HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Editorials & Other Articles (Forum) » "Here Are Four Red States...

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 07:32 AM

"Here Are Four Red States Where Joe Biden Is Shockingly Competitive With Trump"

- "Here are 4 red states where Joe Biden is shockingly competitive with Trump." By Alex Henderson, July 13, 2020, AlterNet.

Recent polls have given President Donald Trumpís reelection campaign very little reason for optimism. Poll after poll has shown Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee. Biden is quite competitive in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Virginia, but the most shocking part is how well the centrist Democrat is performing in some red states that Trump decisively won in 2016. Of course, any smart Democratic strategist realizes that the last thing Biden should become is overconfident, and one should never underestimate the GOPís capacity for voter suppression ó especially when it comes to communities of color. But if recent polls are any indication, Biden has a shot at victory even in some red states.

Here are four red states where the former vice president, according to polls, is shockingly competitive.

1. Texas

Although Texas is still a red state, itís light red at this point: Texasí major urban centers lean Democratic (including Houston, Austin, Dallas and El Paso), Trump won Texas by 9% in 2016 (not quite double digits) and Democrat Beto OíRourke came within striking distance of far-right Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in the 2018 midterms. Until Democrats start winning more statewide races in Texas, it would be premature to think of it as a swing state ó let alone a blue state. But recent polls indicate that Texas is in play for Bidenís campaign. A Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler poll released on July 12 found Trump trailing Biden by 5% in the Lone Star State, and Biden was ahead of Trump in Texas by 1% in recent polls from Fox News, CBS News/YouGov and Quinnipiac University.
Obviously, 1% is well within the margin of error, but the very fact that Biden has a chance in the Lone Star State is bad news for Trumpís campaign.

2. Georgia

Georgia, like Texas, is light red but not deep red. In 2018, Democrat Stacy Abrams ran a decidedly liberal campaign yet came within striking distance of Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. And recent polls of the presidential race show that Georgia is not a state that Trump can take for granted. A recent OAN/Gravis Marketing poll found Trump leading Biden by 3% in Georgia, yet another polls have found Biden leading in that state by 2% (Fox News) or 4% (Public Policy Polling).

3. Kansas

Not since President Lyndon B. Johnsonís landslide victory over Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona in 1964 has a Democratic presidential candidate won in Kansas ó which has a reputation for being a deep red state. Democratic strategists have been writing Kansas off as a lost cause in presidential elections, and Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 20% in Kansas in 2016. A Civiqs poll released in late May found Trump leading Biden by 12% in Kansas, but more recent polling has found that Trumpís lead over the former vice president in that state is down to the single digits.
In a state as Republican as Kansas, Trump should have a consistent double-digit lead. But then, Kansas is also where Democrat Laura Kelly, now Kansasí governor, achieved a surprising victory in 2018.

4. Montana

Montana, like Kansas, is a state that Trump won by 20% in 2016. But a recent Montana State University poll found Trump leading Biden by only 5% in Montana. And in Montanaís U.S. Senate race, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock is leading incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines by 7%. Those are not the type of numbers Republicans should be seeing in a state as red as Montana. ~ ~

https://www.alternet.org/2020/07/here-are-4-red-states-where-joe-biden-is-shockingly-competitive-with-trump/

14 replies, 987 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply "Here Are Four Red States Where Joe Biden Is Shockingly Competitive With Trump" (Original post)
appalachiablue Jul 14 OP
flor-de-jasmim Jul 14 #1
MyOwnPeace Jul 14 #2
MuseRider Jul 14 #3
beachbumbob Jul 14 #4
StevieM Jul 14 #12
beachbumbob Jul 15 #13
Gothmog Jul 14 #5
Aristus Jul 14 #6
yellowcanine Jul 14 #7
vercetti2021 Jul 14 #8
appalachiablue Jul 14 #9
vercetti2021 Jul 14 #10
appalachiablue Jul 14 #11
dalton99a Jul 15 #14

Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 07:45 AM

1. Please, Kentucky, get in line!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 07:51 AM

2. DAMN, that's good!!

Especially if Joe could take Texas - what a SLAM that would be!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 08:21 AM

3. I will be surprised

if Trump loses Kansas, surprised if it is single digit close. It should not be the blowout it was last time because most people here do not hate Biden as much as they do Clinton. I have not heard a single person say out loud the things they said about Hillary so with that I think it will be closer but still no cigar. Of course I would dearly love for Kansas not to support Trump in any way and to bring in our first Democratic Senator since the 30's. I am not counting on it but it does seem that it will be closer than before.

Laura Kelly was not a big surprise, we like our Democratic women governors here. Kobach was too close but she did win.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 08:40 AM

4. I would add Arizona as well as its been mostly a redstate for several election cycles and

thats about to change. Florida been a battle ground state for years and this time looking to go blue as well

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to beachbumbob (Reply #4)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 08:51 PM

12. We would have won Arizona in 2016 had it not been for Comey.

And I expect Biden to win it decisively in 2020.

I think Arizona is solidly purple at this point.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to StevieM (Reply #12)

Wed Jul 15, 2020, 08:15 AM

13. After 2020. Arizona will be a solid blue state

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 08:47 AM

5. Joe Biden is advertising in Texas

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 05:31 PM

6. Let's turn the whole country blue!

There are red states that I love, like Kentucky and Arizona, but can't really visit anymore due to their politics.

One always knows the good places to go in red states, as well as the places to steer clear of. When I was in Kentucky, and visiting Louisville (a fairly blue city anyway), I'd stick to the St. Mathews District, a very liberal area; I loved it...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 08:23 PM

7. Trump is under 50% and only up by 8 over Biden in Utah.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/utah/

I know, it's Mormon Utah, but still. That cannot be a source of rejoicing in the Trump camp. Mitt Romney effect?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 08:34 PM

8. Texas is the last line of defense for Republicans

Once Texas goes and stays Democratic. They'll never hold the presidency again

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to vercetti2021 (Reply #8)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 08:35 PM

9. Go Lonestar State, All the Way!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to appalachiablue (Reply #9)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 08:37 PM

10. Hopefully

Texas is changing too fast for the cons to prevent a shift. They might have accelerated it due to Trump and Abbott fumbling the pandemic response

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to vercetti2021 (Reply #10)

Tue Jul 14, 2020, 08:41 PM

11. Their recklessness has cost millions of lives and security

for generations, enough of the scourge.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to vercetti2021 (Reply #8)

Wed Jul 15, 2020, 10:19 AM

14. +1. Texas demographics have changed

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread