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Tue Oct 2, 2012, 12:19 PM

The US presidential election is no contest

If the models are robust, and their predictions strongly in favour of Obama, why are we being told that the race is a dead heat? I think it is partly a cultural issue. Earlier this year I wrote a story about election forecasting for a British publication. The science editor liked it, but a colleague on the politics desk vetoed the piece, in part because he simply didn't believe the forecasts. I can see why. The hurly-burly of day-to-day politics is filled with dramatic events, like the recent leaked video of Romney talking in unvarnished terms about voters he cannot hope to win over. These events make the race feel like a roller-coaster ride.

The truth, as revealed by the science, is much more prosaic. Obama is way ahead and has been for ages. The meat and drink of daily political reporting - party conventions, gaffes, attack ads - have a limited and often passing impact. That's not to say that an unforeseen event couldn't put Romney in the White House. But it would have to be something huge, because studies of previous elections show outcomes depend far more on fundamental factors such as employment rates.

Full piece here: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528840.200-the-us-presidential-election-is-no-contest.html

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Reply The US presidential election is no contest (Original post)
Mosaic Oct 2012 OP
bemildred Oct 2012 #1
left-of-center2012 Oct 2012 #3
bemildred Oct 2012 #4
Kablooie Oct 2012 #5
bemildred Oct 2012 #6
Old Codger Oct 2012 #2

Response to Mosaic (Original post)

Tue Oct 2, 2012, 12:31 PM

1. I've been wondering for about two weeks now what will happen if Rmoney bails out.

Or is thrown out. Just to stop the hemorrhaging.

I think that is possible.

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Response to bemildred (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 2, 2012, 03:01 PM

3. Won't happen

His ego is to big for him to quit and I don't see how he could be replaced.
It'd have to be a stroke or heart attack, etc.

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Response to left-of-center2012 (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 2, 2012, 03:10 PM

4. I knew somebody would say that. nt

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Response to bemildred (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 02:55 AM

5. That would turn the country upside down.

To have a presidential candidate quit a few weeks before the election would make Romney a total pariah the rest of his life. He'd probably be driven from America and have to spend the rest of his days in Pago Pago or somewhere.

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Response to Kablooie (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 09:13 AM

6. Indeed. nt

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Response to Mosaic (Original post)

Tue Oct 2, 2012, 12:43 PM

2. MSM

 

Absolutely needs it to be close or what would they talk about?

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