Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

xchrom

(108,903 posts)
Tue Feb 28, 2012, 01:02 PM Feb 2012

Syriana redux: The Middle East fragments

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NB29Ak02.html

National borders from the eastern Mediterranean to the Iranian border were made after the breakup of the Ottoman Empire in 1918. Britain and France, with little consideration for sectarian or ethnic realities, drew lines across the area and established the new countries of Iraq and Syria.

As authoritarian regimes disappear under the weight of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and the ongoing uprising in Syria, regional boundaries may be redrawn by indigenous peoples and regional powers. Five new states could emerge: Shi'ite Iraq, Sunni Iraq, Sunni Syria, Greater Kurdistan, and Shi'ite Syria.

Shi'ite Iraq

Sunnis governed the Mesopotamian area since the time of the
Ottomans, as they did after the British installed the Hashemite monarchy to govern Iraq in the 1920s and also under later rulers, including Saddam Hussein. Nonetheless, Iraq was, and is, overwhelmingly Shi'ite - at least 60% today, perhaps much more owing to Sunnis' fleeing to Syria over the last few years.

Representative democracy in Iraq, however tentative and imperfect it presently is, will always mean Shi'ite rule. Representative democracy also means ties to Iran - not simply because of sectarian affinities, but also because Iran organized many of Iraq's political movements and militia bands during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-89). All this should have been clear before the US invaded in 2003, as should the prospects for fragmentation.
Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Editorials & Other Articles»Syriana redux: The Middle...