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Mon Dec 19, 2011, 11:06 AM

Paul leads in Iowa

Paul leads in Iowa

Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.

Paul's ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa. 22% of voters think he's run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it's 'very important' that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa. Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.

Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich. He's really going to need that younger than normal electorate because with seniors Romney's blowing him out 31-15 with Gingrich coming in 2nd at 18%. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters. Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/paul-leads-in-iowa.html

24 replies, 3590 views

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Arrow 24 replies Author Time Post
Reply Paul leads in Iowa (Original post)
kpete Dec 2011 OP
comipinko Dec 2011 #1
rfranklin Dec 2011 #2
coalition_unwilling Dec 2011 #8
Denninmi Dec 2011 #3
CanonRay Dec 2011 #4
think Dec 2011 #5
DocMac Dec 2011 #7
CanonRay Dec 2011 #9
DocMac Dec 2011 #11
CanonRay Dec 2011 #22
warrior1 Dec 2011 #6
coalition_unwilling Dec 2011 #10
jakeXT Dec 2011 #12
Uncle Joe Dec 2011 #13
wordpix Dec 2011 #14
arbusto_baboso Dec 2011 #20
agentS Dec 2011 #23
Orangepeel Dec 2011 #15
kenfrequed Dec 2011 #16
pampango Dec 2011 #17
GodlessBiker Dec 2011 #18
SoapBox Dec 2011 #19
melonkali Dec 2011 #21
JoePhilly Dec 2011 #24

Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 11:07 AM

1. Goooooooo Batshit !!!!!!!!!!!!

 

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 11:11 AM

2. My BIL's brother was saying how he was for Ron Paul and the flat tax this weekend...

 

I was trying to explain to him how he would probably be more taxed than he is now but somehow he thinks it is fairer than a progressive tax, because everyone "pays the same."

He lives in NJ if that provides any perspective.

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Response to rfranklin (Reply #2)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 11:50 AM

8. New Jersey: 'Deliverance' on snow mobiles (to steal

 

a line from the SNL character playing New York Governor David Patterson)

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 11:15 AM

3. Wow, aren't we running out of months for "flavor of the month".

Paul would be a great nominee for our side. Nutso plus would get zippo support from the Repug insiders.

But, I doubt that he will even win anything, let alone get to nomination land.

Probably gonna be Mittens.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 11:20 AM

4. Question: If the only two Republicans left were Kim Jong Um and Romney

would Romney trail, 23-20%?

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Response to CanonRay (Reply #4)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 11:25 AM

5. Thanks for the laugh :D

 

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Response to CanonRay (Reply #4)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 11:46 AM

7. Um, Kim Jong Un. lol nt

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Response to DocMac (Reply #7)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 11:51 AM

9. Um, I had it Un-correct

sorry.

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Response to CanonRay (Reply #9)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 12:52 PM

11. Maybe Kim Jong Un

will name his son Kim Jong Um?

I'm starting to wonder if Il = Jr. and Un = III.

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Response to DocMac (Reply #11)

Tue Dec 20, 2011, 10:50 AM

22. Isn't the last word (name) their first name?

In English it would be Il Kim and his son, Un Kim. I don't know Korean so I'm thinking I remember this from somewhere.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 11:30 AM

6. old crazy

racist homophobic Paul. Of course he's again, he's the nuttiest.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 11:53 AM

10. What is interesting to me (as DUer GrantCart has pointed out) is that

 

Romney cannot seem to capitalize on the misfortunes of his competition. His support in Iowa seems stuck at 20%, no matter who is currently 'imploding'.

Does Romney max out at 20-25% nationwide? If so, there's no way he can win the nomination on the first ballot and we're looking at a brokered convention (which would be really cool, in an anthropological sense

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 01:05 PM

12. Youngturks on the it doesn't count meme



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Response to jakeXT (Reply #12)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 01:38 PM

13. Paul by far isn't perfect but the corporate supremacist loving corporate media are afraid of him.

That's a nice response to FOX "News" brainwashing by Cenk.

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Response to Uncle Joe (Reply #13)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 01:56 PM

14. and at least Paul would stop the endless war machine the repukes love so well

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Response to wordpix (Reply #14)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 03:43 PM

20. No, he wouldn't.

Paul voted FOR the war in Afghanistan.

And if you look at his positions more closely, you'll see he isn't against war generally. Just when it doesn't make money for the US.

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Response to jakeXT (Reply #12)

Tue Dec 20, 2011, 11:22 AM

23. This is one time out of a handful that I have disagree with Cenk

He's right about Obama because Iowa Democratic caucuses are not populated with social conservative nutcases. Their views are more consistent with mainstream Americans than their Repub counterparts. Thereafter, it's easier to translate a victory there into success in other areas. Hillary didn't do badly in Iowa either and went on win N.H. and maintain serious credibility.

Case in point- Huckabee. Won Iowa and didn't do well elsewhere.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 02:02 PM

15. I wonder if Paul's supporters will be successful in a caucus environment...

I can easily see them being out maneuvered by more experienced, establishment folks. My prediction is that Romney wins Iowa, which will propel him in NH and cement his nomination.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 02:11 PM

16. He won't last

His fans are rabid and excited but his victory is unlikely. Romney will take New Hampshire, Paul may or may not thake Iowa. Usually though the important state in the republican primary is South Caronlina I think.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 03:02 PM

17. "Why Doesn't the Tea Party Love Ron Paul?"

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2011/12/why-doesnt-tea-party-love-ron-paul/46393/

In October, Paul said the difference between Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party was that the protesters of the former are "Scared to death they won't get their handouts," while the latter are "sick and tired of paying for it," NBC News reported. "Iím on the side of sick and tired of paying for it," Paul explained. But the Tea Party doesn't want him on their side. While the Tea Party has an image of libertarian political novices spurred to action against government spending -- and not all that interested in social issues -- polls show that's not true.

In October 2010, a Public Religion Research Institute study found that more than half of Tea Partiers say America is a "Christian nation" -- more than the 40 percent of evangelicals who think that. They're social conservatives on same sex marriage. Another poll last year found that 88 percent of supporters of the Tea Party support Arizona's tough immigration crackdown. This fall, 60 percent of Tea Party Republicans said the best way to ensure peace was through "military strength" -- compared to 47 percent of Republicans and 31 percent of voters over all, the Pew Research Center found. The survey found that 81 percent of Tea Party Republicans want military spending to stay the same or increase.

Those positions are at odds with Paul's. He thinks government should get out of the marriage business altogether. He wants to cut military spending and engage Iran. In the primary debates, Paul has said that if the U.S. tries to build a fence along the border with Mexico, it might be not so much about keeping illegal immigrants out, but keeping Americans in.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 03:20 PM

18. Go Tootsie go!

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 03:32 PM

19. Ah yes...Ron Paul...Suckling from the Teat of Government since 1976!

...this clown has been sucking off of the tax payers since he first went into office.

He's old...he's tired...he's a nut!

And as flavor of the month for the GOPBagger Party...boring!

I just hope that the Baggers pick themselves a super-duper freak from the GOPBagger Clown Car. If so,
it will be a landslide for President Obama.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Dec 19, 2011, 04:09 PM

21. and Huntman's on the left side of the decimal point!

 

They don't realize what they have in Huntsman -- and I hope that ignorance continues.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Dec 20, 2011, 12:00 PM

24. Hilarious

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