White Democrats in the South: An endangered breed

[alp227]

CHARLOTTE — Congressman Larry Kissell represents a district just 20 minutes north of here, but as his fellow Democrats gathered this week to renominate their president for a second term, the hometown Democrat was notably absent.

(...)

Kissell never showed, and the reasons are not hard to fathom: He is in a fight for his political life, and he comes from a part of the country where being a Democrat has become a huge political liability.

Kissell, who has served two terms in the House, is part of a dying political breed — white Southern Democrats, many of whom are moderate “Blue Dogs” — that is being pushed out of Congress by Republican state legislatures redrawing House districts in favor of GOP candidates. Minority Democrats remain part of the landscape because more black and Latino voters are being redrawn into the same districts to move them out of GOP districts. As Republicans make their own districts more secure, in other words, they are improving the prospects of black and Latinos in predominantly Democratic districts.

“It’s possible there won’t be a single white Democratic member of Congress from Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas and maybe just one or two from North Carolina, Tennessee, possibly for the next decade,” said David Wasserman, who tracks House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “The only case under which a conservative Democrat could win in those states would be because of a scandal or a national Democratic wave.”

Once the dominant party of the South, Democrats saw their power decline with Lyndon B. Johnson’s embrace of civil rights reforms and the rise of evangelical Republicans. But even as Republicans began to win governorships and state legislatures in Southern states, voters continued electing moderate Democrats — commonly called Blue Dog Democrats — who maintained moderate fiscal and social voting records.

(...)

In an effort to appeal to their new GOP-leaning constituents, all three voted with Republicans to hold Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. in contempt and to repeal the health-care reform law. All three skipped this year’s formal convention proceedings, and they ambiguously answer questions about supporting President Obama’s reelection.

full: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-southern-democrats-a-dying-breed/2012/09/06/3e310b72-f6c0-11e1-8b93-c4f4ab1c8d13_singlePage.html

[DontTreadOnMe]

1. For every ONE lost white Dem in the South...

we GAIN ONE new black Dem AND WE GAIN ONE new latino Dem. It's a losing statistic for the Republicans.

And the TWO MOST IMPORTANT States in the South, Florida and Texas, have been gaining black and latino voters more than any other states... mainly because black and latino population is growing faster than whites.

If the Repugs lose Texas.. it's over for 30 years...

[efhmc]

2. Not if, when. It will happen.

[dsc]

4. that isn't remotely close to true

In 2009 we had a delegation split 8 to 5 in our favor. We had 6 white dems, 2 black dems, and 5 white republicans. This was in a state that Obama carried by less than 1 percent. In 2011, our delegation was 7 to 6 in our favor, with 5 white dems, 2 black dems, and 6 white republicans. In 2013, even if Obama wins here, the very best we are looking at is 5 to 8 in the GOP favor. 3 white dems, 2 black dems, 8 white republicans. It could wind up being 3 dem 10 gop. The fact is our black districts just became blacker and all the liberal whites in the triangle were put into one district which will be the most liberal district outside of Manhattan.

[DontTreadOnMe]

5. Huh? I read your reply 5 times and still do not understand any point you are making

Here are the projected numbers by the US Census for the 5 largest states in the United States.

Table J. Top Five States With the Largest Population, Ranked by Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 and 2025

(In thousands. As of July 1)
_________________________________________________________________

Year ----------------non-Hispanic--------------- Hispanic
and White Black American Asian origin
rank Indian
St. Pop. St. Pop. St. Pop. St. Pop. St. Pop.
1995
1 CA 16,630 NY 2,635 OK 257 CA 3,380 CA 9,206
2 NY 12,082 TX 2,189 AZ 217 NY 825 TX 5,173
3 TX 10,891 CA 2,184 CA 189 HI 704 NY 2,541
4 PA 10,474 GA 2,004 NM 140 TX 412 FL 1,955
5 FL 10,010 FL 1,964 AK 90 NJ 357 IL 1,090
2025
1 CA 16,626 TX 3,466 OK 363 CA 8,564 CA 21,232
2 TX 12,501 GA 3,292 AZ 292 NY 1,807 TX 10,230
3 FL 12,196 FL 3,067 NM 257 HI 1,179 FL 4,944
4 NY 10,585 NY 3,065 CA 183 NJ 960 NY 4,309
5 PA 10,181 CA 2,680 WA 136 TX 911 IL 2,275


This chart maybe hard to read in a forum post, so let me summarize just Texas and Florida. Also take into account not ALL White people vote Republican. Also note that both Texas and Florida are expected to replace New York in population, and Electoral Votes.

