It's the most interesting in the state, and I think it will be difficult (but not impossible) for Leticia to win, certainly better than Wendy's chances.
Pros for Patrick:
1) He's the Republican candidate. This is, far and away, his biggest advantage.
2) It's a non-presidential voting year. This is kind of related to 1, but slightly different. In 2014 TX this advantage has to go to the Rs and their especially high turnout rate between presidential elections.
3) He's the anti-Obama, which is an advantage for several reasons, the saddest of which is simply that he's a white male.
4) He may not have to debate.
Cons for Patrick:
1) He's a nutjob with a well known record of where he stands, with plenty of audio clips to go along with it. PACs will have a field day should the powers that be decide he's dangerous. Cruz slid in under the radar without having to say much, and as Lloyd would say, Patrick is no Ted Cruz.
2) His support among the establishment tea-and-cucumber sandwich old school Rs will likely be low. Wouldn't be surprised if a few even in the party even try to undermine his campaign behind the scenes (cough, Dewhurst, cough). It would cynically make sense for them if he lost as it would give them an "I told you so" reason to the Repub base to quit voting for the looniest candidate possible.
3) He'll have to put together some sort of campaign for a general election if a real war is waged against him, where he may be caught having to backtrack and flip-flop on a number of things he's said before.
Pros for Leticia:
1) She's running against Dan Patrick and not Greg Abbott.
2) She's an aggressive politician who knows how to play hardball TX politics.
3) She's the smarter of the two candidates by a mile (though am not sure this may be an advantage here, in TX ruthlessness counts more than intelligence). If there's a debate though she'll run rings around him with both on the same floor together.
4) She's an Hispanic woman. Check and check, even in TX.
5) She's our best opportunity since Ann Richards to make inroads with the so-called soccer moms, a substantial part of the electorate that has gone R for years and a key demographic to winning.
Cons for Leticia:
1) She's a Democrat. Again by far the biggest knock against her in 2014.
2) See 2 and 3 under Dan Patrick's pros.
3) Dems may not put much effort in the race, which would be crucial to her winning. PACs may have to come in and save the day if she's to have a chance.
Unknowns:
How much of a fool will Dan Patrick make of himself?
(Related to above) How much will the R establishment support him? Their base controls general elections but without establishment support (and lots of money and good advisors to shut him up) he may be a continual gaffe machine.
Will there be a debate? (forget any plurals)
Can the mid-term advantage Rs usually have be undercut by Leticia's unique position as both an Hispanic and a woman?
How badly do the Dems want to win this one?
Will we see the first signs in the inevitable crack underlying the Republicans' problem with their shrinking base? If the race is even close it may embolden Dems to put more effort into the state. The divide between old and new TX will be on full display here, how long can TX go on defying the laws of demographics? (my guess - as long as they're not funded).
In short, I unfortunately have to give Patrick the edge at this point mostly because he has an "R" next to his name and the winning streak of the opposite team is depressingly impressive. But there are so many unknowns with this unique race things could change on a dime.
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