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Thu May 28, 2020, 04:36 PM

BTRTN 2020 Presidential Race State-by-State Snapshot: Extremely Early, But Biden Clearly Ahead

Born To Run The Numbers provides an up-to-the-minute snapshot of the state of the Presidential race, broken down state by state:


Excerpts: "It is early, to be sure, a lifetime until November in a race that will be far more unpredictable than ever, given the unprecedented impact of the coronavirus on our nation’s health and economy, and almost certainly the very election process itself...
"Biden can almost certainly count on the electoral votes from 18 voting entities (16 states, DC and one Maine district) totaling 210 blue votes on the path to 270; Trump can count on 20 states (plus two Nebraska districts)for a total of 125 solid red electoral votes. Thus, the outcome of the race will almost surely depend on 13 swing states (plus one district in Maine and one in Nebraska), holding 203 electoral votes, where either candidate has at least a shot of winning...
"There have been a total of 46 polls conducted in these 13 swing states over the past three months; Biden has led in 31, Trump in 13, with two ties. Biden leads the early polling in ten of the 13 states, while Trump is ahead in three. According to our BTRTN model, if the elections were held today, Biden would have a 73% chance of winning the presidency... The swing state polling paints a clear picture, but is just one of many data points that are problematic for Trump, including:
--His relatively low approval rating of 44%; only George W. Bush won re-election with an approval rating of less than 50%, at 48%. And Bush, of course, barely won.
--The low (and partisan-driven) assessment of his handling of the coronavirus, with 50% disapproving to 42% approving
--The shattering of Trump’s “trump card,” the healthy state of the economy, by the pandemic
--The generic ballot, which consistently shows the Democrats ahead of the GOP by 6-10 points, on average about +8 of late..."

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