HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Editorials & Other Articles (Forum) » What if Trump loses but i...

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 07:18 PM

What if Trump loses but insists he won?

On his present trajectory, President Trump is heading for a whopping defeat in November. The Economist says there’s nearly a 99 percent chance that Joe Biden will win more popular votes and around a 90 percent chance that he will win more electoral college votes. But what if Trump won’t concede defeat? That is a nightmare scenario for our democracy that could make the 2000 showdown over Florida’s hanging chads seem like a grade-school dispute by comparison.

Trump is already laying the foundation to dispute the election outcome with his incessant claims that “Mail-In Ballots will lead to MASSIVE electoral fraud and a RIGGED 2020 Election.” Election officials label such concerns as “preposterous” and “false.” But they will serve as an excuse for the Republican Party to purge voter-registration rolls, limit mail-in ballots, close polling stations in minority areas and challenge in-person voting by minorities. Whatever it takes to win.

It’s doubtful that anything Trump does will produce a popular-vote victory; he lost by nearly 3 million votes in 2016 and will probably lose by a greater margin this year. But it won’t matter if, by election night, he is within spitting distance of an electoral college victory.

I recently took part in a “war game” to see what would happen under those circumstances. The session was organized by the Transition Integrity Project, a nonpartisan group founded by Rosa Brooks of Georgetown Law School and Nils Gilman of the Berggruen Institute. The scenario we were given predicted a narrow Biden victory in the electoral college: 278 to 260. Various participants played the role of the Trump campaign, the Biden campaign, Republican and Democratic elected officials, the news media, and other key players to see what would happen next.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/06/what-if-trump-loses-insists-he-won/

14 replies, 1053 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread

Response to Zorro (Original post)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 07:20 PM

1. NO ONE WILL FUCKING CARE, THEY WILL KICK HIS ORANGE ASS OUT

OR LOCK THE DOORS AS SOON AS HE LEAVES TO PLAY GOLF

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Skittles (Reply #1)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 07:36 PM

5. ++++++++++++++!!!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Skittles (Reply #1)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 08:21 PM

10. I say change the locks on the outside...

Joe can run this place from anywhere?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Zorro (Original post)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 07:23 PM

2. Can't we play this game too?

Can’t we claim that the Trump machine has fixed the vote and plans on “winning” by the electronic ballots and that it is easier to track ballots if done by mail? Or whatever.....
I am sure we could cough up something better.
Whatever it takes to cut his lies off at the pass.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Zorro (Original post)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 07:27 PM

3. Very interesting WashPo article.

The part that stood out for me:

In 2000, even two of the more moderate conservative justices — Sandra Day O’Connor and Anthony M. Kennedy — voted to end Florida’s recount and hand the election to George W. Bush. Could we count on Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. — the current swing vote — to resist similar pressure to vote for the “home team”?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to FM123 (Reply #3)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 07:34 PM

4. If the SOS certifies the vote, SCOTUS should have no say nt

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #4)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 07:50 PM

7. Yes.

I think the fear is that a few states won't certify, enough states to cause problems for us....

"So the result could be that Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida do not certify their electors, and Biden has lost those three states' votes. There are still not enough votes for Trump, but Biden does not hit the 270 threshold in the Electoral College to be elected president."

https://www.salon.com/2020/06/15/investigative-journalist-greg-palast-heres-how-trump-will-steal-the-2020-election/

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to FM123 (Reply #7)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 08:09 PM

9. Ah but there lies the fallacy of 270 needed to win

If a state is blocked from certifying the popular vote, and thus appointing their electors, the threshold for winning drops as well.

Not so fast.

The 12th amendment states:
The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.


I don’t think Palast or others who have promoted this theory have taken this fully into consideration.

The amount of EV’s needed to win depends on the Total number Of electors appointed, so, if Trump succeeds in blocking some electors, the total needed to win drops - Trump hopes it will give him an edge, but with so many states becoming competitive, he will have to challenge the will of the people in more than four swing states.

If Fl, WI and OH don’t appoint their electors, then the total needed to win drops to 242 instead of 270. If Biden still wins MI, NH and NC, he wins the WH with 257 EV’s. If he wins PA, then he gets 277 EV’s.

The most Trump can hope for with FL, OH and WI excluded is 224 EV’s, and that’s assuming he takes PA, NV, and AZ, which at this point is highly unlikely.

While it is plausible that Trump may attempt this nightmare scenario, it is highly unlikely it will succeed.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #9)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 08:41 PM

11. Yes, it is not likely that he will succeed at this or any shady scenario

but Floridians (like me) got burned so bad in 2000, we can not feel 100% confident going into November especially with trumpy disciples Lee as our S.O.S. and DeSantis as our governor. I really do believe Biden will win, but I also believe that trump will try to pull something, just to make our lives miserable.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to FM123 (Reply #11)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 08:42 PM

12. He will wreak havoc and chaos, not doubt, and will put all our institutions and systems to the test

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Zorro (Original post)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 07:50 PM

6. They will take him out in a straight jacket if necessary.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Zorro (Original post)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 07:56 PM

8. this says it all...


Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Zorro (Original post)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 09:34 PM

13. He does not need to concede but a new president will be sworn in then he's out.

Of course he will whine and tweet how unfair life is to him, I think we all expect that. I guarantee that he will be ushered out of the White House at noon on January 20th if he chooses to not go willingly.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Zorro (Original post)

Tue Jul 7, 2020, 12:08 PM

14. What do you mean "if?" He was preparing to say he had been cheated the first time around.

There is no question he will claim that he won.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread