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Mon Jun 24, 2019, 05:27 AM

Pennsylvania is critical in 2020. Here's how Trump could win or lose it.

Itís simple: In any assessment of the 2020 presidential race, Pennsylvania is critical.

Itís a swing state with 20 electoral votes, tied for fifth most, and, with Michigan and Wisconsin, was one of three traditionally blue states that tipped the 2016 election to President Donald Trump.

The presidentís campaign, the main Super PAC backing him, and top Democratic groups have all targeted the Keystone State as one of the most important on the map ó a vital piece of the ďBlue WallĒ that Trump fractured, and that could prove decisive.

So, fresh off Trumpís official reelection announcement Tuesday, what does he need to do to win Pennsylvania again? Thatís more complicated.

Read more: https://www.inquirer.com/news/trump-win-lose-pennsylvania-presidential-election-2020-swing-state-battleground-politics-biden-20190620.html

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Reply Pennsylvania is critical in 2020. Here's how Trump could win or lose it. (Original post)
TexasTowelie Jun 2019 OP
DeminPennswoods Jun 2019 #1
Freddie Jun 2019 #2
DeminPennswoods Jun 2019 #3
PRETZEL Jun 2019 #4
modrepub Jun 2019 #5
DeminPennswoods Jun 2019 #6

Response to TexasTowelie (Original post)

Mon Jun 24, 2019, 06:09 AM

1. Pundits and the "horse race" narrative

Trump's win here in 2016 was a complete fluke enabled by decades of Clinton-bashing and her campaign's decision not to campaign much here. There were enough voters who simply did not like Clinton and didn't vote for her. Interestingly, she got fewer votes than Josh Shapiro, the Dem who ran for atty general and won. If she merely had gotten the same the number of votes he did in about 10 counties, she'd have won. What this says is voters were not opposed to electing Dems and liberals since Dems swept all statewide offices and made gains in the state courts.

Things were even worse for Rs in 2018. Not only did the state supreme court toss their gerry-mandered congressional map, they lost 4 seats (13-5 Rs to 9-9) in Congress, they lost 6 seats in gerry-mandered state senate districts and their super majority, they lost a net 11 seats in the heavily gerry-mandered state house. The two Trump clones, Wagner (gov) and Barletta (US senate) who ran statewide got thumped by 17 and 13 points respectively.

If the Dem candidate needs advice, I'd suggest looking to Gov Wolf and LtGov Fetterman. Wolf is supporting policies Pennsylvanians like and he is able to work productively with the R-controlled state legislature on these issues. He's not afraid to veto bills and Rs don't have the votes to override a veto.

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Response to DeminPennswoods (Reply #1)

Mon Jun 24, 2019, 06:22 AM

2. Agree that 2016 won't happen again here

Another issue is lack of minority support for HRC compared to Obama. Usually the big cities outvote the Alabama part of the state and that didnít happen then, but it will again.

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Response to Freddie (Reply #2)

Mon Jun 24, 2019, 06:32 AM

3. People seem to have a lot of trouble accepting

that Clinton was not liked by a lot of people. She's not a gifted, natural politician like her husband. If she had done some small group gatherings outside the big cities, I think she'd have won people over as she appears much more comfortable in those settings.

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Response to DeminPennswoods (Reply #3)

Mon Jun 24, 2019, 08:46 AM

4. I think that's a great point, nt

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Response to DeminPennswoods (Reply #1)

Mon Jun 24, 2019, 03:24 PM

5. Totally Agree to Some Extent

Probably explains why Toomey beat McGinty; same deal she's just like Hillary. The real loss in 2016 was up in the Scranton area. Maybe a push by Biden with Hillary would have brought some more votes in 2016.

The number of Democratic candidate votes in the suburban counties outside Philly was ABSOLUTELY SHOCKING! Chester County sending a Dem to Congress should set off every fire alarm in a Republican's election campaign. If Trump does as poorly in the counties bordering Philadelphia County as the last Congressional and Gubernatorial election then he's toast. Those border counties are long-time old money Republican strongholds. I don't think they like the emphasis on social issues (abortion) that many other Republican dominated counties in Pennsylvania do.

You want to know who's going to win in PA in 2020? Then look in two areas. Are Dems in the Scranton area defecting to Trump? Are the Philadelphia border counties strongly supporting Trump? If both answers are no then the Democratic candidate caries the state IMHO.

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Response to modrepub (Reply #5)

Mon Jun 24, 2019, 05:31 PM

6. Philadelphia county needs to turnout as well

I saw a chart where turnout in Philadelphia was lower for the first time in years in 2016 than previous presidential election years. If Philadelphia turns out at the same rate as the rest of the state, Dems win comfortably.

Something else happened in the mid-terms, too. Gov Wolf won Beaver County which is full of the Trump voter demographic and votes that way. When looking over the individual voting precincts, I was very surprised at the number of votes Wolf got in Republican areas. I think it's because Wolf governs in a no nonsense way, supports policies that generally help "regular folks" and finds ways to work with the GOP controlled state legislature to get these policies passed. Tells me that voters don't "hate" government, but they want gov't to work effectively, efficiently and in their interests.

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