Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego announces Senate bid in challenge to Kyrsten Sinema

I wonder how she’s going to react to this. I expect nothing but the worst.

"switching affiliation" during one's term should trigger a recall.

Great kick-off video! I think Arizona will like him better than Sinema. Now who is going to take his place in the House?

Because if not, I'm afraid the GOP could take back this seat in a 3 way race.

It’s all up to senator Sinema. Time will answer whether she runs or not. I think by summer’s end we’ll know.

Why bother?

She knows she cant win. Not as a dem, not as an independant.

But she can try to play kingmaker.

If she runs, its possible she can pull enough dem support to let the republican win. If she doesnt, she doesnt. So.. she will want to get paid. Who will pay more? Who knows, i guess we will see.

...to eventually join some RW Pacs or think tanks (as if any R's even think anymore!) or become a media talking head. No kidding, she's gotten so, so much money from mainly R wing organizations, R leaning corporations and R wing leaning pharma firms she doesn't need a low paying Senators job at all. Also, I bet she will not even file to run again as she'd need to spend some of that moola.

Just watch......

senator in Congress? If she no longer has the power to sabotage the good legislation Dems try to pass?

Will he be able to challenge her if she is an Independent and he is a Democrat?

I hope he gives her a well-earned political ass-whooping

Or, perhaps Sinema doesn't run as Indie in the 2024 GE and it's down to Gallego-Lake?

I like Gallego's chances in the latter. He gets the support of the left and the lion's share of moderate/independent voters.

In the former 3-way race scenario, with the right solidifying for Lake, would independent voters tend to split the vote between Gallego and Sinema, providing Lake with an advantage? I see that being a closer split than a 2-way race.

Kyrsten Sinema won't be running in the Democratic primary race.

I hope Reuben Gallego knocks her down a peg, or several pegs for that matter. I don't believe Sinema will have the support of either party when she tries to win another 6-year term. She's done.

In the democratic primary.

Bernie Sanders has run for the Democratic nomination in VT despite being an Independent.

The rules to get on the ballot in Arizona are much more complicated. There are requirements of signatures per district, total number of signatures and then having to actually win the primary by a voter base that generally dislikes her but where she is despised by many. As a Democrat, this is a high hill to climb for her.

As an independent, the party to which she switched to at the beginning of this election cycle, she only needs signatures to get on the ballot. As long as no other independent gets the necessary signatures, she is on the ballot alone.

Hoping it's a tough threshold.

The hypothetical ham sandwich would beat her. I can't emphasize enough how she is hated by the party here.

If she runs as an independent she will draw more R votes than D.

His announcement video is beyond brilliant and he will capture a very high Hispanic vote including conservative Hispanics.

I think he can win the General. My guess is Sinema doesn't run.

She's too socially liberal to garner more than 5% of Republicans. 10-15% of Democrats will support her.

When she ran for Senate not one word was said about her sexuality. It was common knowledge that her Republican opponent is gay.

There has already been polling out that running against a generic R and a generic D she would pull equally from R and D and she would be in third place.

But she won't be running against generic candidates. Gallego will be very popular among Democrats, and the R will be a nutjob i.e. Ward or Lake.

Gallego's theme of pursuing the American dream (video) is going ignite the Hispanic population even conservative Hispanics.

Sinema was really never really popular even in the Democratic party. Gabby cleared the field for her. I spent hundreds of hours on her Senate campaign and the main motivation was keeping the Republican out. She burned a lot of bridges by not doing basic things. Volunteers never got a thank you, no celebration party and no chance to meet the candidate at a meet and greet. She is a spectacularly bad retail campaigner and has built up no reservoir of affection in the party. AFAIK she makes no Arizona visits as Senator and has made more trips to Europe than Phoenix over the last 4 years. She would be humiliated in a landslide if she ran in the Dem party. All of her consultants (ie fundraiser infrastructure) have abandoned her.

When he didn't win the nomination (both times), he switched back. Sinema is not switching back. She would lose the Democratic primary, and that's why she switched in the first place.

She’s not going to “UN-independent” herself to run in a primary she’s sure to lose.

She’d much rather be a spoiler in the general.

She can't win a primary.

She would lose a democratic primary, and then be barred from being on the general election ballot.

She would have to spend money to be humiliated.. and it would literally get her nothing that she wouldnt have without doing so.

Conversely if she skips that she has the option to run as an independent. And solicit donations and or job offers from those who dont want her to run, and those who do want her to run.

Marc Kelly got 51.4 percent of the vote in a 3 way race that was really 2 main parties and a +/-2% person

The Republican High Water Mark is about 46.5 percent

If she (Sinema) holds on to 7 of her supporters, a republican gets elected. George Santos could pull 7 percent if he ran today in NY, She will pull 7%. She is garbage, an attention whore, a stain, you say it she is it, but, she has figured this out. if not her, a republican.

think of it this way

Blake Masters 46.5
Ruben Gallego 46.0
Kristin Sinema >7

If the Republicans run Lake or someone like her. Some Republicans just can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, so they hold their nose and vote for a far right winger instead even if they think they are too extreme for their taste. Sinema running as an Independent becomes an option for them.

I don't think the R high water mark is 46.5. With the right candidate they would go much higher. Masters was a flawed candidate who no one had heard of before the primary. I think Ducey would easily get 55 to 60%.

In a 3 way race, he is clearly the most dangerous.

Not really. Blake had no personality and ran a bad campaign. Crazy Kari Lake got over 49%. I think she would do better than Masters in that race.

I also think Sinema can get more than 7%, but who's knows? It's all guess work at this point.

I was born in Phoenix, raised in Tucson and have been watching Arizona politics for 40 years, the first 35 being relatively disappointing with very few bright spots for Democrats. As long as Maricopa County remained even marginally Republican, combined with the rural parts of the state that are heavily Republican, the GOP had the advantage. But Maricopa County's population growth has shifted it to the left, and in the last two election cycles, Democrats have won there by around 50,000 votes, which is decisive. Population growth from California, the Northeast and in the Latino community have been responsible for the shift. The eleven rural counties that are majority Republican add up to about a million and a half people, and they are balanced out by Pima County, which has just over a million people, and two rural counties, Coconino and Santa Cruz, which are about half a million, all three are majority Democrat. So Republicans won statewide on the Maricopa County margins, which are now slightly more Democratic.

Two more years, and the population growth will bring those Democratic margins up considerably. The vast majority of population growth is in Maricopa and Pima, and in Pinal County, south of Maricopa, where the percentage of Democratic voters is up 7% in less than a decade. In a Presidential election year, it's likely that Democratic voter margins in Maricopa county will exceed the 100,000 mark which will benefit Rueben Gallego's Senate run, along with a good shot at picking up two marginal house districts and the state legislature. So I think it's a good time for someone like Gallego to run. He will also take most independents and some moderate GOP.

and I think Sinema has had enough time to get rich quick, time to land her back out in the private sector, undoubtedly as a consultant, meaning connection hound for dirty deals with corrupt politicians.

He's got a real shot at this, he's well known in AZ and the people who put Sinema into office are totally disgusted with her.

Only a few bucks but it's important to show support in his effort to unseat Sinema.