Oil Holds Gains Above $74 as Supply Drops Eclipse Saudi Boost
(Bloomberg) -- Oil held near three-year highs on U.S. Independence Day as tight supplies at home and abroad overshadow a Saudi pledge to boost output.
Futures gained 0.3 percent in New York, extending crudes 15 percent rally since early June. The American Petroleum Institute was said to report that U.S. inventories dropped by 4.51 million barrels last week, and a Bloomberg survey also estimates a decline. Meanwhile, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih reiterated that OPEC and its allies will boost output by 1 million barrels a day, which may not suffice to cover shortfalls elsewhere.
Even if Saudi Arabia does provide much of the oil to replace any shortcomings from Iran or Libya or Venezuela, that has the market concerned that we will be hitting fairly low levels of spare capacity, said Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto. If anything happens in addition, it might be fairly difficult to supply the market.
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While U.S. President Donald Trump continued to push Saudi Arabia to pump more than it pledged and reduce petroleum prices for consumers, Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude forecast to $85 a barrel next year.
Bulls are regaining control, said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London. It looks as though any additional supply increase from Gulf producers and Russia will not be able to replace lost barrels from Libya, Iran and Venezuela.
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