug 2, 2014, 10:02 PM

5. I would say...

Texans deserve what they get --- but most people I know deserve far better.

Hell, I'm only one vote. I can't fix Texas.

I'm not even allowed to suggest it is broken.

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Response to malokvale77 (Reply #5)

Sun Aug 3, 2014, 12:06 PM

6. Only the voters can, fix Texas. It has been broken by secessionists that have refused to surrender

to the representation of the best interest of Texans; only thinking of themselves like Carpetbaggers, from the nation of Greed. Prime example: the election, by a few, of Canadian, Teddy Tea Cruz, who has on multiple occasions stopped the Government of the United States and boldly talks about bringing the US government down, federal department by federal department. Rick Perry was elected over and over again. The ignorance and/or apathy is astounding.

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