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Thu Sep 3, 2020, 01:10 AM

Biden-Trump race in Pa. tightening, new poll shows

The presidential race appears to be tightening in Pennsylvania, a new poll indicates.

The new Monmouth University poll released Wednesday shows Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 4 percentage points. The poll finds 49% of registered voters favor Biden, the Democratic nominee and former vice president, while 45% support the Republican president.

But the poll also breaks down results between those who are considered likely voters and finds an even smaller gap, which varies based on turnout. With high turnout, the poll finds Biden with a 3-point edge over Trump (49%-46%) among likely voters, while with a lower turnout, the poll finds Biden with a 1-point lead (48%-47%).

<snip>

The Monmouth poll surveyed 400 registered voters between Aug. 28-31, so the survey began the day after the Republican National Convention ended. The survey has a margin of error of 4.9%.

The Monmouth poll isnít the only survey in recent weeks suggesting a close contest in the Keystone State. The RealClearPolitics average of polls in Pennsylvania shows Biden with a lead of 4.2 points.

A CNBC/Change Research poll last week showed Biden with a 3-point lead. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll in August showed Biden with a 4-point edge. Both surveys were within or near the margin of error.

A Franklin & Marshall College poll last week showed Biden leading by 7 percentage points, but that survey also had a margin of error of 5.2%.



https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/09/biden-trump-race-in-pa-tightening-new-poll-shows.html

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Reply Biden-Trump race in Pa. tightening, new poll shows (Original post)
modrepub Sep 3 OP
Thekaspervote Sep 3 #1
PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 3 #2
OrlandoDem2 Sep 3 #3
MFM008 Sep 3 #4
John1956PA Sep 3 #5
Midnight Writer Sep 3 #6

Response to modrepub (Original post)

Thu Sep 3, 2020, 02:43 AM

1. Another opinion from not just one poll but an aggregate of all the polls

Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is likely to beat Donald Trump in Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania 20 electoral votes Chance of winning
the most votes Predicted popular
vote share
Joe Biden
Democrat
around 4 in 5
or 80%
47-58%
Donald Trump
Republican
around 1 in 5
or 20%

More at the link
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/pennsylvania

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Response to modrepub (Original post)

Thu Sep 3, 2020, 03:27 AM

2. How in God's good name could 45% of the voters in

the great state of Pennsylvania be planning to vote for Trump? Are they all that delusional? Has their water been contaminated with something? Have they been paid off in some way? Do they not know anyone whose job has been lost because of this pandemic? Are none of them on Social Security which Trump hopes to totally defund?

Oh, dear lord.

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Response to modrepub (Original post)

Thu Sep 3, 2020, 04:34 AM

3. We lost PA in 2016 because Philly didn't GOTV. Philly needs to vote in record numbers!!

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Response to modrepub (Original post)

Thu Sep 3, 2020, 04:40 AM

4. Anybody

Wanna dwell on any good news?

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Response to modrepub (Original post)

Thu Sep 3, 2020, 07:57 AM

5. As they say, " Guns, God, Gays." I am dismayed by some political currents here in rural PA.

Last edited Thu Sep 3, 2020, 11:31 AM - Edit history (1)


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Response to modrepub (Original post)

Thu Sep 3, 2020, 12:38 PM

6. I remember KelleyAnne's remarks about Pennsylvania in 2016.

She said as soon as she saw Hillary Clinton hug Jay-Z on stage, she knew that Trump had just won Pennsylvania.

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