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Fri Oct 12, 2018, 05:48 AM

2018 FL voter projection model - Day 1

Last edited Fri Oct 12, 2018, 06:29 AM - Edit history (1)

We are a little behind. Itís early but we must catch up in the projections. If you vote by mail send your ballot back ASAP!

https://thefloridasqueeze.com

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Reply 2018 FL voter projection model - Day 1 (Original post)
OrlandoDem2 Oct 2018 OP
Awsi Dooger Oct 2018 #1
OrlandoDem2 Oct 2018 #2

Response to OrlandoDem2 (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2018, 01:08 AM

1. When the guy concedes he completely changed his forecasting methods at a late stage

 

I tend to pay very little attention to his current conclusions. The best handicappers/analysts I know found a logical reliable approach very early and have remained true to it, with minor adjustments.

I agree with Nate Silver that early voting numbers have a weak relationship to the final outcome, and very little predictive insight:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 13, 2018, 06:22 AM

2. Thank you! I'm paranoid that people will stay home like in 2016!

Itís all about the actual vote!

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