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Tue Sep 22, 2020, 08:18 PM

538: The Senate's Rural Skew Makes It Very Hard For Democrats To Win The Supreme Court

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senates-rural-skew-makes-it-very-hard-for-democrats-to-win-the-supreme-court/


the Senate is an enormous problem for Democrats given the current political coalitions, in which Democrats are dominant in cities while Republicans triumph in rural areas. And because the Senate is responsible for confirming Supreme Court picks, that means the Supreme Court is a huge problem for Democrats too. Sure, Democrats might win back the Senate this year ó indeed, they were slight favorites to do so before the Ginsburg news. But in the long run, theyíre likely to lose it more often than not.


Indeed, despite their current 47-53 deficit in the Senate, Democratic senators actually represent slightly more people than Republicans. If you divide the U.S. population by which party represents it in the Senate ó splitting credit 50-50 in the case of states such as Ohio that have one senator from each party ó you wind up with 167 million Americans represented by Democratic senators and 160 million by Republicans.


the Senate is effectively 6 to 7 percentage points redder than the country as a whole, which means that Democrats are likely to win it only in the event of a near-landslide in their favor nationally. Thatís likely to make the Republican majority on the Supreme Court pretty durable.

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Reply 538: The Senate's Rural Skew Makes It Very Hard For Democrats To Win The Supreme Court (Original post)
jg10003 Sep 22 OP
Thekaspervote Sep 22 #1
onecaliberal Sep 22 #4
Stargleamer Sep 22 #2
doc03 Sep 22 #6
Fiendish Thingy Sep 22 #3
NCjack Sep 22 #5
jg10003 Sep 22 #7

Response to jg10003 (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 08:21 PM

1. This is why if we win the senate, we absolutely must increase the number of justices

And make DC a state and hopefully Puerto Rico

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #1)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 08:44 PM

4. That!

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Response to jg10003 (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 08:24 PM

2. It would be more doable if Puerto Rico and Washington D.C.

Can become states. I know that even then itís still really very difficult!

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Response to Stargleamer (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 08:53 PM

6. Democrats could moderate their position on some issues and gain some purple states. Where we stand

now its a stalemate either states are red or blue. That's how Trump won he did something unions wanted for decades
tariffs. Some Democrats had brought that up before but the Republicans called it protectionism and they backed off. But Trump
ran with it and won.

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Response to jg10003 (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 08:34 PM

3. Not a problem, as long as Dems are quick and brutal in using power when they have it

SCOTUS could be quickly expanded to 15 in 2021, and if Dems lose the senate in 2022 (not a given), the GOP would be helpless to change the new 9-6 liberal majority, unless they gain control of the House (again, unlikely), and even then they could only expand the court, and Iím sure President Biden would be happy to fill any new seats they create.

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Response to jg10003 (Original post)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 08:48 PM

5. We need election reform. Every mega city gets 2 senators and 1 house member

per 250,000 residents.

If that can't be agreed to, then Blue States should insist on a Constitutional Convention to pursue a new future for USA.

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Response to NCjack (Reply #5)

Tue Sep 22, 2020, 10:35 PM

7. yes, the problem is the structure of the senate.

The senate must become more representative of the entire country if the union is to survive. Minority rule is not sustainable.

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