An Immigration Debate Distinct From Economic Realities
By Gerald F. Seib
Here is a summary of some recent news items:
The American birthrate has slowed dramatically, with the number of babies born in the U.S. last year hitting a 30-year low. At the same time, Alaska fisheries, New Hampshire restaurants and Maryland crab processors all say they are critically short of workers. Farmers say they need thousands more workers, and some production is moving overseas for lack of labor. There are 6.6 million job openings in the U.S., which means that, for the first time in history, there are enough openings to provide a job for every unemployed person in the country.
Meantime, the House of Representatives virtually ground to a halt last Friday because some Republican lawmakers are demanding a vote on a bill that would lower legal—not illegal, but legal—immigration. If you sense a disconnect here, it is because the immigration debate of 2018 seems disconnected from economic realities.
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When the federal government made this year’s allotment of H-2B visas for low-skilled foreign workers available in January, it instantly received thousands more applications than the 66,000 legally available. Demand was so high the visas were awarded by lottery. Now, the government will likely make an additional 15,000 H-2B visas available for the year, though businesses would like thousands more. The search for more highly skilled workers is even more urgent. The NFIB says that 22% of small-business owners say finding qualified workers is their single most important business problem, more than those who cite taxes or regulations.
(snip)
That declining birthrate means that, absent immigration, the country’s population is in a long-term aging process. That is what happens when Americans live longer, and there are fewer new ones born to fill in at the workplace behind them.
Indeed, demographers think that in the next three decades, the share of Americans aged 65 and older will surpass the share of Americans aged 18 and younger—a historic crossing of demographic lines.
Put it all together and you have a picture of a country that not only can handle immigrants, but one that should want them and actually may need them. Yet the climate is more hostile toward immigrants and immigration than at any time in recent memory.
(snip)
Immigration foes say clamping down on immigration will compel employers to raise wages for native Americans. Yet it also appears that the anti-immigration mood is rooted as much in cultural sentiment—an understandable feeling among many Americans that they are losing control of their country and its traditions—as in economic dislocation. The quest to control America’s borders has morphed into much broader sentiments.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-immigration-debate-distinct-from-economic-realities-1526908154 (paid subscription)
