Fri Oct 12, 2018, 05:48 AM

2018 FL voter projection model - Day 1

Last edited Fri Oct 12, 2018, 06:29 AM - Edit history (1)

We are a little behind. It’s early but we must catch up in the projections. If you vote by mail send your ballot back ASAP!

https://thefloridasqueeze.com

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2 replies	Author	Time	Post
2018 FL voter projection model - Day 1 (Original post)	OrlandoDem2	Oct 2018	OP
When the guy concedes he completely changed his forecasting methods at a late stage	Awsi Dooger	Oct 2018	#1
Thank you! I'm paranoid that people will stay home like in 2016!	OrlandoDem2	Oct 2018	#2

Response to OrlandoDem2 (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2018, 01:08 AM

Awsi Dooger (14,565 posts)

1. When the guy concedes he completely changed his forecasting methods at a late stage

I tend to pay very little attention to his current conclusions. The best handicappers/analysts I know found a logical reliable approach very early and have remained true to it, with minor adjustments.

I agree with Nate Silver that early voting numbers have a weak relationship to the final outcome, and very little predictive insight:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

2018 FL voter projection model - Day 1

1. When the guy concedes he completely changed his forecasting methods at a late stage

2. Thank you! I'm paranoid that people will stay home like in 2016!