What Putin wants, and how he plans to get it

[bemildred]

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Vladimir Putin is still winning most of what he wants in Ukraine, and he's winning it more cheaply and more elegantly than he would by launching a full-scale military invasion.

Last week's agreement, which called on pro-Russia militias to end their occupation of government buildings, was probably only a speed bump on the way toward bringing all of Ukraine under Moscow's influence.

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He's on track toward that goal. The United States and its European allies can still push back through long and patient support for the government in Kiev and a costly effort to rescue Ukraine's staggering economy. But it's an asymmetrical contest. Putin's interest in Ukraine is immediate and visceral; the outcome is central to his agenda as president. For Obama and other Western leaders, Ukraine is important but peripheral.

"There is a battle for Ukraine, but it's not going to be on a military battlefield," Hill told me. "It's going to be a game of wits. The question is: Can we outsmart Putin?"

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-mcmanus-column-ukraine-putin-20140420,0,1372825.column

[Benton D Struckcheon]

1. I figured this was how he would do it,

and really, no one reasonable would deny him his interest in a vast & fertile neighboring country. If it's what he wants and is willing to have it via peaceful means, no problem.
Invasion is something else again. He must also realize that actual invasion would saddle him with a vast and permanent guerrilla war, a headache far bigger than Chechnya.

[bemildred]

2. I thought he might take more, after Crimea, now I'm pretty sure he won't.

Unless we hand it to him.

I don't always agree with Doyle, but I think he has it right here.

Our FP wonks need to understand what he means when he says "But we believe this decision to be mistaken.", he means it will lose, he will win against it, not that it's false.

And Doyle is right about the approach to dealing with it, we need to support the government and Ukrainian people with money and material, we need to make their economy hum with good jobs. That will win the argument with Putin.

[BlueMTexpat]

3. Frankly, if we would make our OWN economy hum with good

jobs and quit meddling generally, the Ukraine - and a LOT of other countries - might start gravitating (or re-gravitating) naturally to what they see is in their own best interest. We are hardly a role model for the world to emulate - as once seemed to be the case.

Right now, the Ukrainian people are caught between (at least) two sets of oligarchs in a lose-lose-situation. Do you really think that money the West sends will actually reach the people it is intended to help? Possibly a pittance will.

But it will more likely establish so-called "Western-leaning" oligarchs more firmly and continue to exacerbate tensions in the area generally.

It is not that I side with Putin or against your POV, it is that this crisis in Ukraine was manufactured generally by RWers and our M$M filters it primarily through RW viewpoints. Can anyone seriously believe that if Mexico were showing anywhere near the same instability after the takeover of a legitimately-elected (insofar as any election is legitimate any more) government, that we would not have troops massed along our own southern border - and not necessarily to take Mexico over?

We would very likely be using the same excuses for massing troops as Putin is. And the US and Mexico do not have anywhere near the same kind of historical relationship, i.e., having been part of one country - even though it is true that Spain once held great swathes of territory in our own Southwest.

[bemildred]

5. Well yeah.

Last edited Thu Apr 24, 2014, 07:13 AM - Edit history (1)

The Russians are OBVIOUSLY enjoying parroting our own talking points back at us, one by one.

Part of why our government is so hysterical is because they have been so exposed. As with Snowden.

And that does not in any way mean I support Putin. Just because you are the bad guy, that doesn't mean you lose. And vice-versa. Supposedly, what we hire these foreign policy and military guys to do is outfox guys like Putin. You know all that military and cop bullshit on TV? But they thought they didn't have to be smart, like we can still push people around. And Putin has exposed them for fools. So they are mad.

But our problems are ideological, out government is fed like hogs on money and ideology, and hence it cannot goverrn well, it is incompetent.

[dipsydoodle]

4. Putin playing the long game over Russian kin in Ukraine

(Reuters) - Russia's decision last week to sign a peace accord on Ukraine does not mean that the Kremlin is backing down, rather that President Vladimir Putin is prepared to be patient in pursuit of his ultimate objective.

That aim, his own reflections and those of people close to his way of thinking seem to indicate, is one day to re-unite Russian speaking peoples, including those living within the borders of Ukraine, within one common home.

As a skilled tactician, Putin knows that to push too fast to achieve this ambition could be damaging for Russia - as demonstrated by the Western threat of tough sanctions and Europe's rush to wean itself off Russian gas supplies.

Signing the four-way agreement on Ukraine in Geneva last week, and thereby showing the West that it was willing to compromise, made tactical sense for Russia.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/04/21/uk-ukraine-crisis-kremlin-idINKBN0D706C20140421

[bemildred]

6. +1. nt

[magical thyme]

7. Since Putin had suggested a 3 or 4 way agreement back in November

when the EU gave the Ukraine an ultimatum, it seems like Putin is "backing down" to his original proposal.

[bemildred]

9. Except he got Crimea, but otherwise, that is right. nt

[Jefferson23]

8. Moldova is concerned about Putin and as I understand it, Freedom House has recently

received a substantial amount of funds to help assist journalists and initiate programs for them
supplied by Norway.

The prick ( Vlad ) has many on edge.

[bemildred]

10. Yep. nt