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Thu Jul 7, 2016, 01:00 PM


Trumpís Uphill Fight: The States Where The White Population Has Declined The Most

From FiveThirtyEight.com.....

Jul 7, 2016 at 6:33 AM
By David Wasserman

It could be said that the 2016 presidential election is once again a question of economics versus demographics. On one hand, wage stagnation and a narrow economic recovery have contributed to the anxiety that fueled Donald Trumpís rise. But if he wants to beat Hillary Clinton, heíll need to swim against a powerful demographic tide that continues to aid Democrats in the race for 270 electoral votes.

On June 23, the Census Bureau unveiled its latest population estimates for states and counties by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin. According to the data, the non-Hispanic white share of the nationís voting age population fell from 66.6 percent to 64.6 percent over the past four years.

Technically, this data covers the period from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2015, but thatís as good a metric as we have for gauging the changing complexion of the electorate between the 2012 and 2016 elections. (Itís also important to note that these estimates include non-citizens, who are ineligible to vote. But according to separate Census data, the non-Hispanic white share of voting-age citizens fell from 71.1 percent to 69.9 percent from 2012 to 2014, a two-year period Ė closely tracking the other estimates).

In 2012, President Obama carried the national popular vote by 3.9 percentage points. The exact white share of the 2012 electorate is still in dispute, but 2012ís exit polls pointed toward Obama carrying 81 percent of non-whites and 39 percent of whites. Hypothetically, if 2012 rates of turnout and support by group were to remain constant, Democratsí popular vote advantage would swell to 5.1 percentage points in 2016 thanks to demographic shifts alone.


Uphill Fight? I'd say the Donald's task is nothing short of Sisyphean!

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