Montana House race contrast: Navy SEAL vs longtime educator

[BlueMTexpat]

http://www.fairfieldcitizenonline.com/news/article/Montana-House-race-contrast-Navy-SEAL-vs-Indian-10415199.php

BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — A decorated combat veteran warning about the threat of ISIS in America is being challenged for his U.S. House seat by a longtime educator who would become the first American Indian woman in Congress.

The race between Republican Ryan Zinke and Democrat Denise Juneau for Montana's only House seat reflects a broader divide playing out nationwide between Republicans focusing on foreign threats and Democrats honing in on domestic issues from education to the economy.
...
Zinke, who was born in Bozeman and grew up in Whitefish, points to recent attacks in malls in Minnesota and Washington state as evidence the threat is real. He attributed his assertion that ISIS is present in all U.S. states to FBI Director James Comey, who said last year the agency was investigating people in various stages of radicalizing in all 50 states.

Montana has received no Syrian refugees, prompting Democrats to accuse Zinke and other state Republicans of employing anti-refugee rhetoric to scare residents and win their votes.

Juneau's backstory could hardly differ more from her opponent. A member of the Mandan Hidatsa tribes, she grew up on Montana's Blackfeet Indian Reservation, received a master's degree in education from Harvard University and a law degree from the University of Montana.

Go Denise!! https://denisejuneau.com/

[beachbumbob]

1. Any polling on this race?

[Delmette]

3. It's close with Zinke ahead.

I have heard he is ahead by 2%.

[BlueMTexpat]

7. Denise has been closing the

gap and it will be a close race. An appearance by Hillary could make a real difference. OK, I know that MT doesn't have a LOT of electoral vote clout. But a House seat win is still a House seat win and this one IS winnable!

[Grey Lemercier]

2. he is up pretty big...almost 20 points

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/house/mt/montana_atlarge_district_zinke_vs_juneau-6050.html

It's Montana after all.....

[BlueMTexpat]

8. I am a Montanan by birth and

lived there for >30 years of my 70+ life. I still have many family members, friends and former colleagues there. In fact, two MT visitors were here with me in Switzerland last week, after spending a week in France and then moving on to Italy before their return to the US today.

Percentage-wise, Montanans are much more cosmopolitan - and politically astute - than one might otherwise think. We are a purple state for the most part. Not all of our GOPers are insane and there are several this year who simply will not support Trump.

2016 could be a game-changer for MT. At least, I very much hope so insofar as Denise's race is concerned.

I also hope that Governor Bullock (D) is re-elected. The alternative is NOT a good one.

[Grey Lemercier]

9. Thanks for the detailed reply. What are your thoughts on Tester

in 2018? Can he hold on?

[BlueMTexpat]

13. Tester should be OK because he

is a Montanan by birth, generally well-liked, and has the background to understand well the mind-set of those in eastern MT, who are among the most conservative. He has also successfully managed to champion issues of importance to Montanans. But it is true that his last two races have both been close ones.

If MT stays blue with Bullock as Governor and if - by some minor miracle - Denise wins her race, I believe that much of the same grassroots support will turn out for Tester in 2018. Tester has been campaigning with and for both. Recent ratings have also shown his approval rate to be much higher than his disapproval rate (46% to 34%).

If Hillary wins in 2016 - as I fervently believe will be the case - I believe that ALL Dems will find fresh reason to support down-ticket Dems, even in non-Presidential election years.

[Delmette]

4. Any idea why a newspaper in Connecticut

Would run an article about a Montana House race that doesn't seem to get attention with a National Democratic Committee.

[BlueMTexpat]

6. No idea - other perhaps than

that there is also a Fairfield, MT and the newspaper in Fairfield, CT feels some kinship.

[Delmette]

12. I know about Fairfield Mt.

I grew up there, that is why the article caught my attention.

[BlueMTexpat]

14. Some of my cousins still live there,

along with a very special aunt.

My sister and I stopped by there in March for a brief visit with them!

[Grey Lemercier]

10. Maybe because she would be the first Native American woman ever in Congress?

[BlueMTexpat]

15. From your post to the

eyes and ears of TPTB!

[Ford_Prefect]

5. The DNC did its calculations too early and didn't originally commit to 50 states.

They assumed they wouldn't have enough of a chance to gain in the House. So even though they raised more money than expected they wrote off Montana and a number of other GOP leaning states which has affected the down ticket races. They really do not pay enough attention to the idea that every seat needs to be contested if you are going to have congressional wins in the off year elections too. My Family lives there and it is frustrating to see the national ticket ignore the importance to Montana Democrats of national party support. Since Montana has such a small population it only rates one member in the House. That single position has huge influence within the state and supports the continuing (thus far) dominance of GOP power in the region.

I met Denise years ago when she was running for the state legislature. You could not ask for a better or more obvious candidate for the DNC or Hillary to vigorously support.

[Delmette]

11. Montana has sent some intelligent, compassionate people to Congress.

Janette Rankin ( twice)...Mike Mansfield. I get ticked off when we are ignored like most small population states. Thanks for your comments.