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Wed Jul 1, 2020, 03:03 AM

'Analysis Warns 11% of Those Unemployed Due to Pandemic Have 'Zero Chance' of Getting Job Back'

Last edited Wed Jul 1, 2020, 11:09 AM - Edit history (1)

"Analysis Warns 11% of Those Unemployed Due to Pandemic Have 'Zero Chance' of Getting Job Back.""The 10.7% number represents the hard floor that we'll bump up against when the virus vanishes, leaving us in a Great Recession level unemployment situation." By Eoin Higgins, Common Dreams, July 29, 2020.

The ongoing economic crisis sparked by the coronavirus pandemic will leave over 17 million workers without a job to return to once the outbreak is over, according to a new analysis from the Economic Policy Institute's Heidi Shierholz, who also predicts without sustained and continued federal action 10 million or more jobs could be lost in the next year.
"Of the 32.5 million workers who are either officially unemployed or otherwise out of work because of the virus, only 14.8 million workers (or 45.6%) can reasonably expect to be called back to a prior job, which means 17.6 million (or 54.4%) cannot," Shierholz writes.

Even if that number holds, Bloomberg's Noah Smith tweeted, it's s best-case scenario that would keep the economy at Great Recession levels of unemployment. - "Rabbits are easy to litter-train" Smith @Noahpinion The 10.7% number represents the hard floor that we'll bump up against when the virus vanishes, leaving us in a Great Recession level unemployment situation. - - Heidi Shierholz @hshierholz TL;DR: In May, the official unemp rate was 13.3%, the rate that takes into account all those who are out of work as a result of the virus was 19.7%, and the rate that includes only those who have no chance of being called back to a prior job was 10.7%. https://epi.org/blog/nearly-11-of-the-workforce-is-out-of-work-with-zero-chance-of-getting-called-back-to-a-prior-job/… 4:22 PM · Jun 29, 2020 -

The institute's senior economist and director of policy, Shierholz has been tracking the real unemployment numbers since the beginning of the crisis as the pandemic has decimated the labor market. More sunny than expected unemployment news in May gave the wrong impression about the ongoing catastrophe, she explains in her analysis Monday.
"Some are saying that because rehiring took place in May and the unemployment rate improved, perhaps more aid from Congress isn't needed because workers will just return to their old jobs," writes Shierholz. "This logic could not be more misguided."
- Economic Policy Institute @EconomicPolicy New research from @Hshierholz finds that nearly 11% of the workforce is out of work with zero chance of getting called back to a prior job -Nearly 11% of the workforce is out of work with zero chance of getting called back to a prior job. Key takeaways: In May, the official unemployment rate was 13.3%. However, the unemployment rate that takes into account all those who are out of work as a result of the virus was 19.7%, and the...epi.org

In addition to the jobs that are lost and not returning, Shierholz warns that without continued—and increased—federal intervention in the economy, another more than 10 million jobs will disappear through next year. As Shierholz details: It is important to note that the prospect of even those who can reasonably expect to be called back to a prior job actually getting called back will require Congress to act. For example, if Congress doesn't extend the extra $600 in weekly unemployment insurance payments, that will cost us 5.1 million jobs over the next year, and if it doesn't provide fiscal aid to state and local governments to fill in their budget shortfalls, it will cost another 5.3 million jobs by the end of 2021.

Bottom line, writes Shierholz, the federal government must continue its involvement in ensuring the unemployment levels stay as low as possible. "We can't turn off federal relief too early," she writes.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/06/29/analysis-warns-11-those-unemployed-due-pandemic-have-zero-chance-getting-job-back

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Reply 'Analysis Warns 11% of Those Unemployed Due to Pandemic Have 'Zero Chance' of Getting Job Back' (Original post)
appalachiablue Jul 1 OP
PoindexterOglethorpe Jul 1 #1
duforsure Jul 1 #2

Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 03:36 AM

1. That actually seems optimistic.

The permanent structural changes that are going to happen because of this are almost unfathomable.

A lot of jobs will disappear. Especially a lot of service jobs, such as in restaurants. And probably a lot of retail.

Example: I needed to purchase a replacement keyboard for my computer, and I ordered it through Best Buy, to be picked up at my local store. Which I did. In the past I'd have gone into the store, done some browsing, and then bought the keyboard. I might possibly have purchased something else. Now, nothing but the keyboard.

Normally I'd have bought some clothes in the past few months. I need to see if the store I prefer is allowing people to try on clothes. Even though I'm a reasonably standard size, I still need to try things on, both for fit and if I like it. So I haven't bought any new clothes since February.

And my two examples don't even begin to address the truly fundamental changes that are going on. I've read that if a lot of employees who can work at home continue to do so, commercial office space will not be needed as much. Which will also impact the economy.

I like to offer this analogy: Pretend it's June, 1939, and you and I are planning a trip to Europe. We've been saving up, and we'll be going to Rome, Paris, Madrid, and London. It will be a wonderful trip. But then, in September, WWII breaks out. Our trip is on indefinite hold. We hope the war will end soon. But no, it doesn't. It lasts a lot longer than we'd hoped. The soonest we might possibly make this trip, if we even do, is 1946. And the Europe we visit is vastly different from the Europe we'd planned on in 1939. And so it is with this virus. Things are going to change, at least as drastically as Europe did from 1939 to 1946.

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Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 05:09 AM

2. I think the numbers unemployed and lost their jobs permanently

Are a lot higher , and we will edge towards a depression from trump and McConnell's stalling stimulus getting to the people in large enough amounts to turn this economic disaster around in time. I think trumps making it worse , and driving us into a depression now.

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