The Afghanistan equation: U.S. + Taliban + Pakistan = peace?

[xchrom]

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-0208-tomsen-afghanistan-20120208,0,4105672.story

In 1989, soon after I was appointed U.S. special envoy and ambassador on Afghanistan, the late mujahedin commander Abdul Haq conveyed a warning to me. Attempts by foreigners to organize the unruly, unpredictable and divided Afghan people would always fail, he said. He compared such efforts to a bazaar merchant trying to balance the weight of frogs on opposite trays of a produce scale. The merchant can load frogs on one tray. But as he begins to load the second tray, some of the frogs on the first one will inevitably jump off. And as he reloads them, frogs on the second tray will leap to the ground. Eventually, even the most determined merchant will give up.

I have thought of that analogy often during the last year, as the United States and Germany have reached out to Mullah Mohammed Omar's Taliban in Pakistan. The diplomacy has been cloaked in secrecy, though occasional news of it has leaked out. And now, it has apparently produced a tentative agreement, yet to be implemented, to open a Taliban office in Qatar to begin more serious negotiations.

But these efforts seem unlikely to lead to a successful negotiated settlement of the differences between the Taliban and the Afghan government.

So far, it has been American and German diplomats — with behind-the-scenes participation by Pakistan — powering the process. The Afghan government was not even aware of key aspects of the negotiations until December. That's problematic.

[Fumesucker]

1. I think the equation is a little different..

US + Taliban + Pakistan = Profit

[cbrer]

2. The author's characterization

Of Afghani natives mirrors my own (limited) experience. I would only add "industrious, and devout". These people aren't going to fall into line for anybody. Much less the "plan" America has outlined for them.