For Texas, the white population will grow from 10 million to 12 million people. That is 2 million new voters. While the growth of Blacks will grow from 2 million to 3 million. And the huge jump of 5 million Hispanic to 10 million. RECAP. White people gain 2 million voters Texas, and Blacks & Hispanics will gain 6 million new voters.

For Florida, the white population is expected to grow from 10 million people to 12 million. While the growth of Blacks will grow from 2 million to 3 million. And the huge jump of 2 million Hispanic to 5 million. RECAP. White people gain 2 million voters in Florida, and Blacks & Hispanics will gain 4 million new voters.

So two Southern states... Blacks & Hispanics will gain 10 million new voters, and Whites will gain 4 million. More than 2 to 1 ratio is expected.

[dsc]

6. we are losing white congressmen without replacing them

In North Carolina we have 13 Congressmen both before and after the census. In 2009, our highwater mark, we had 8 dems and 5 gop. the racial split was 6 white dems, 2 black dems, 5 white gop. In 2011, the split was 7 to 6. 5 white dems, 2 black dems, 6 white gop. In 2013, best case scenario we will be 5 dem to 8 gop. It could be as bad as 3 dem to 10 gop. My best guess is we will be 4 dem with 9 gop. the fact is redistricting has created Democratic districts with about 80 percent democratic vote and gop ones with mid 50's.

[DontTreadOnMe]

7. And North Carolina will not matter if the Dems win Texas and Florida

The way the Electoral College System works... if you win the three biggest states (CA, TX, FL by 2025).. you almost win by default. And then count NY as a DEM win as well, so it will be the top 4 largest states.

And the number of gain of Hispanics in CA is gigantic. So no chance of the GOP winning CA. The Hispanics vote alone will start to determine the Presidential Election.

The GOP can do all the gerrymandering they can possibly think up, and it will still will not be able to group up isolated districts within the Hispanic vote in the 4 largest states. The smaller states will become irrelevant. Welcome to Democracy 21st Century.

Repug strategists are aware of this major problem for them. And they are trying, very unsuccessfully, to get the Hispanic vote. Because the issue gets bigger every election from now on.

[dsc]

8. that is true at the Presidental level

but with the horrible gerrymandering of districts we can win the Presidency and still lose the House. I am assuming Obama will get close to his percentage in 2008 when he won here. Under that voting pattern McCain won 10 of our districts while Obama won 3. He won the 3 districts he won by very large margins and lost the 10 he lost by a small margin.

[daybranch]

3. redistricting or gerrymandering

Here in Ohio we have the right to gather signatures and petition for an issue to be put on the ballot. We recently completed gathering enough signatures to get an state constitution amendment to establish a multiparty independent redistricting commission which if the amendment is passecd will redraw districts for the US House of Representatives so as to make them competitive and oiur congressmen and women accountable. Of course a big money PAC and the republicans are lying about this highly popular idea, telling voters we want to take awayh their constitutional rights by changing the redistricting. We beat them on Issue 2 and we will beat them again!!I wonder how many of these southern states has this right of petitioning? .

[supernova]

9. Needs an editor

"White Democratic Congressional Reps in the South: An Endangered Breed"

Most of us white Dems will always be here. And no, I don't care what color skin tint my rep has, as long as s/he supports my positions on the issues. And perhaps with the passing of this era, we can elect more progressive candidates and let the blue dogs go by the wayside.

[Tom Ripley]

10. And most of the white congressmen left in the south have become bluer-than-blue dogs

John Barrow (GA) is one very disappointing example