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Fri Sep 30, 2022, 07:40 AM

Fed's preferred gauge shows inflation accelerated even more than expected in August

Source: CNBC

ECONOMY

Fedís preferred gauge shows inflation accelerated even more than expected in August

PUBLISHED FRI, SEP 30 2022 8:46 AM EDT

Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528
https://twitter.com/JEFF.COX.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
https://twitter.com/JEFFCOXCNBCCOM

Inflation in August was stronger than expected despite the Federal Reserveís efforts to bring down prices, according to data Friday that the central bank follows closely.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.6% for the month after being flat in July. That was faster than the 0.5% Dow Jones estimate and another indication that inflation is broadening. ... On a year-over-year basis, core PCE increased 4.9%, more than the 4.7% estimate and up from 4.7% the previous month.

Including gas and energy, headline PCE increased 0.3% in August, compared with a decline of 0.1% in July. It rose even with a sharp decline in gas prices that took the cost at the pump well below the nominal record above $5 a gallon earlier in the summer.

The Fed generally favors core PCE as the broadest indicator of where prices are heading as it adjusts for consumer behavior. In the case of either core or headline, the data Friday from the Commerce Department shows inflation running well above the central bankís 2% long-run target.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/30/pce-inflation-august-2022-inflation-accelerated-even-more-than-expected-in-august.html



MarketWatch had a placeholder in place, and the numbers were all out of whack:

>>>>>>
Source: MarketWatch

Annualized PCE inflation rate rises to 6.4% in August from prior monthís 6.2%

No link yet. I suspect they haven't got these numbers right. Check back.

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar?&mod=u.s.-economic-calendar
>>>>>>

I changed to a later and more accurate source.

-- -- -- -- -- --

https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2022-and-annual-update

September 30, 2022
Personal Income and Outlays, August 2022 and Annual Update

Personal income increased $71.6 billion, or 0.3 percent at a monthly rate, while consumer spending increased $67.5 billion, or 0.4 percent, in August. The increase in personal income primarily reflected increases in compensation and proprietors' income. The personal saving rate (that is, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 3.5 percent in August, the same rate as in July.

-- -- -- -- -- --

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EDT, Friday, September 30, 2022
BEA 22-47
Personal Income and Outlays, August 2022 and Annual Update

Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent) in August, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $67.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $67.5 billion (0.4 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.6 percent (table 9). Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in August and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent; goods decreased 0.2 percent and services increased 0.2 percent (tables 5 and 7).

{snip}

The increase in current-dollar personal income in August primarily reflected increases in compensation, proprietors' income, and government social benefits that were partly offset by a decrease in personal interest income (table 3). The increase in compensation was led by private wages and salaries. Within private wages and salaries, an increase in services-producing industries was partly offset by a decrease in goods-producing industries. The increase in proprietors' income reflected an increase in nonfarm income. The increase in government social benefits was mainly in Medicare.

The $67.5 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in August reflected an increase of $96.9 billion in spending for services that was partly offset by a decrease of $29.4 billion in spending for goods (table 3). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were spending for housing and utilities, transportation, and health care. Within goods, spending for gasoline and other energy goods was the leading contributor to the decrease. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.5U.

Personal outlays increased $67.8 billion in August (table 3). Personal saving was $652.8 billion in August and the personal saving rate--personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income--was 3.5 percent (table 1).

Prices

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.3 percent (table 9). Prices for goods decreased 0.3 percent and prices for services increased 0.6 percent. Food prices increased 0.8 percent and energy prices decreased 5.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.3.4U.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 6.2 percent (table 11). Prices for goods increased 8.6 percent and prices for services increased 5.0 percent. Food prices increased 12.4 percent and energy prices increased 24.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.9 percent from one year ago.

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Reply Fed's preferred gauge shows inflation accelerated even more than expected in August (Original post)
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 30 OP
durablend Sep 30 #1
JohnSJ Sep 30 #2
twodogsbarking Sep 30 #3
WarGamer Sep 30 #4
twodogsbarking Sep 30 #5

Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Sep 30, 2022, 08:39 AM

1. Corporate America:

"The beatings will continue until you rightfully put Republicans back in power"

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Sep 30, 2022, 09:28 AM

2. Maybe their guage needs to be restructured. Raising interest rates should moderate things such as

big item purchases, (houses, cars, etc.), but it won't account for shortages, the impact of the war in Ukraine, the problems left over from the trump trade wars and mishandling of the pandemic, etc.

Supply and Demand are distored by those elements, and until those are corrected, raising interest rates will not solve the inflation problems on non-big ticket items.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Sep 30, 2022, 10:49 AM

3. The inflation started more than two years ago and has not let up.

Predictions are easy when they are about the past.

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Response to twodogsbarking (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 30, 2022, 03:54 PM

4. No.

Two years ago we were in a pandemic caused 20% deflationary period, month over month...

By Spring of 2021 inflation had returned to "normal" levels and the vast majority of our current situation started in 2022.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/consumer-price-index-and-annual-percent-changes-from-1913-to-2008/

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Response to WarGamer (Reply #4)

Fri Sep 30, 2022, 08:18 PM

5. Yeah, ok, we'll go with that.

My personal experience differs from the government statistics.

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