Ignore the Noise in Washington and Tehran. An Iran Nuclear Deal Is Still Likely
Despite the criticisms around the Iran negotiations, a deal is still more likely than not. But the real challenge will be implementation
In his first public comments after the U.S. and Iran settled on a nuclear framework agreement, Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei pulled no punches: The whole problem comes now that the details should be discussed, because the other side is stubborn, difficult to deal with, breaks promises and is a backstabber.
Critics quickly pointed to the statement as proof that hopes for a final deal are evaporating. But the Ayatollahs combative words dont move the needle on whether well get a final deal by the June 30 deadline.
Khamenei is posturing for two separate audiences. His hardline supporters in Iran could undermine his political authority if they believe he is capitulating to the West. The Ayatollah needs to placate this group while his negotiators, led by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, hammer out a deal behind closed doors. His second audience is the Western negotiators with whom he is trying to drive a hard bargain. Khameneis comments put more pressure on them, and sends a signal to his own negotiators not to cede ground.
But Khamenei authorized Irans president to appoint negotiators to work out a deal. The Supreme Leader has praised those negotiators via Twitter. The talks couldnt have progressed this far if Khamenei wasnt serious about getting a deal done to escape Western sanctions.
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http://time.com/3830214/ian-bremmer-iran-nuclear-deal/