Nate Silver TAKES A SHOT At Politico

[Segami]

New York Times polling guru Nate Silver took aim at Politico’s brand of reporting on Friday, saying the Washington-based news outlet covers politics like sports but “not in an intelligent way at all.”

Reflecting on Politico’s pre-election criticism of his FiveThirtyEight model, Silver told Grantland’s Bill Simmons on his “B.S. Report” podcast:

What was remarkable to me is that you had some, like, journalist for, um, Politico, or something … who, like, tweeted … ‘All Nate’s doing is averaging polls and counting electoral votes?’ … ‘That’s the secret sauce?’ It’s like, well, yeah, and the fact that you can’t comprehend that very basic thing … that says more about you than, than about me, right?”

The tweet Silver is referring to came from Politico’s Jonathan Martin, and actually reads: “Avert your gaze, liberals: Nate Silver admits he’s simply averaging public polls and there is no secret sauce.” Martin linked to a piece by his Politico colleague Dylan Byers, who wrote the definitive piece of Silver skepticism during the 2012 cycle. In the piece — headlined “Nate Silver: One-term celebrity?” — Byers considered the possibility of Silver’s star power dimming if Mitt Romney became president.



“Prediction is the name of Silver’s game, the basis for his celebrity,” Byers wrote in late October. “So should Mitt Romney win on Nov. 6, it’s difficult to see how people can continue to put faith in the predictions of someone who has never given that candidate anything higher than a 41 percent chance of winning (way back on June 2) and — one week from the election — gives him a one-in-four chance, even as the polls have him almost neck-and-neck with the incumbent.”






cont'

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/nate-silver-politico.php?ref=fpb


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[heaven05]

1. you

go Nate! Spank em. I sensed a little jealousy there at your numerical facts and their reliance on the 'neck and neck' polls. Who won!!!???? YOU THE MAN!!!!!

[SemperEadem]

2. that's the thing about that kool-aid byers was drinking

it lulls you into a stupor, believing ego-driven lies and the hangover is a muthafucka... that bubble burst and reality was awaiting you right outside of it, ready to jump all on your head.

mittiot was never neck and neck with Obama. You all told yourselves that because you so desperately needed to believe the lie that America could never re-elect President Obama because that's what your paymasters at fux noose and the rnc wanted you to believe.

just because it wasn't your reality didn't mean it wasn't a reality to everyone else.

[Bette Noir]

3. What "neck and neck"?

The only polls that had Romney even close to O were Rasmussen and Gallup, which were clearly biased. The 9% chance Nate gave Romney of winning at the end was based on the off chance that Rasmussen and Gallup were right. There were not.

[spooky3]

4. Politico, Chris Cillizza, et al., had a fundamental lack of understanding of the electoral college

Mittens had big leads in Southern states, so that in the national polls, he appeared to be "neck-and-neck" with Obama. But being ahead 60-40% in a state with 15 electoral votes, for example, doesn't offset being behind 50.5-49.5% in several others with a total of 40 electoral votes.

[SoapBox]

5. Bravo Nate!

...when Politico was being formed, all it took was a glimpse of WHO was heading there...the usual "news reporters" (aka: News FAKERS) that make their not-so-subtle push for the Puke and Bagger Party.

SO, whenever I see, "from Politico"...I just stop watching.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Mitt's Pollsters were unable to measure the 47%!

OR GOP Pollsters knew all along that Mitt was trailing and tried
a confidence game on the public. Make it look inevitable and it
becomes inevitable. Didn't work!

Those polls showing Mitt winning didn't measure low income,
minority, young households adequately.

To the GOP, they don't exist!

So they measured traditional land line, cell phone households.
The Cleavers.

Mitt got Lumpied!

[Apache Crew Chief 65]

7. Greed

Greed has always been the hallmark, the treasure at the end of the rainbow, the brass ring, the ultimate big kahuna for the Republican Party let me say it again GREED. The Democratic Party cannot stand on a pedestal because apparently greed is contagious and our leaders are addicted to their lobbyists and forgot all about the American voter.

Controlling the mainstream media with wedge issues and cherry picking news and then spoon feeding it to Americans has been the success provided by the 1%. The current Caesar's, Rubber barons, oil and gas tycoons, military-industrial complex Mafia experts in deception with mine hypnosis capable of milking Americans of our national treasure coming home in flag draped coffins since 9/11. Terrorists who attacked us with box cutters who have headquarters in caves have somehow multiplied the production of opium. Generals consumed with sex goddesses breathlessly await correspondence of over 20 to 30,000 e-mails and we are assured by these generals that they have plans to continue the war passed 2014.

My Christmas wish is that the American voter realizes the importance of disarming the mainstream medias and pundits and polls control by the 1% who has Americans divided as the 1% harnesses its investments generated by the lobbyists.